Oct 012013
 

It appears that Phil Kessel’s is on the verge of signing an 8 year, $8M/yr contract with the Leafs so this is a good time to compare this contract to a couple other elite wingers who have signed contracts in the past year or so. Corey Perry and Zach Parise. I have also chosen to include Rick Nash in the discussion because he is a comparable goal scoring winger with a comparable salary even though he signed his contract several years ago. Before we get into contracts though, let’s take a look at production levels by age.

KesselGoalsPerGameByAge

 

In terms of goal production, both Nash and Kessel got their careers started earlier than Perry or Parise and both had their best goal production years earlier int heir careers. Kessel of course had his best goal production year playing a significant amount of time with one of the best playmakers in the league at the time, Marc Savard. He has yet to match that level in Toronto but of course he is playing with Tyler Bozak in Toronto. Aside from Perry’s career year at age 25 he has generally been at or below the production level of the other three at the same age while Nash has generally been the more productive player. Note that I have removed Parise’s Age 25 season as he missed the majority of the year to injury. Nash’s age 20 season was lost due to a lockout. Ages are based on draft year (first season after draft year is age 18)

 

KesselPointsPerGameByAge

Not really a lot different in the points/game chart which kind of makes sense because all these players are wingers and more goal scorers than play makers. Parise once again had his peak season at age 23 while Perry again had his at age 25. Nash has maintained a little more consistency fluctuating between 0.8 and 1.0 since his age 21 season though one should remember that Nash’s age 21 season was 2005-06 when goal production was inflated due to obstruction crackdown and far more power plays. Kessel appears to still be on the upswing and he has shown more play making ability with Lupul or van Riemsdyk on the other wing and the absence of a play maker at center.

Age Length Total$
Parise* 27 8 $80M
Perry 27 8 $69M
Kessel 25 8 $64M
Nash 25 8 $62.4M

*Parise’s salary over the first 8 years of his contract.

Parise’s salary is a little wonky as he signed his contract under the old CBA which was a back diving contract in which he earns $94M over the first 10 years and $4M over the final 3. Perry is the easiest to compare with as he is the most recent contract signing while Nash signed several years ago when the salary cap was lower. All things considered Kessel’s contract is at least fairly priced if not a slight bargain.

In conclusion, even though the others may have had higher ‘peak’ seasons (though it is certainly possible, maybe likely, that Kessel hasn’t reached his peak) it is fair to suggest that Kessel is deserving to be considered similarly talented to the other three which makes his $8M/yr salary not only fair but maybe a slight bargain.

 

Sep 062013
 

I had first intended this to be a comment to Tyler Dellow’s investigation into Phaneuf and Grabovski shot totals for and against when they were on the ice together but once I started pulling numbers I decided it was important enough to have a post on its own and not get hidden in the comments somewhere. Go read Tyler’s post because it is a worthwhile read but he found that the when Grabovski/Phaneuf were on the ice together the Leafs were incredibly poor at getting shift with shots while good at having shifts where they gave up shots and it had very little to do with not getting multiple shots per shift or giving up multiple shots per shift at a higher rate.

This is helpful to know because it narrows the issue: the Leafs’ Corsi% last year with Grabovski/Phaneuf on the ice didn’t collapse because of a change in the rate at which multi-SAF and multi-SAA shifts occurred; it collapsed because the Leafs suddenly became extraordinarily poor at generating the first SAF and preventing the first SAA. If you’re blaming Korbinian Holzer or Mike Kostka or Jay McClement for this, you need to come up with a convincing explanation as to why their impact was felt in terms of the likelihood of the first shot attempt occurring, but not really on subsequent ones.

A lot of people blame Holzer or Kostka or McClement but I will present another (at least partial) explanation. Phaneuf and Grabovski’s numbers tanked because the Leafs were winning. Let me explain.

Here is a table of Phaneuf’s CF% over the last 4 seasons during various 5v5 situations: Tied, Leading, Trailing, Total. Note that part of 2009-10 season was with Calgary.

Tied Leading Trailing 5v5
2009-10 53.4% 44.3% 58.2% 52.3%
2010-11 46.5% 38.6% 54.7% 47.1%
2011-12 47.7% 44.3% 56.4% 49.9%
2012-13 39.6% 35.7% 55.4% 41.9%

In Tied and Overall situations Phaneuf’s numbers tanked quite significantly, particularly last season, but where it gets really interesting is in the Leading and Trailing stats. When Leading his stats dropped off a bit to 35.7% last year but he was at 38.6% in 2010-11 and was only 44.3% the other years so pretty bad all round. What’s interesting is his trailing stats have maintained significantly higher levels right through from 2009-10 through 2012-13 with relatively very little fluctuation (compared to leading and tied stats).

Now, let’s look at the percentage of ice time Phaneuf played in each situation.

