The David Castillo, Dallas Stars fan, posted on Bluesky saying ‘nope’ to a possible Larkin-Robertson trade with an graphic that clearly showed Robertson as the better player. Without any intention to be critical of Castillo’s opinion, which I largely agree with anyway, I replied with the following:
Centers have more value than wingers and Robertson will have a higher salary but I still agree, Detroit would need to give up more for it to make sense for Dallas.
This led to a brief discussion on why this trade makes sense or not. I don’t want to re-litigate that discussion because I think Castillo and i largely agree but I wanted to take this opportunity to use my experience with the Calgary Flames to discuss how scenarios like Larkin and Robertson may play out and the need for teams to be creative when building rosters.
First, some thoughts on Larkin. A week or two ago word came out that Larkin had asked for a trade from the Detroit Red Wings, and rumours were he had provided a list of a handful of teams that he would waive his no trace clause to be traded to. The list is rumoured to include Minnesota, Vegas, Florida and possibly also Dallas and Tampa. The actual list doesn’t matter too much for this post, it is what happens when word gets out that a player like Dylan Larkin is potentially available.
Let’s start with a quick evaluation of Dylan Larkin. Larkin is a very good player, but I don’t consider him a franchise player. He is a reliable 30+ goal, 70+ point center. He is probably a #1 center in the sense that there are probably not 32 centers better than him in the NHL, but he also doesn’t have the elite offensive ability of the top centers that we typically consider #1 guys (McDavid, MacKinnon, Celebrini, Eichel, Matthews, etc.). He’s a consistently very good center that would improve several teams top line and almost every teams second line. A center like this is in high demand.
So, when word comes out that Larkin has asked for a trade the front offices of almost every NHL team should immediately ask, does it make sense for us to try to acquire Larkin? This should, and almost certainly will, include teams that are not rumoured to be on his trade list. A good NHL front office will leave no stone unturned. A good NHL front office will never let an opportunity to improve their team pass them by. A lot of teams will quickly conclude it doesn’t make sense. San Jose for example is developing their own young star centers and improving their defense is a higher priority. Edmonton has limited cap space and higher priorities than another #1/2C. But I could even see a team like Ottawa tossing the idea around on whether a Dylan Cozens (plus) for Dylan Larkin trade makes sense to upgrade their 2C behind Stutzle. A good management team has to think this way and if a trade makes sense for both Detroit and Ottawa, then you try to sell Larkin on Ottawa. Detroit has some cards to play here too as they could play hardball and tell Larkin his choice is play in Detroit, play in Ottawa, or don’t play at all. The broader point being, every team should be looking at Larkin and asking under what scenario would it make sense to try to acquire Larkin.
Now lets look at Jason Robertson. Jason Robertson is a star winger in the NHL. He just came off a 45 goal, 96 point season and his best season was 46 goals and 109 points. He is a star player that you can build a team around. He is also a winger, and in general a winger is less valuable than a center of similar talent level. He is also a restricted free agent looking for a new contract and he holds almost all the cards. This is a similar situation to what the Calgary Flames were in with Matthew Tkachuk. Robertson, like Tkachuk was, is one season away from unrestricted free agency. Dallas will have to make him a qualifying offer of $9.3M to retain his rights, which they will. Robertson could decide to accept the qualifying offer which would take him to free agency but more likely he will file for arbitration where he would almost certainly be awarded a 1-year contract significantly higher than $9.3M based on his performance this past season where he ranked 5th in goals and 10th in points.
There are several recent signings that would act as comps for Robertson. At the high end Kirill Kaprizov signed with an AAV of $17M. At the lower end Mitch Marner signed with an AAV of $12M, Martin Necas $11.5M, Adrian Kempa $10.625M, and teammate Mikko Rantanen at$12M. While Robertson’s stats are quite comparable to Kaprizov’s it is likely that an arbitrator would award something closer to Marner who signed after a 27 goal, 102 point season, or Rantanan who signed in the midst of a 32g, 88 point season (but had 100+ points the prior two seasons). Arbitration is really a gamble though and Robertson could get anything from $12-15M so Dallas would want a resolution before the arbitration award at the very latest. Ideally though, they would want a resolution before July 1st so they know how much salary cap space they have to make off season moves.
What is Robertson actually worth on the open market? I expect he could easily get $15M+ on the open market in 2027 with the amount that the salary cap is rising and I wouldn’t rule out something like Kaprizov’s contract.
This is where a Robertson for Larkin framework of a deal may start to make sense for Dallas. If Robertson is looking for a big payday rather than take a discount to play in Dallas then he may in fact price himself out of Dallas’ budget. If signing Robertson is going to cost you $14-15M but you could flip him for Larkin and his $8.7M contract and save $6M for other roster upgrades. Under this scenario the idea of a Robertson for Larkin (plus) trade gets a bit more interesting, especially for Dallas where you are a desirable destination for free agents and could do a lot with $6M in cap space. We all must remember, cap space has value too, especially for a desirable destination like Dallas.
There are a lot of variables at play here, including whether Robertson would want to sign in Detroit, but like I said above, a good organization never passes on an opportunity to improve their team so if there are any questions as to whether Dallas can re-sign Robertson without destroying their salary cap then you have to start exploring every other option available and it is quite possible that no team will be offering a better current NHL player than Detroit can with Larkin as good centers don’t come available very often. If I were Dallas, my opening offer to Detroit would be to get creative and go big and offer Robertson and Mavrik Bourque for Larkin and DeBrincat. Bourque had a bit of a breakout season with 21 goals and 41 points. He’s not and will not likely ever be a #1C but he’s young and would add to Detroit’s center mix and be a nice #2/3 center for them. I have no idea whether this would interest either team, but it represents the creative thinking that NHL teams need to have in their front offices.
In summary, when very good or star players become available, every team needs get creative and start asking themselves if and under what circumstances does acquiring that player make sense. Teams must never pass up an opportunity to improve your roster. Just look at the two Stanley Cup finalists. Neither of these two teams are afraid to make big bold moves and both have shown an ability to get creative in improving their teams. Also, as fans, we must never forget that creating salary cap space has value.