Jan 172013
 

Earlier today I wrote a post about Tim Connolly and his offensive production at even strength. Shortly after posting that I thought a similar article comparing the performances of Bozak, Kadri and Conolly would be an interesting piece since they are sort of competing for roster spots (more so Kadri and Connolly than Bozak though). Of course, in the mean time Connolly has been put on waivers so to some extent he isn’t relevant anymore but I am including him for interest sake.

Here is a look at their individual offensive performances for the last 2 seasons for Bozak and Kadri and last year for Connolly (since he wasn’t with the Leafs in 2010-11).

Bozak:

Season ESTOI Goals Assists Points TOI/Pt
2011-12 1121:53 14 20 34 33:00
2010-11 1190:08 8 12 20 59:30
Combined 2311:01 22 32 54 42:48

Kadri:

Season ESTOI Goals Assists Points TOI/Pt
2011-12 263:24 4 2 6 44:04
2010-11 382:22 3 7 10 38:14
Combined 645:46 7 9 16 40:22

Connolly:

Season ESTOI Goals Assists Points TOI/Pt
2011-12 940:12 11 20 31 30:20

What is interesting is of the three, Connolly had the best TOI/Pt last year, even better than Bozak who benefited from playing primarily with Kessel and Lupul. Kadri’s most frequent line mates were Lombardi, MacArthur and Connolly while Connolly’s played with almost everyone but had the most minutes with Crabb, Kessel, Lupul, Lombardi and MacArthur (between 180 and 260 with all of them). It seems Connolly was far from the least productive Leaf forward at even strength.

That said, it seems irrelevant now what Connolly has done so more important is to look at Bozak vs Kadri. Overall they have had similar point rates over past 2 seasons but Bozak was much better last year. If all that came from playing with Kessel and Lupul then maybe Kadri is at least equally good.  And when you factor in that Bozak is a downright terrible defensive player I’d almost certainly give Kadri ice time over Bozak.

To put the above stats into perspective, here are Grabovski’s over the past 2 seasons.

Season ESTOI Goals Assists Points TOI/Pt
2011-12 1126:42 18 23 41 27:29
2010-11 1232:33 19 24 43 28:40
Combined 2359:15 37 47 84 28:05

Clearly Grabovski has produced much more at even strength than any of the other three and pretty consistent too. To put Grabovski into perspective though, Malkin had an even strength point every 16:37 last season. That’s domination.

 

Jan 172013
 

Yesterday evening James Mirtle from the Globe and Mail posted an article on The Curious case of Tim Connolly and the Leafs.  It’s worth a read so go read it but the premise of the article is how the narrative around Tim Connolly in training camp is he had a poor year last year and he needs to perform better this year.  Makes sense from most peoples view points but Connolly tries to present a different perspective.

Connolly can be prickly to deal with and wasn’t particularly interested in talking about last season, but when pressed, you could tell he felt he did more of value than the narrative – that he’s been an unmitigated bust in Toronto – would suggest.

Here was his answer when asked (maybe for the second or third time) about needing to “rebound” this season.

“Even strength, I think I had my second highest career points last year,” Connolly said. “I’d like to improve my play on the power play and maybe play a bigger role. Penalty killing, I think, my individual percentage was 89 per cent I read somewhere. I was able to lead the forwards in blocked shots.”

He makes two points in there.  The first is that he had his second highest even strength points last year and the second was something about individual percentage was 89 percent. Lets deal with the first one first by looking at his even strength points since the first lockout.

Season Goals Assists Points
2011-12 11 20 31
2010-11 7 16 23
2009-10 9 27 36
2008-09 12 16 28
2007-08 3 20 23
2005-06 9 20 29

(Note: Connolly only played 2 games in 2006-07 so I have omitted it from the table and discussion)

Tim Connolly is actually correct.  His best even strength point total came in 2009-10 when he had 36 points followed by his 31 even strength points last year.  But let’s take a look at those point totals relative to even strength ice time.

Season ESTOI Points TOI/Pt
2011-12 940:12 31 30:20
2010-11 840:31 23 36:33
2009-10 966:41 36 26:51
2008-09 631:26 28 22:33
2007-08 603:18 23 26:14
2005-06 708:47 29 24:26

The last column is time on ice per point, or time on ice between points.  Last year he was on the ice for an average of 30 minutes and 20 seconds between each of his even strength points. This was his second worst since the locked out season. So, while Connolly was technically correct in saying that he had his second highest even strength point total last season, it was a somewhat misleading representation of his performance.

Now for the individual PK percent. It generated a bit of twitter conversation last night questioning what it actually is.