Tied Leading Trailing
2009-10 41.2% 28.3% 30.5%
2010-11 31.9% 27.7% 40.4%
2011-12 33.5% 29.8% 36.6%
2012-13 32.9% 42.3% 24.8%

He played much more in tied situations in 2009-10 but maintained about the same the following 3 years. Where the big difference lies is in the percentage of ice time he played while leading and trailing. He played far more while leading last year and far less while trailing. When you combine this with the previous table, it isn’t a surprise that his corsi numbers tanked. If we took last years CF% and applied them to his ice time percentages of 2011-12 he’d have ended up with a CF% of 44.2% which is a fair bit higher than his actual 2012-13 CF% of 41.9%. This means about 29% (or 2.3 CF% points) of his drop off in CF% from 2011-12 to 2012-13 can be attributed to ice time changes alone. That’s not an insignificant amount.

As for the rest, I believe Randy Carlyle’s more defensive style of hockey compared to Ron Wilson’s is a significant factor. When leading teams play a more defensive game and we see above (and you’ll see with other players if you looked) when leading your CF% tanks compared to when trailing and playing offensive hockey. How much is Phaneuf’s drop off in CF% in 5v5 tied situations last year is due to Phaneuf being asked to play a far more defensive role?  Probably a significant portion of it.

When we take everything into consideration, the majority of Phaneuf’s drop off in CF% last year can probably be attributed to Leading vs Trailing ice time differences and being asked to play a far more significant defensive role in tied situations and probably only a very small portion of it can be attributed to playing with Holzer and Kostska or any change in quality of competition or zone starts (which I still claim have very little direct impact on stats, though they can be a proxy for their style of play, defensive vs offensive).

Now, let’s take a quick look at Grabovski’s stats.

Tied Leading Trailing 5v5
2009-10 58.0% 55.8% 56.1% 56.8%
2010-11 52.2% 49.8% 58.0% 53.6%
2011-12 52.8% 46.9% 59.2% 53.7%
2012-13 44.0% 38.2% 55.7% 44.3%

Much the same as Phaneuf. His 5v5 tied stats dropped off significantly but his trailing stats maintained at a fairly good level. His Leading stats have dropped off steadily since 2009-10, probably as he has been given more defensive responsibility.

Tied Leading Trailing
2009-10 38.6% 20.3% 41.0%
2010-11 33.3% 28.9% 37.8%
2011-12 33.5% 26.8% 39.7%
2012-13 32.2% 42.7% 25.1%

Nothing too different from Phaneuf. If anything more extreme changes in Leading vs Trailing. For Grabovski, 29.8% of his drop off in CF% last year can be attributed changes in Leading/Trailing ice time while I suspect a significant portion of the rest can be attributed in large part to Randy Carlyle’s more defensive game, and asking Grabovski to play a more defensive role in particular.

Now, how do the Leafs as a team look?

Tied Leading Trailing 5v5
2009-10 52.1% 48.0% 56.1% 52.8%
2010-11 46.1% 41.6% 54.0% 47.8%
2011-12 47.9% 42.1% 55.6% 48.9%
2012-13 43.8% 39.5% 52.2% 44.1%

The Leafs drop off in CF% is pretty even across the board. They lost 4.1% when tied, 2.6% when leading and 3.4% when trailing.  Interestingly that led to a 4.8% drop overall which kind of makes little sense until you look at their leading/trailing ice times.

Tied Leading Trailing
2009-10 37.2% 22.0% 40.9%
2010-11 33.6% 28.9% 37.5%
2011-12 33.7% 29.8% 36.5%
2012-13 33.1% 42.0% 25.0%

Tied ice time remained about the same last year as 2011-12 but leading ice time jumped from 29.8% to 42.0% while trailing ice time dropped from 36.5% to 25.0%. So, when we look at the Leafs as a whole and applied this years leading/trailing/tied CF% stats to last years  ice time percentages they would have only dropped from 48.9% to 45.6%. The remainder of the fall to 41.1% is due to changes in leading/trailing/tied ice times, or 30.8% of the drop off.

So, to summarize about 30% of the drop off in the Leafs team and individual CF% from 2011-12 season to last season can be directly attributed to changes int he Leafs leading/trailing/tied ice time percentages. This means 30% of the drop off can be attributed to the Leafs being a far better team last year at getting leads and winning games.  Or, if you believe that was largely due to lucky shooting you can say 30% of the Leafs drop off in CF% is due to good luck.

Although I haven’t explicitly proven it, I’ll contend that a significant portion of the remainder comes down to Randy Carlye being a far more defensive coach than Ron Wilson was. Maybe another day I’ll test this theory by looking at someone like Phil Kessel and see how his stats changed because Phil Kessel was not given a heavy defensive role last year like Phaneuf and Grabovski were and thus may not have seen the same drop off, particularly in tied situations (quick check: Kessel was 47.3 CF% in 5v5 tied situations in 2011-12 and 42.3% last year so he saw a significant drop off too but not as much as Phaneuf or Grabovski). It may also be interesting to look at how ice time changes impact shooting and save percentages and whether this partly explains the Leafs high shooting percentage last year and maybe what impact it had on their relatively decent save percentages too compared to previous years.

