As a result of trading a number of core players the past several seasons, the Calgary Flames have accumulated a large number of draft picks in the 2026 NHL draft. We all know that more draft picks are better and higher draft picks are better, but realistically, to what extent could this draft be a game changing draft?
To answer a question like this I built a draft simulator which can be found on my site TheStanleyCap.com. This isn’t like a mock draft simulator in that it picks players from the upcoming draft, it is a simulator in that it randomly picks players from past drafts (2007-2018) that were drafted in similar draft positions to the draft picks that the user specifies. We know how those players turned out so that can give us a good idea of how likely a team is of drafting a good player.
We don’t know yet where exactly the Calgary Flames will draft with their draft picks but for the purposes of this work I specified the following ranges for the picks they own:
- CGY 1st, 1-3 Overall
- VGK 1st, 17-26 Overall
- CGY 2nd, 34-36 Overall
- NYR 2nd, 36-40 Overall
- OTT 2nd, 45-52 Overall
- UTA 2nd, 49-54 Overall
- VAN 3rd, 65-68 Overall
- CGY 3rd, 65-68 Overall
- CGY 4th, 97-105 Overall
- CGY 5th, 129-135 Overall
- CGY 6th, 161-168 Overall
I ran 10 simulations to get a good idea of the range of talent we could get from these draft selections.
Simulation 1
If this was your draft result, you would probably be quite disappointed. Tyler Seguin has been a very good player for most of his career, but falls short of being a franchise player. Is he a #1 center on a Stanley Cup contending team? Arguably he can and has been so while you’d be sastisfied drafting Seguin #1-3 overall, he isn’t the franchise player you’d hope for. The rest of this draft is pretty meh too. Mostly bottom of the roster and depth players. Overall this wouldn’t dramatically change the future of the Calgary Flames.
Simulation 2
I’d put Ekblad in a similar position as Seguin. He’s a very good defensemen but not quite at the franchise changing level and again, you would be satisfied drafting an Ekblad type with a 1-3 pick but not the franchise player you might hope for. To Ekblad you get a really nice top line goal scoring winger in Toffoli but not much else. I’d rank this better than Simulation 1, but again, I think this outcome would be below what most Flames fans (and management) would want with all those picks.
Simulation 3
The top of the draft starts out better with Steven Stamkos. Stamkos is more the franchise player you hope for than the Seguin’s and Ekblad’s. Stamkos is a truly elite goal scorer you can build a franchise around. After Stamkos though it is pretty meh again. Is this a better outcome than Simulation 2? I don’t know. You get Stamkos, but is he worth more than Ekblad and Toffoli? Maybe.
Simulation 4
A few more ‘hits’ here but is there a franchise player? Jason Robertson is close to one but franchise players are usually centers or defensemen. Nevertheless, you got yourself an elite first line winger in the second round. You have also landed yourself a second line center (?) in Dubois, though at times he looks more like a 3rd line center. Add in a trio of 3rd pair defensemen (Del Zotto, Peake, Holl) and this is probably the top draft so far.
Simulation 5
Pretty disappointing top pick. At times Turris looked like a second line center, but mostly he looked like a 3rd liner. Chabot is a very nice #2D on a cup contender and Romanov is a solid middle pair defender so you add some nice pieces to a future defense and Pospisil looks like a useful bottom 6 guy. This isn’t a terrible draft, but there is no truly elite player here.
Simulation 6
This looks a little like Simulation 5 but a bit better. There are no franchise players but Drouin and Copp are useful 2nd/3rd line players and Chabot, Fehervary and Pelech would be a good foundation for a very good defense. No franchise players, but five good additions to a franchise.
Simulation 7
Well, now you are talking. You get your franchise center in Stamkos plus you add a pair of good defensemen, those more defensively minded, in McNabb and Hamonic. This is probably the best draft yet landing a franchise center plus two more good pieces.
Simulation 8
Once again, you are happy drafting Hischier, but he isn’t the franchise player you hope for in a top 3 pick. After that there isn’t much to get excited about. Noesen and Harkins are useful bottom 6 players but nothing to get too excited about. Hischier makes this not a total disaster but this isn’t what I think most Calgary fans would hope for.
Simulation 9
Jason Robertson, Taylor Hall and Warren Foegele are a nice trio of wingers (one for each of your top 3 lines?) and Ekholm is a top pairing defensemen. I think this is the best draft so far landing yourself at least one top line winger plus a top pair defenseman and a few more pieces.
Simulation 10
There is some good players here but nothing to overcome the massive bust with the top pick. Norris, Clifford, DeBrincat and Marchenko are all solid forwards, but if you had these four guys in the prime of their careers on your roster you’d still need to add a lot of superior talent around them to make them a Cup contender.
So, what do you think? Are these draft scenarios better or worse than you expected. How many of these drafts meet the average Flames fans hopes and dreams? How many of these drafts would be truly franchise changing? Personally, I think #9 and #7 are the best outcomes and #2 and #3 being good as well, but not adding as much depth as #9 and #7.