Corsi, Shooting Percentage and Coaching Changes

On the weekend I posted an article looking at the relationship between Corsi and Shooting percentage and suggested that good Corsi teams are often poor Shooting Percentage teams and that there is generally a negative correlation between Corsi and Shooting percentage. This relationship seems to hold for most teams except for the elite teams or the truly bad teams. Yesterday over at MapleLeafsHotStove.com I looked at this relationship just prior to, during, and just after the Randy Carlyle coaching era and it seemed to hold true (to some extent) for the Leafs during that time period. These kind of relationships

» Read more

Leafs, Kings and Devils – Rush goals and shooting percentage

Tyler Dellow has an interesting post on differences between the Kings and Leafs offensive production. He comes at the problem from a slightly different angle than I have explored in my rush shot series so definitely go give it a read. These two paragraphs discuss a theory of Dellow’s that is interesting. That’s the sort of thing that can affect a team’s shooting percentage. To take it to an extreme, teams shot 6.2% in the ten seconds after an OZ faceoff win this year; the league average shooting percentage at 5v5 is more like 8%. Of course, when you win

» Read more

Rush Shot Save Percentage

I have written a couple of posts (here and here) on rush shots as it relates to shooting percentages and I investigate this further at a later date. First though, I wanted to take a look at save percentages on rush and non-rush shots. Let’s start by looking at teach teams 5v5 road save percentages for the past 7 seasons combined. A few observations: Whoa Tampa! That’s a dreadful save percentage on the rush, 2.5% below anyone else. More on this later. The teams with the best save percentages on the rush are Anaheim, Phoenix, New Jersey, and Boston. r^2 between

» Read more

Maple Leaf defensemen and their effect on save percentage

The other day I looked at the effect that Mike Weaver and Bryce Salvador had on their teams save percentage (if you haven’t read it, definitely go give it a read) when they were on the ice versus when they weren’t on the ice. Today I am going to take a look at the Maple Leaf defensemen to see if there are any interesting trends to spot. We’ll start with the new acquisitions. Stephane Robidas (Blue line above orange is good in these charts, opposite is not good) Aside from 2008-09 he has had a negative impact on his team save percentage.

» Read more

Phil Kessel and his contract comparables

It appears that Phil Kessel’s is on the verge of signing an 8 year, $8M/yr contract with the Leafs so this is a good time to compare this contract to a couple other elite wingers who have signed contracts in the past year or so. Corey Perry and Zach Parise. I have also chosen to include Rick Nash in the discussion because he is a comparable goal scoring winger with a comparable salary even though he signed his contract several years ago. Before we get into contracts though, let’s take a look at production levels by age.   In terms

» Read more

Is success partly to blame for Dion Phaneuf’s and Mikhail Grabovski’s poor corsi last year?

I had first intended this to be a comment to Tyler Dellow’s investigation into Phaneuf and Grabovski shot totals for and against when they were on the ice together but once I started pulling numbers I decided it was important enough to have a post on its own and not get hidden in the comments somewhere. Go read Tyler’s post because it is a worthwhile read but he found that the when Grabovski/Phaneuf were on the ice together the Leafs were incredibly poor at getting shift with shots while good at having shifts where they gave up shots and it

» Read more

Evaluating top UFA Centers and why you don’t want Bozak

Unfortunately I didn’t have as much time this week as I had hoped to do a full evaluation of unrestricted free agent centers like I did for wingers but it is free agent day and there was some big news regarding centers yesterday with the buy out of Grabovski so I thought I’d throw a little something together where I look at some offensive statistics of some of the top centers available. Let me start off by presenting you with the summary table. G/60 A/60 Pts/60 IPP GF20-TMGF20 FF20-TMFF20 OZBias Ribeiro 0.593 1.512 2.11 80.5 0.113 -0.025 102.6 Filppula 0.769 1.334

» Read more

Dion Phaneuf protecting a lead vs playing catch up

After last weeks untimely pinch by Dion Phaneuf in game 4 that led to an overtime goal and the Bruins taking a 3-1 lead in the first round series there was a lot of evaluation of Phaneuf as a defenseman both good and bad. I was intending to write an article to discuss the relative merits of Dion Phaneuf and attempt to get an idea of where he stands among NHL defensemen but in the process of researching that I came across some interesting Phaneuf stats that I think deserve their own post so here it is. My observation was

» Read more

How do high shooting percentage teams perform in playoffs?

With the win over the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night the Leafs have made the playoffs for the first time since the 2003-04 season and they are doing it largely on the backs of an elevated shooting percentage which currently sits at a lofty 10.52% (5v5 only). Here are all the teams with a 5v5 shooting percentage above 9.00% since 2007-08 season and how they have done in the playoffs. Season Team 5v5 Sh% Playoff Result 2012-13 Maple Leafs 10.52 Made playoffs 2012-13 Stars 10.04 Fighting for playoff spot (10th) 2011-12 Lightning 9.73 Missed Playoffs 2009-10 Capitals 10.39 Lost in

» Read more

Who are drags on the Maple Leafs possession game

Even though I am a proponent of shot quality and the idea that the percentages matter (shooting and save percentage) puck control and possession are still an important part of the game and the Maple Leafs are dreadful at it. One of the better easily available metrics for measuring possession is fenwick percentage (FF%) which is a measure of the percentage shot attempts (shots + shots that missed the net) that your team took. So a FF% of 52% would mean your team took 52% of the shots while the opposing team took 48% of the shots. During 5v5 situations

» Read more
1 2 3 4