As you can see though, ice time changes can have a significant impact on a players statistics and it is important to take that into consideration in player evaluation like when I looked at Phaneuf’s leading/trailing stats a while back.

(All the stats in this post came from stats.hockeyanalysis.com so feel free to go there, pull the data and analyze whichever team or player you want in leading/trailing/tied situations)

Jul 052013
 

Unfortunately I didn’t have as much time this week as I had hoped to do a full evaluation of unrestricted free agent centers like I did for wingers but it is free agent day and there was some big news regarding centers yesterday with the buy out of Grabovski so I thought I’d throw a little something together where I look at some offensive statistics of some of the top centers available. Let me start off by presenting you with the summary table.

G/60 A/60 Pts/60 IPP GF20-TMGF20 FF20-TMFF20 OZBias
Ribeiro 0.593 1.512 2.11 80.5 0.113 -0.025 102.6
Filppula 0.769 1.334 2.1 75 0.116 -0.878 104.7
Lecavalier 0.799 1.186 1.99 68.1 0.139 0.381 100.7
Grabovski 0.899 0.961 1.86 65.4 0.196 2.406 96
Roy 0.587 1.146 1.73 67.4 0.039 0.747 98.7
Weiss 0.652 0.821 1.47 65.6 0.07 -0.467 103.3
Bozak 0.566 0.775 1.34 54.2 -0.062 0.292 99.8


The numbers above are 5v5 numbers over the past 3 seasons and the players are sorted by Pts/60. I threw in Lecavalier because he was a UFA for a brief period of time and is at more or less the same level as the others. I included Bozak to highlight just how much he doesn’t fit in with the rest of the group.

  • G/60 = Goals per 60 minutes of ice time.
  • A/60 = Assists per 60 minutes of ice time
  • Pts/60 = Points per 60 minutes of ice time.
  • IPP = Individual Points Percentage, or the percentage of goals scored while on ice that the player had a point on.
  • GF20-TMGF20 = How much better are his team mates on-ice goal stats when playing with him than without.
  • FF20-TMFF20 = How much better are his team mates on-ice shot generation when playing with him than without.
  • OZBias = OZ Starts*2 + NZStarts and gives an indication of the players usage.

List sorted by G/60: Grabovski, Lecavalier, Filppula, Weiss, Ribeiro, Roy, Bozak

List sorted by A/60: Ribeiro, Filppula, Lecavalier, Roy, Grabovski, Weiss, Bozak

List sorted by Pts/60: Ribeiro, Filppula, Lecavalier, Grabovski, Roy, Weiss, Bozak

List sorted by IPP: Ribeiro, Filppula, Lecavalier, Roy, Weiss, Grabovski, Bozak

List sorted by GF20-TMGF20:  Grabovski, Lecavalier, Filppula, Ribeiro, Weiss, Roy, Bozak

List sorted by FF20-TMFF20: Grabovski, Roy, Lecavalier, Bozak, Ribeiro, Weiss, Filppula

Some comments on each player:

Mike Ribeiro: Easily the best play maker of the group and is most consistently involved in the play.

Valterri Filppula: Better goal scorer than Ribeiro but not as good as a play maker as Ribeiro but better than the rest.

Vincent Lecavalier: Similar to Filppula in value but better at the possession game.

Mikhail Grabovski: Not a great play maker but a good finisher and good at driving shot generation indicating he is probably good at puck retrieval.

Derek Roy: Kind of a poor mans Ribeiro but much less valuable.

Stephen Weiss: More of a poor mans Lecavalier. Easily had the worst line mates of the group and might do better in a different situation.

Tyler Bozak: Weak at goal scoring, bad at play making, not involved in the play and a drag on his team mates goal production. Not anywhere close to the same league as the others (and maybe be better suited for a different league too).

For me, Ribeiro is probably the best of the group in terms of pure offense because of his elite play making ability. Grabovski and Lecavalier are a little more balanced with better scoring and puck retrieval skills while Filppula is pretty solid all round as well and has the flexibility of being used as either a center or a winger (which is valuable if locking in long-term). It’s difficult to compare Weiss to the rest because he simply hasn’t had near as good of line mates but it is probably safe to say he’d be a bit of a step down from Grabovski, Lecavalier or Filppula. Roy, on the other hand, would definitely be a step back but still a decent consolation prize if on a lower priced contract with shorter term. Definitely not anything more than a #2 center though.

As for Bozak, well, you simply don’t want him on your team. Maybe not at any price no matter what the bargain basement price is. I have tried and tried but I just can’t find any redeeming qualities for him outside of his ability to win face offs which has limited value. There simply is no reason why you would want to play him on any of your top 3 lines. None.

