Further investigation into impact of zone starts

Tyler Dellow has a post at mc79hockey.com looking at zone starts and defensemen and if you read it the clear conclusion is that zone starts seem to matter quite a bit. In the third chart you can see that defensemen who get the most extreme defensive zone starts have an average corsi% of 44.7% while the average corsi% for defensemen with the most extreme offensive zone starts is 53.3%. This would seem to indicate that for defensemen zone starts can impact your corsi% anywhere from -5.3% to +3.3%. This is far more significant than I have estimated myself using a different methodology so

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Do zone starts really matter and if so, how much?

I often see people using zone starts and/or quality of competition as a way to justify any players unexpectedly poor or unexpectedly good play. Player X has a bad goal or corsi ratio because he plays all the tough minutes (i.e. the defensive zone starts and against the oppositions best lines). I am pretty certain that quality of competition is vastly over emphasized (everyone plays against everyone to some extent) and is vastly overshadowed by individual skill and quality of teammates, and I think zone starts do as well. Eric Tulsky at NHL Numbers.com posted a good review of the

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Using goalies to estimate zone start impact on corsi

Eric T. over at NHL Numbers had a post last week summarizing the current state of our statistical knowledge with respect to accounting for zone start differences.  If you haven’t read it definitely go read it because it is not only a good read but because it concludes that how the majority of people have been doing is is wrong. Overall, no two estimates are in direct agreement, but the analyses that are known to derive from looking directly at the outcomes immediately following a faceoff converge in the range of 0.25 to 0.4 Corsi shots per faceoff — one-third

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Adjusting for Zone Starts

One of the biggest omissions in my player rankings is making adjustments for zone start differences.  We know that Manny Malhotra has a significant bias towards starting his shifts in the defensive zone and that his teammates Daniel and Henrik Sedin have a significant bias towards starting their shifts in the offensive zone.  The result is Malhotra will unfairly be penalized for giving up more shots and goals against simply because he starts more often in the defensive zone and the Sedins have a huge advantage in generating shots and goals because of how often they start their shifts in the offensive

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