Feb 182013
 

I have some new and exciting enhancements to stats.hockeyanalysis.com for you all today. Charts, Charts, and more Charts.

Before we get to the charts though, let me also mention that I have made some modifications to my HARO, HARD and HART ratings. Most of the change is to the scale and presentation and not so much to the actual formula (though there were some tweaks there too). Instead of 1.00 being an average hockey player, 0 is and the scale has been multiplied by 100 to represent % as opposed to a ratio. So now one should interpret [Shot,Fenwick,Corsi]HARO offensive ratings to mean that when the player was on the ice his team had x% (where x is his rating) more goals [shots, fenwick, corsi] for than expected (as determined by his quality of team mates and quality of competition). This means that a positive value means more goals were scored than expected and a negative value means less goals were expected. A positive value indicates the player boosted his teams offensive performance while a negative value means he was a drag to his teams offense.

For defensive [Shot,Fenwick,Corsi]HARD ratings the effect is opposite. One should interpret the HARD ratings to mean that when the player is on the ice his team gave up x% (where his rating is x) fewer goals [shots, fenwick, corsi] than expected (as determined by quality of teammates and opposition).  So, a 10 HARO rating indicates the player boosted his teams expected goal scoring rate by 10% and a 10 HARD rating indicates the player reduced his teams expected goals against rate by 10%.  The [Shot,Fenwick,Corsi]HART ratings are simply the average of the HARO and HARD ratings.

Now on to the more exciting news, the charts. We all love charts so I have added a bunch for you all to enjoy. When you go to a player page now (i.e. Zdeno Chara) you will find a link named Visualize performance over time. Clicking this link will give you a visual representation of the players performance over the past several seasons starting in 2007-08 if their careers were active then. For example, here is Zdeno Chara’s performance charts. For forwards and defensemen there are 5 charts.

  1. Point production (G/60, A/60, First A/60 and Points/60)
  2. Individual shot, fenwick and corsi rates (shot/60, ifenwick/60, icorsi/60)
  3. HARO, HARD, FenHARO and FenHARD ratings
  4. GoalsFor%, ShotsFor%, FenwickFor% and CorsiFor%
  5. Zone Start %

This should give you a quick visualization of each players performance and how it has changed over time.

For goalies (i.e. Roberto Luongo) the only chart I have right now are 5v5 Zone Start Adjusted Save percentages.

Maybe the charts that will generate the most interest though are the new WOWY charts (sure to make you scream “WOWY!!!”). To access the WOWY charts you simply need to go to a WOWY data page and click on the “Visualize This Table” link at the top of the WOWY table (only for ‘with you’ WOWY, not ‘against you’). This will give you two WOWY bubble charts.  The first one plots teammate ‘with you’ GF% across the horizontal axis and teammate ‘without you’ GF% across the vertical access. The second chart is the same but plots CF% instead. The size of the bubbles are relative to the total TOI With.

In these plots good players will have the majority of their teammates bubbles show up below or to the right of the diagonal line from the bottom left corner to the top right corner and bad players will have the majority of their teammates above or to the left of that line. Players with a lot of teammates in the bottom right quadrant are really good because they are taking sub par players and making them look good. Players with a lot of teammates in the upper left quadrant are  bad because they make good players look bad.

For a look at two polar opposite players, take a look at Zdeno Chara’s WOWY charts compared to Jack Johnson’s WOWY charts (I have linked to the 3 year 5v5 ZS adjusted WOWY charts). Also, on Saturday I wrote a post about how bad Tyler Bozak is and if you want more evidence of that have a look at his 2 year WOWY charts. I am slowly becoming a big believer that WOWY’s are where it is at in evaluating players (though I guess I have always been a believer as this is the core of my HARO, HARD, and HART ratings). The great players are the ones who consistently make their team mates better. The good players are the ones who can really capitalize playing with great players and don’t hold them back. The bad players are those who act as drags on their team mates. These WOWY charts are a quick and easy way of visualizing the different types of players. For the Leafs, Grabovski fits into the ‘great’ category, Kessel into the ‘good’ category and Bozak into the bad.

I have a few more ideas of some charts and tables to add (I’d got some ideas for some more ‘usage’ type charts) but I think this will be the last major update for a while. That said, if you have any ideas of what you would like to see added definitely let me know and I’ll see what I can do. As for updating of the 2012-13 stats, it should be noted that they aren’t updated daily.  I have been trying (fairly successfully so far) to update them every Monday, Wednesday and Friday mornings and I hope to continue that but no guarantees.

Update: I know I said I wouldn’t do any more updates but I have made the WOWY charts better by adding WOWY charts for GF20, GA20, CF20 and CA20. Now we can easily see where a players strengths and weaknesses are (i.e. offense vs defense).