Being a Leaf fan and unable to keep Grabovski, my preference would be Ribeiro or Filppula but might be willing to take a chance on Weiss if the contract was right. Ribeiro’s play making skills with the Leafs wingers should be a good combination and Filppula is a good all round player who could shift to wing down if needed. Weiss seems like a solid 2-way player who might be able to step up his game with better line mates which he’d get with the Leafs. If they sign Bozak, I am not sure what I’ll do. It’ll be a sad day.

 

May 152013
 

After last weeks untimely pinch by Dion Phaneuf in game 4 that led to an overtime goal and the Bruins taking a 3-1 lead in the first round series there was a lot of evaluation of Phaneuf as a defenseman both good and bad. I was intending to write an article to discuss the relative merits of Dion Phaneuf and attempt to get an idea of where he stands among NHL defensemen but in the process of researching that I came across some interesting Phaneuf stats that I think deserve their own post so here it is.

My observation was with respect to Phaneuf’s usage and performance when the Leafs are leading and when they are trailing over the previous 3 seasons. Let’s start of by looking at Phaneuf’s situational statistics over the past 3 seasons.

5v5 5v5close 5v5tied Leading Trailing
G/60 0.222 0.175 0.101 0.156 0.408
Pts/60 0.700 0.670 0.660 0.420 1.020
IPP 30.1% 31.1% 34.2% 20.0% 34.5%
GF20 0.773 0.721 0.640 0.692 0.986
GA20 0.841 0.760 0.943 0.865 0.714
GF% 47.9% 48.7% 40.4% 44.4% 58.0%
CF20 18.316 18.113 18.159 15.195 21.542
CA20 20.686 21.418 21.880 22.982 17.223
CF% 47.0% 45.8% 45.4% 39.8% 55.6%
OZ% 28.0% 26.7% 25.2% 24.2% 34.5%
DZ% 31.8% 30.3% 29.7% 37.5% 28.5%
NZ% 40.3% 43.0% 45.0% 38.3% 37.0%
DZBias 103.9 103.6 104.4 113.3 94.0
TeamDZBias 108.9 109 107 115.2 100.8
DZBiasDiff -5 -5.4 -2.6 -1.9 -6.8

Most of the stats above the regular readers should be familiar with but if you are not you can reference my glossary here. The one stat that I have not used before is DZBias. DZBias is defined as 2*DZ% + NZ% and thus anything over 100 indicates the player has a bias towards starting shifts in the defensive zone and anything under 100 the player has a bias towards starting in the offensive zone. I prefer this to OZone% which is OZStarts/(OZStarts+DZStarts) because it takes into account neutral zone starts as well. TeamDZBias is the zone start bias of the Leafs over the past 3 seasons and DZBiasDiff is Phaneuf’s DZBias minus the teams DZBias and provides a zone start bias relative to the team. Anything less than 0 indicates usage is more in the offensive zone relative to his teammates.

So, what does this tell us about Phaneuf.  Well, there isn’t a huge variation in either the zone start usage or the results during 5v5, 5v5close and 5v5tied situations so the focus should be on the differences between 5v5leading and 5v5trailing which are significant.

Typical score effects are when leading a team gives up more shots but of lower quality (defensive shells protect the danger zone in front of the net but allow more shots from the perimeter) and takes fewer shots but of higher quality (probably a result of more odd-man rushes due to pinching defensemen of the trailing team).  Phaneuf seems to take this concept to the extreme but more importantly Phaneuf seems to excel best in an offensive role and struggles in a defensive role. When the Leafs are trailing Phaneuf has  0.408G/60 (10th of 180 defensemen) and 1.02 points/60 (36th of 180 defensemen) but when leading Phaneuf falls to 0.156 G/50 (64th of 177 defensemen) and 0.42 points/60 (137th of 177 defensemen). Furthermore, Phaneuf’s involvement in the offensive zone drops off significantly when leading (IPP drops from 34.5% when trailing to 20.0% when leading).

In terms of on-ice stats, Phaneuf’s CF% drops from 55.6% when trailing (79th of 180 defensemen) to a very poor 39.8% when leading (164th of 177 defensemen).  Some may be thinking this is due to zone starts but Phaneuf is getting above average offensive zone starts both when trailing (ranks 100th of 180 defensemen) and when leading (ranks 154th of 177) and using even the most aggressive zone start adjustments in no way will account for the difference. Similar observations can be made with on-ice goal stats as well. Let’s look at how Phaneuf ranks among defensemen over the past 3 seasons.

Leading (of177) Trailing ( of 180)
GF20 109 25
GA20 125 71
GF% 126 36
CF20 128 31
CA20 174 154
CF% 164 79

That is a pretty significant improvement in rankings when trailing over when leading, especially in the offensive statistics (GF20, CF20). If zone starts aren’t a factor, might line mates be? He are Phaneuf’s most frequent defense partners:

Trailing:  Gunnarsson (364:33, 31.0%), Beauchemin(212:07, 18,0%), Aulie(162:09, 13.8%)

Leading: Gunnarsson (376:16, 32.5%), Aulie(234:17, 20.3%), Beauchemin(166:30, 14.4%)

Playing more with Beauchemin and less with Aulie when trailing ought to help, particularly ones offensive stats, but I doubt that is going to account for that much of a difference. Also, when leading Phaneuf has a 41.2CF% with Gunnarsson and when trailing that spikes to 54.6%. When leading Phaneuf and Beauchemin have a CF% of 37.3% and when trailing that spikes to 57.7%. With Aulie the difference is 36.6% vs 49.3%. Regardless of which defense partner Phaneuf is with, their stats dramatically improve when playing in catch up situation than when in trailing situations.

