Tomas Vokoun: Elite or No?

In the Hockey Statistical Analysis world Tomas Vokoun is an interesting case study because depending on how he gets evaluated he either shows up as an very good goalie or in some cases a true elite goalie in the NHL.  Most ways we evaluate goalies has to do with save percentages.  We either look at overall save percentage or even strength save percentage or even even strength game tied save percentage.  Under all of these scenarios Vokoun excels to various degrees.  A recent Behind the Net Hockey Blog post asked several hockey statistic analysts to discuss “elite goalies” and Tomas

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Do good teams Create Good Luck? (Updated)

(Updated to include 3 seasons of data as I now realize that more luck data was available) The other day there was a post on the Behind the Net Blog which used betting odds to estimate how lucky a team was during the 2009-10 season.  In many ways it is quite an ingenious way to evaluate a teams luck and I recommend those who have not read it go take a look.  Last night I was watching, sadly, the Leafs-Oilers game and thinking about luck in a hockey game and whether a team has any control over the luck they

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Who is the best Shooter in the NHL?

Who is the best Shooter in the NHL? If you were asked, who is the best shooter in the NHL you might answer Alexander Ovechkin since he has been the most prolific goal scorer since the lockout.  What Ovechkin also always does though is take far more shots than anyone else resulting in a shooting percentage that is for more ordinary.  This past season he was 50th in overall shooting percentage and in 2007-08 he was 46th and those are the only two times he cracked the top 50.  So is Ovechkin a great shooter, or simply great at finding

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My thoughts on Corsi Numbers

I am planning that over the course of the summer and into next season I will get back into analyzing hockey statistics more in depth again.  Over the past couple of seasons Corsi numbers have become much more prevalent so I thought I would start off by discussing what they are and my thoughts on them. Corsi numbers were originally created by former NHL goalie and now Buffalo Sabre goalie coach Jim Corsi.  David Staples recently had a good interview with Corsi which goes into his thought process behind developing Corsi numbers.  The interview is definitely worth a read but let me

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How do Goalie Age Part III

If you have not yet read Part I and Part II of this series, you should probably do that now so you will better understand Part III. In this part I wanted to take a look at individual goalies and see how they compare to the average. The following is a list of the 19 goalies I used to create the goalie performance by age average chart that you see in Part II and if you click on their names you will be shown a chart of their performance compared to the average performance. Chris Osgood Chris Tererri Craig Billington

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How do Goalies Age Part II

Earlier today I posted an article showing how a goalies save percentage varies by age. It was pointed out that one of the flaws in that analysis is that I didn’t account for the fact that over time the average NHL save percentage has varied, and has generally increased over time. In fact, the change from the 1980’s to the 1990’s is quite significant. As a result I decided it was important enough to take the next step and account for variations in league wide save percentages. To accomplish this I took each goalies save percentage and divided it by

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At look at the Importance of Goaltending

I have always believed that goaltending is by far the most important position in hockey and have claimed it can make or break any teams season. I have claimed that the main reason that the Leafs have failed to make the playoffs post lockout is because of bad goaltending. Many others have scoffed at this claim blaming everything from bad defense to bad offense (which is mostly not factually true) to poor coaching, to a combination of all of the above. I have seen others claim that goaltending would account for at most four or five games a year. So,

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