The off-season rumours are now picking up steam and one going around the past couple days is that the Buffalo Sabres might buy out the remaining three years of Jeff Skinners contract. This I think would be a mistake and be an act of desperation on the part of Sabres management that would hinder their rebuild. Let me explain.
The Buffalo Sabres are a young team with a core of young players.
- Alex Tuch 28
- Tage Thompson 26
- Dylan Cozens 23
- Peyton Kreps 23
- Jack Quinn 22
- JJ Peterka 22
- Henri Jokiharhu 25
- Rasmus Dahlin 24
- Bowen Byram 23
- Owen Power 21
Now compare that to this years two remaining teams competing for the Stanley Cup. McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Kane, Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Ekholm, Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Tarasenko, Bennett, Verhaeghe, Ekblad, Forsling, Montour, Ekman-Larsson are all 26 or older. On both rosters the only players under age 25 are Lundell, Holloway, McLeod, and Bouchard. Last season the cup winning Vegas Golden Knights were even older. Despite all the talk that this is a younger, faster, more skilled league, young teams just don’t compete for the Stanley Cup and struggle to make the playoffs. Cup contending teams usually have rosters dominated by players between age 26 and 32 with maybe a few older players and a few younger players.
When you look at the Sabres, their window to become Stanley Cup contenders is probably 4-10 years from now when their core players listed above are all 25+ years old. This means Jeff Skinner, currently 32 years old and 3 years remaining on his contract, is probably not a fit for those contending teams.
| Season | Keep | 2024 Buyout | 2025 Buyout | 2026 Buyout |
| 2024-25 | $9,000,000 | $1,444,445 | $9,000,000 | $9,000,000 |
| 2026-27 | $9,000,000 | $4,444,445 | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 |
| 2027-28 | $9,000,000 | $6,444,445 | $6,000,000 | $5,666,667 |
| 2028-29 | $2,444,445 | $2,000,000 | $1,666,667 | |
| 2029-30 | $2,444,445 | $2,000,000 | ||
| 2030-31 | $2,444,445 |
A buyout of Jeff Skinner this summer puts nearly $2.5M of dead cap space on their books for the first 3 seasons of their Stanley Cup contender windows. If they buy Jeff Skinner out this summer they only benefit they get is for the 2024-25 season. For every other season they would be better off buying him out next summer. So, if they buyout Jeff Skinner this summer it would be a decision where management prioritizes the 2024-25 season over their cup contending seasons. That can only be considered a short term desperation move and a mistake for a young team looking to contend a few years from now.
To keep their most free cap space for their Stanley Cup contender windows it would be best to keep Skinner for the remainder of his contract, or buyout his contract in 2026 and only have a minimal cap hit for one season in their contending window. These two decisions would put the long-term benefit of the team over the short term pressure to make the playoffs.
This is the problem with the tear it down and build it back up rebuilds. Teams and fan bases grow impatient and then make moves counter to their long term objectives.
There is a third scenario that I have not discussed here that also makes a lot of sense. Trade Skinner while retaining 50% of his contract. This would put a $4.5M cap hit on the books for the next 3 seasons and then they would be free of Skinner’s cap hit beyond that. Skinner has scored 33, 35 and 24 goals the past 3 seasons so there may be some interest in him at $4.5M for a team in need of some additional scoring (New York Islanders??) or maybe a young rebuilding team looking to add some skill around their young players (Chicago? Utah? San Jose? Anaheim?).
The only challenge here is Jeff Skinner has a no move clause and may not want to move to the teams that want him. He could hope for a buyout and then choose the team he wants to go to and maybe even come out ahead salary wise. Skinner would lose $7,333,333 in salary if he gets bought out this summer. That means he only needs to make $2.5M/year for the next 3 years to come out ahead and I’m sure there are a number of contending teams that would be interested in adding a 25-35 goal scorer for $2.5M. That would be very attractive to Skinner who has yet to play a single NHL playoff game. So long as it seems likely that Buffalo will buy him out this summer there is zero incentive for him to accept a trade anywhere.
That leaves Sabres management with only the buyout option, and a decision of whether to sacrifice today for the future or the future for today.
I agree! It’s refreshing to read something like this that makes sense. Although Skinner’s contract was a mistake when Buffalo gave it to him, the Sabres are in an envious position where they can wait out that mistake. Buffalo just needs to stay on the path GM Adams set them on and remain patient. Like you said, the team won’t be a contender for a while still and the youth are developing still (Rochester is a very strong team).