The same is true for forwards. When protecting a lead Phaneuf plays more with Grabovski and Kulemin but when playing catch up he plays a bit more with Kessel and Bozak but for all of those forwards Phaneuf’s numbers with them are hugely better when playing catch up than when protecting a lead and playing with Grabovski and Kulemin more when playing with a lead should only help his statistics as they are generally considered the Leafs better corsi players.

Let’s take a look at a chart of Phaneuf’s corsi WOWY’s when leading and when trailing.

Leading:

PhaneufLeadingCorsiWOWY201013

As you can see, when leading the majority of Phaneuf’s team mates are to the left of the diagonal line which means they have a better corsi% without Phaneuf than with.

Trailing:

PhaneufTrailingCorsiWOWY201013

When trailing the majority of Phaneuf’s team mates are near or to the right of the diagonal line which means they generally have better corsi% statistics when with Phaneuf than when apart.

So the question arises, why is this? It doesn’t seem to be zone starts. It doesn’t seem to be changes in line mates and it isn’t that the team as a whole automatically becomes a great corsi% team when trailing which Phaneuf could benefit from. When leading Phaneuf’s corsi% is 39.8% which is worse than the teams 41.2% and when trailing Phaneuf’s corsi% is 55.6% which is better than the teams 54.4%. It seems to me that the conclusion we must draw from this is that Phaneuf has been poor at protecting a lead relative to his team mates and we know his team mates have been poor at protecting a lead. Where Phaneuf excels is when he is asked to engage offensively be that when playing catch up hockey or when playing on the PP (Phaneuf’s PP statistics are pretty solid). From the first chart we know that Phaneuf has a slight bias towards more offensive zone starts (relative to his team mates) and when we dig into the numbers further it probably shows that he should be given even more offensive opportunities and given fewer defensive ones because he seems like a much better player when asked to be engaged offensively than when he is asked to be a shut down defenseman.

Acquiring a quality shut down defenseman (ideally two) this off season must be the #1 priority of Maple Leaf management and Phaneuf’s usage must shift further away from multi-purpose heavy work load defenseman to primarily an offensive usage defenseman.

 

Apr 232013
 

With the win over the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night the Leafs have made the playoffs for the first time since the 2003-04 season and they are doing it largely on the backs of an elevated shooting percentage which currently sits at a lofty 10.52% (5v5 only). Here are all the teams with a 5v5 shooting percentage above 9.00% since 2007-08 season and how they have done in the playoffs.

Season Team 5v5 Sh% Playoff Result
2012-13 Maple Leafs 10.52 Made playoffs
2012-13 Stars 10.04 Fighting for playoff spot (10th)
2011-12 Lightning 9.73 Missed Playoffs
2009-10 Capitals 10.39 Lost in first round
2009-10 Canucks 9.14 Lost in second round
2008-09 Penguins 9.76 Won Stanley Cup
2008-09 Canucks 9.23 Lost in second round
2008-09 Bruins 9.15 Lost in second round
2008-09 Thrashers 9.02 Missed Playoffs
2007-08 Senators 9.03 Lost in first round

Prior to this season there have been 8 teams with a shooting percentage above 9.00%, 2 missed the playoffs, 2 lost in the first round, 3 lost in the second round and one team won the Stanley Cup. That isn’t very much success at all which is not a good sign for Leaf fans (myself included) hoping their team can go on a playoff run.

 

Apr 172013
 

Even though I am a proponent of shot quality and the idea that the percentages matter (shooting and save percentage) puck control and possession are still an important part of the game and the Maple Leafs are dreadful at it. One of the better easily available metrics for measuring possession is fenwick percentage (FF%) which is a measure of the percentage shot attempts (shots + shots that missed the net) that your team took. So a FF% of 52% would mean your team took 52% of the shots while the opposing team took 48% of the shots. During 5v5 situations this season the Maple Leafs have a FF% of 44.4% which is dead last in the NHL. So, who are the biggest culprits in dragging down the Maple Leafs possession game? Let’s take a look.