One might think it is the penalty kill percentage when he was on the ice but that seems like a strange thing to calculate.  Is it goals per 2 minutes of PK time?  Is it goals per PK he spent any amount of time killing?  I really didn’t know so I dug into the numbers deeper by looking at the Leafs PK percentages on my stats site and noticed that Connolly had the best on-ice save percentage (listed as lowest opposition shooting percentage) of any Leaf last season during 4v5 play and that save percentage while he was on the ice was just shy of 89% (88.68%). It seems that maybe what Connolly meant to say was that he had an on-ice PK save percentage of 89%.

How good is an 89% save percentage on the PK?  Well, of the 100 forwards with at least 100 4v5 minutes of ice time last year, Connolly ranks 42nd in the league so league wide it isn’t that impressive but considering the Leafs weak goaltending it might actually be fairly good.

Here is the thing though. Single season PK save percentage is so fraught with sample size issues that it is next to useless as a stat for goalies let alone forwards.

One could evaluate Connolly based on PK goals against rate in which he came up 3rd on the Leafs (trailing Lombardi or Kulemin) but that is still fraught with sample size issues. More fairly we probably should evaluate Connolly’s PK contribution based on shots against rate or maybe even more fairly fenwick or corsi against rates. In each of those categories he ranked 5th among Leafs with at least 50 minutes of 4v5 ice time with only Joey Crabb being worse. Furthermore, among the 110 players with 100 minutes of 4v5 PK ice time last year, Connolly ranked 99th in fenwick against rate.

I don’t mean for this article to be a Connolly bashing article. I actually do think Connolly was a little misused and would probably do better with a more well defined role and not bounced around in the line up so much so in that sense I agree with the premise of what Connolly is saying. With that said though, it probably is fair to say that he didn’t have a great season and if he wants a regular role in the top six with time on the PP and PK he needs to perform better as his use of stats to attempt to show he had a good season is really just evidence to how statistics can be misused to support almost any narrative you want.  As they say, there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.

 

Jul 132011
 

Yesterday I described my player analysis method and used Brad Richards as an example.  Over the next little while I’ll apply my analysis method to a number of players so if there are any players you are interested in seeing my analysis for let me know.  First up is Tim Connolly.  The Leafs lost out on the Brad Richards sweepstakes so lets take a look at how Tim Connolly stacks up.

Let’s start off with a table of what I consider Tim Connolly’s most pertinent information – his 5v5 HARO+ (offense), HARD+ (defense) and HART+ (overall) ratings over the years.

Season(s) HARO+ HARO+ Rank HARD+ HARD+ Rank HART+ HART+ Rank
2007-11 (4yr) 1.171 18/310 0.985 152/310 1.078 31/152
2008-11 (3yr) 1.242 23/319 0.980 158/319 1.111 36/319
2009-11 (2yr) 1.169 67/319 0.975 170/319 1.072 85/319
2010-11 1.045 156/336 0.856 268/336 0.951 220/336
2009-10 1.289 32/338 1.082 100/338 1.185 34/338
2008-09 1.615 2/335 0.941 187/335 1.278 16/335
2007-08 1.322 38/328 0.974 159/328 1.148 55/328

Generally speaking Connolly’s offensive rankings have been well over 1.00 and ranking very highly among all forwards with at minimum 500 minutes of 5v5 time per season and his defensive rankings have been middle of the pack.

Based on Connolly’s offensive statistics he is legitimately a first line center though he has played against relatively weak defensive competition (232/310 in 4 yr OppGA20) as he has played behind Derek Roy in Buffalo.  Last year he played against somewhat tougher defensive competition than he did in 2008-09 and 2009-10 as Derek Roy was injured for more than half the season and he had his worst offensive (and defensive) season so that should be a bit of a concern for Leaf fans.  Still, one season is too short to draw any conclusions so it could just be an anomaly as well but it is something to watch for next season as he’ll likely be given top line duty in Toronto with Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul and play against the oppositions better defensive players.

Of interest to Leaf fans who have suffered through several years of poor PP and PK play is Connolly’s special team numbers.  Over the past 4 seasons Connolly has been played a significant role on Buffalo’s power play and the results have generally been good (his 4 year 5v4 HARO+ rating is 1.169).  Connolly has also played a fair amount (about 100 min/season) on the Buffalo PK unit and his performance has been better than what one would expect from his 5v5 defensive numbers.  His 4-year 4v5 PK HARD+ rating is a more than respectable 1.196 so maybe he can play defense when is he trying to stop the opposition from scoring as opposed to trying to produce offense himself.

Based purely on his performance over the past 4 seasons it seems Connolly is a more than reasonable gamble as one could argue he has legitimate first line offensive capabilities and is at least middle of the pack defensively.  The big question of course with Connolly is his health.  Has has played just 48, 48, 73 and 68 games over the past 4 seasons.  The good news is he hasn’t had a significant concussion in several years and his injuries over the past couple of seasons have been non-serious in nature.  If he can be healthy enough to play 70+ games I think a year from now we could look back and say that Connolly was one of the better free agent signings of the 2011 off season, even with a $4.75M cap hit.