Last spring after Carolina exited the playoffs against Florida I wrote an article about how Carolina’s weakness is the inside game. By the inside game I mean generating shots from the slot and preventing shots against from the slot. To summarize, Carolina isn’t great at either. They take a higher percentage of their shots from the outside and allow a higher percentage of shots against from the inside.
Has Carolina Addressed this Weaknesses
We know Carolina controls the puck possession game. They generate a lot of shots (second in shots per game at 32.2) and prevent a lot of shots again (league best 23.9 per game).
Having said that, a lot of their shots come from the outside. This rink map shots the percentage of shots on goal by the Carolina Hurricanes by offensive zone region relative to league average. Numbers above zero (pink) indicate a higher percentage of shots come from that region than league average and numbers below zero (blue) indicate a lower percentage of shots coming from that region. This factors out the number of shots the team takes, just looks at where the shots they are taking come from.
Carolina generates a much higher percentage of their shots from the left and right points and left wing boards. They do get a decent number of shots from the crease and low center slot but they don’t generate near the same number of shots from the left/right crease and mid-range shots. This are your prime scoring areas. This is an indicator that they aren’t generating enough traffic in front of the net.
Why does this matter? It matters because traffic in these mid-zones make the outside shots more difficult whether through screens or deflections. The result is Carolina regularly shots below their expected shooting percentage. By my data which can be found at Puckalytics.com or TheStanleyCap.com shows the Hurricanes were 28th in shooting percentage above expected this season, 27th in 2024-25, 30th in 2023-34, 29th in 2022-23, etc.
Here is a similar rink image for shots against Carolina. Here positive/pink indicates a higher percentage of shots against come from that zone relative to league average while negative/blue indicates a lower percentage of shots against come from that zone relative to league average.
Here you see almost the opposite of what you saw from Carolina’s offense. They allow a high percentage of shots from the inside and relatively few from the points. The end result is Carolina has generally been near the bottom of the league in save percentage and the long lasting narrative that goaltending has been the problem for Carolina. This season Carolina was 26th in 5v5 save percentage, last in expected save percentage but middle of the pack (15th) in save percentage above expected. Carolina doesn’t give up a lot of shots, but the ones they do are generally higher quality chances against.
The answer to the question about whether Carolina has addressed this weakness appears to be No.
Can Ottawa Take Capitalize on this Weakness
The pertinent question here is whether Ottawa’s strengths align with taking advantage of Carolina’s weaknesses. To answer that, let’s look at Ottawa’s strengths and whether they align with Carolina’s weaknesses.
First, let’s look at Ottawa’s defense.
Here we see that Ottawa defends the low inner slot quite well but otherwise not too much deviation from league average. Certainly there is no weakness on defending the inside for Ottawa so getting to the inside won’t be any easier for Carolina.
Now for Ottawa’s offense.
For Ottawa, they generate a higher percentage of their shots from the slot and mid-range and relatively few from the points or wings. This almost perfectly aligns with Carolina’s weaknesses. Ottawa should have a big advantage generating high quality inside shots in this playoff series. This, in my opinion, will be where this series will be won or lost. How much can Ottawa generate inside traffic and generate inside shots and scoring chances.
Just for fun, here is Ottawa’s percent of shots by region relative to league average over the past two seasons against Carolina.
Ottawa’s offense generated a high percentage of their shots from the inside putting a lot of pressure on Carolina goalies.
If we look at this in more absolute terms of shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5v5 play we still see that Ottawa generates an above average number of shots from the inside so Carolina’s ability to prevent shots against from the puck possession game is overpowered by Ottawa’s ability to generate inside shots and Carolina’s inability to defense against inside shots.
In Summary
To summarize, Carolina is a great puck possession team, but they are a poor team defending against inside and mid-range shots while Ottawa’s strength is generating offense from the inside. If Ottawa is to win this series, it will likely be due to Ottawa using their strength of generating inside shots, deflections, rebounds and goalie screens against Carolina’s weakness in defending against those same things. If Ottawa doesn’t attack Carolina’s weakness they will likely lose the series.