Forwards

Player Name FF% TMFF% OppFF% FF% – TMFF% FF%-TMFF%+OppFF%-0.5
MACARTHUR, CLARKE 0.485 0.44 0.507 0.045 0.052
KESSEL, PHIL 0.448 0.404 0.507 0.044 0.051
KOMAROV, LEO 0.475 0.439 0.508 0.036 0.044
KADRI, NAZEM 0.478 0.444 0.507 0.034 0.041
GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 0.45 0.424 0.508 0.026 0.034
VAN_RIEMSDYK, JAMES 0.456 0.433 0.508 0.023 0.031
FRATTIN, MATT 0.475 0.448 0.504 0.027 0.031
LUPUL, JOFFREY 0.465 0.445 0.502 0.02 0.022
BOZAK, TYLER 0.437 0.453 0.508 -0.016 -0.008
KULEMIN, NIKOLAI 0.421 0.454 0.51 -0.033 -0.023
ORR, COLTON 0.401 0.454 0.5 -0.053 -0.053
MCLAREN, FRAZER 0.388 0.443 0.501 -0.055 -0.054
MCCLEMENT, JAY 0.368 0.459 0.506 -0.091 -0.085

FF% is the players FF% when he is on the ice expressed in decimal form. TMFF% is an average of the players team mates FF% when they are not playing with the player in question (i.e. what his team mates do when they are separated from them, or a quality of teammate metric). OppFF% is an average of the players opponents FF% (i.e. a quality of competition metric). From those base stats I took FF% – TMFF% which will tell us which players perform better than their teammates do when they aren’t playing with him (the higher the better). Finally I factored in OppFF% by adding in how much above 50% their opposition is on average. This will get us an all encompassing stat to indicate who are the drags on the Leafs possession game.

Jay McClement is the Leafs greatest drag on possession. A few weeks ago I posted an article visually showing how much of a drag on possession McClement has been this year and in previous years. McClement’s 5v5 FF% over the past 6 seasons are 46.2%, 46.8%, 45.3%, 47.5%, 46,2% and 36.8% this season.

Next up are the goons, Orr and McLaren which is probably no surprise. They are more interested in looking for the next hit/fight than they are the puck. In general they are low minute players so their negative impact is somewhat mitigated but they are definite drags on possession.

Kulemin is the next biggest drag on possession which might come as a bit of a surprise considering that he has generally been fairly decent in the past. Looking at the second WOWY chart here you can see that nearly every player has a worse CF% (same as FF% but includes shots that have been blocked) with Kulemin than without except for McClement and to a much smaller extent Liles. This is dramatically different than previous seasons  (see second chart again) when the majority of players did equally well or better with Kulemin save for Grabovski. Is Kulemin having an off year? It may seem so.

Next up is my favourite whipping boy Tyler Bozak. Bozak is and has always been a drag on possession. Bozak ranks 293 of 312 forwards in FF% this season (McClement is dead last!) and in the previous 2 seasons he ranked 296th of 323 players.

Among forwards, McClement, McLaren, Orr, Kulemin and Bozak appear to be the biggest drags on the Maple Leafs possession game this season.

Defense

Player Name FF% TMFF% OppFF% FF% – TMFF% FF%-TMFF%+OppFF%-0.5
FRANSON, CODY 0.469 0.437 0.506 0.032 0.038
GARDINER, JAKE 0.463 0.44 0.506 0.023 0.029
KOSTKA, MICHAEL 0.459 0.435 0.504 0.024 0.028
GUNNARSSON, CARL 0.455 0.437 0.506 0.018 0.024
FRASER, MARK 0.461 0.445 0.506 0.016 0.022
LILES, JOHN-MICHAEL 0.445 0.443 0.503 0.002 0.005
PHANEUF, DION 0.422 0.455 0.509 -0.033 -0.024
HOLZER, KORBINIAN 0.399 0.452 0.504 -0.053 -0.049
O_BYRNE, RYAN 0.432 0.505 0.499 -0.073 -0.074

O’Byrne is a recent addition to the Leafs defense so you can’t blame the Leafs possession woes on him, but in Colorado he was a dreadful possession player so he won’t be the answer to the Leafs possession woes either.

Korbinian Holzer was dreadful in a Leaf uniform this year and we all know that so no surprise there but next up is Dion Phaneuf, the Leafs top paid and presumably best defenseman. In FF%-TMFF%+OppFF%-0.5 Phaneuf ranked a little better the previous 2 seasons (0.023 and 0.003) so it is possible that he is having an off year or had his stats dragged down a bit by Holzer but regardless, he isn’t having a great season possession wise.

 

 

Apr 162013
 

If you follow me on twitter you know I am not a fan of Tyler Bozak and I have written about him in the past. As a Leaf fan I want to keep writing about his poor play because I really do not want to see him re-signed in Toronto. He isn’t a good player and simple does not deserve it, especially if he is going to be making upwards of $4M/yr on a 4+ year long contract.  Let’s take a look at how he ranks in a variety of categories over the previous 3 seasons combined as well as this season.

Statistic 3yr 2012-13
5v5 G/60 219/324 130/310
5v5 A/60 168/324 144/310
5v5 Pts/60 199/324 139/310
5v5 IGP 265/324 195/310
5v5 IAP 202/324 221/310
5v5 IPP 288/324 268/310
5v5 FF20 155/324 173/310
5v5 FA20 319/324 309/310
5v5 FF% 275/324 291/310
5v4 G/60 116/155 57/147
5v4 A/60 144/155 98/147
5v4 Pts/60 150/155 89/147
5v4 IGP 76/155 66/147
5v4 IAP 131/155 110/147
5v4 IPP 139/155 114/147

The above are his rankings among other forwards (i.e. 219/324 means 219th among 324 forwards with >1500 5v5 3yr minutes, >300 5v5 2012-13 minutes, >400 5v4 3yr minutes and >75 5v4 2012-13 minutes.  2012-13 stats for games up to but not including last nights).  For 5v5 ice time we are essentially talking the top 10-11 forwards on each team, or their regulars and on the power play we are talking the top 5 forwards in PP ice time per team.

In 3-year 5v5 goals, assists and points per 60 minutes of play Tyler Bozak is ranking approximately the equivalent of a good 3rd line player. The thing is, he is doing that while playing on the first line but his terrible IGP, IAP, and IPP numbers indicate he is doing a terrible job keeping pace with his fellow first line mates.  If you look at his 3 year fenwick numbers (FF20, FA20 and FF%) which are on-ice stats you see when Tyler Bozak has been on the ice the Leafs have been mediocre at shot generation and terrible at shot prevention. Only a handful (literally, just 5 players) have a worse shot prevention record when they are on the ice.

On the power play things aren’t much better. He is second powerplay unit material at best but he is near the bottom of the pack in every assist and point generation and only a bit better in goal production.

Overall his numbers look a little better in 2012-13 but they certainly aren’t much to write home about, especially his IGP, IAP and IPP. He still looks to be a 3rd line offensive player with terrible defensive ability.

Another thing we can look at is his WOWY numbers with his most frequent line mate Phil Kessel.

Bozak w/Kessel Bozak wo/ Kessel
3yr GF20 0.874 0.648
3yr GA20 0.995 1.297
3yr GF% 46.8% 33.3%
3yr CF20 19.60 17.43
3yr CA20 20.89 20.82
3yr CF% 48.4% 45.6%
2012-13 GF20 0.956 0.000
2012-13 GA20 0.918 0.419
2012-13 GF% 51.0% 0.0%
2012-13 CF20 19.50 8.38
2012-13 CA20 21.53 25.55
2012-13 CF% 47.5% 24.7%

When Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak are on the ice together they are not even breaking even. When Tyler Bozak is on the ice without Kessel they are significantly worse. Individually, Tyler Bozak has scored just 3 of his 26 5v5 goals (11.5%) and 8 of his 68 points (11.8%) over the previous 3 seasons when separated from Kessel despite playing nearly 20% of his ice time apart from Kessel. When not with Kessel his goal and point production drops significantly and as we know from above it wasn’t all that impressive to start with.

Not shown are Phil Kessel’s numbers when he isn’t playing with Tyler Bozak but they are generally better than when they are together. Phil Kessel when not playing with Tyler Bozak has a GF% of 50.4% and a CF% of 51.5% over the previous 3 seasons. Tyler Bozak appears to be a drag on Kessel’s offense.

The only argument you can for keeping Bozak is that the Kessel-Bozak-Lupul/JVR line has been productive and is working so why break them up. To me that argument only works when Bozak is making $1.5M and is not a significant drag on the salary cap but you can’t be paying a player $3.5-4M to essentially be a place holder between Kessel and Lupul/JVR.

Related News Article: James Mirtle wrote an article on the tough decision Leaf management has regarding the re-signing of Tyler Bozak.

(I am going to try and include a glossary in my posts for advanced statistics mentioned in the post so those not familiar with advanced stats can find out what they mean but a full glossary can also be found here).

Glossary

  • G/60 – Goals scored per 60 minutes of play
  • A/60 – Assists per 60 minutes of play
  • Pts/60 – Points per 60 minutes of play
  • IGP – Percentage of teams goals while player was on ice that were scored by the player
  • IAP – Percentage of teams goals while player was on the ice that the player had an assist on
  • IPP – Percentage of teams goals while player was on the ice that player scored or had an assist on
  • FF20 – Fenwick (shots + missed shots) by team per 20 minutes of ice time
  • FA20 – Fenwick (shots + missed shots) against team per 20 minutes of ice time
  • FF% – % of all shot attempts (shots + missed shots) while on ice that the players team took – FF/(FF+FA)
  • GF20, GA20, GF% – same as FF20, FA20, FF% except for goals
  • CF20, CA20, CF% – same as FF20, FA20, FF% but also includes shot attempts that were blocked (corsi)

 

Apr 122013
 

The Toronto Maple Leafs shooting percentage has been predicted to fall for a couple of months now but it has held steady. I know that about 5-6 weeks ago the Leafs 5v5 shooting percentage was at 10.4% and I predicted it was sure to fall but as of this morning their 5v5 shooting percentage is even higher at 10.59%. Here is a graph of their 5v5 shooting percentage through out the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs 2012-13 Shooting %

Toronto Maple Leafs 2012-13 Shooting % (shots across x-axis)

League average 5v5 shooting percentage is normally just shy of 8% and the Leafs are about 33% higher than that which is incredibly high. Over the previous 5 seasons only one team has maintained a 5v5 shooting percentage above 10% over the course of an 82 game season and that was the Washington Capitals in 2009-10 when they shot at a 10.39% clip and only a handful of teams have managed to post a 5v5 shooting percentage above 9%. What the Leafs are doing is quite extraordinary even if it is a shortened season. Only 13.4% of the running 50 shot shooting percentage data points in the above graph fall below the typical league average of 8% so about 86.6% of the time they are at or above average in shooting percentage.

The only other team with a 5v5 shooting percentage above 10% this season is the Tampa Bay Lighting but they have been falling back a bit lately and in danger of falling below the 10% line as they currently sit at 10.01%.

Barring a collapse the Leafs should almost certainly end the season with a shooting percentage above 10% but it is difficult to know how much of it is luck/circumstance/randomness and how much is truly skill.

 

Apr 052013
 

Yesterday HabsEyesOnThePrize.com had a post on the importance of fenwick come playoff time over the past 5 seasons. It is definitely worth a look so go check it out. In the post they look at FF% in 5v5close situations and see how well it translates into post season success. I wanted to take this a step further and take a look at PDO and GF% in 5v5close situations to see of they translate into post season success as well.  Here is what I found:

Group N Avg Playoff Avg Cup Winners Lost Cup Finals Lost Third Round Lost Second Round Lost First Round Missed Playoffs
GF% > 55 19 2.68 2.83 5 1 2 6 4 1
GF% 50-55 59 1.22 1.64 0 2 6 10 26 15
GF% 45-50 52 0.62 1.78 0 2 2 4 10 34
GF% <45 20 0.00 - 0 0 0 0 0 20
FF% > 53 23 2.35 2.35 3 2 4 5 9 0
FF% 50-53 55 1.15 1.70 2 2 1 10 22 18
FF% 47-50 46 0.52 1.85 0 0 4 3 6 33
FF% <47 26 0.54 2.00 0 1 1 2 3 19
PDO >1010 27 1.63 2.20 2 2 2 6 8 7
PDO 1000-1010 42 1.17 1.75 1 0 5 7 15 14
PDO 990-1000 47 0.91 1.95 2 1 3 4 12 25
PDO <990 34 0.56 1.90 0 2 0 3 5 24

I have grouped GF%, FF% and PDO into four categories each, the very good, the good, the mediocre and the bad and I have looked at how many teams made it to each round of the playoffs from each group. If we say that winning the cup is worth 5 points, getting to the finals is worth 4, getting to the 3rd round is worth 3, getting to the second round is worth 2, and making the playoffs is worth 1, then the Avg column is the average point total for the teams in that grouping.  The Playoff Avg is the average point total for teams that made the playoffs.

As HabsEyesOnThePrize.com found, 5v5close FF% is definitely an important factor in making the playoffs and enjoying success in the playoffs. That said, GF% seems to be slightly more significant. All 5 Stanley Cup winners came from the GF%>55 group while only 3 cup winners came from the FF%>53 group and both Avg and PlayoffAvg are higher in the GF%>55 group than the FF%>53 group. PDO only seems marginally important, though teams that have a very good PDO do have a slightly better chance to go deeper into the playoffs. Generally speaking though, if you are trying to predict a Stanley Cup winner, looking at 5v5close GF% is probably a better metric than looking at 5v5close FF% and certainly better than PDO. Now, considering this is a significantly shorter season than usual, this may not be the case as luck may be a bit more of a factor in GF% than usual but historically this has been the case.

So, who should we look at for playoff success this season?  Well, there are currently 9 teams with a 5v5close GF% > 55.  Those are Anaheim, Boston, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Montreal, Chicago, San Jose, Toronto and Vancouver. No other teams are above 52.3% so that is a list unlikely to get any new additions to it before seasons end though some could certainly fall out of the above 55% list. Now if we also only consider teams that have a 5v5close FF% >50% then Toronto and Anaheim drop off the list leaving you with Boston, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Montreal, Chicago, San Jose and Vancouver as your Stanley Cup favourites, but we all pretty much knew that already didn’t we?

 

Mar 152013
 

A few people didn’t like that I suggested that Jay McClement was a bad player in yesterday’s Mikhail Grabovski post so I thought I would provide a visual representation of McClement’s  mediocrity in the form of 5v5 Zone Start adjusted CF% WOWY charts for each of the past 6 seasons (this season included).

Let’s start with this current season even though the sample size is relatively small and so the number of line mates with a reasonable number of minutes with McClement is relatively small.

McClementCFPctWOWY201213

In this chart, it is better for McClement to have the bubbles below and to the right of the diagional line indicating his teammates corsi for % improved when they were on the ice with McClement. As you can see, none did.

So, what about previous seasons?

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