Adjusting for Zone Starts

One of the biggest omissions in my player rankings is making adjustments for zone start differences.  We know that Manny Malhotra has a significant bias towards starting his shifts in the defensive zone and that his teammates Daniel and Henrik Sedin have a significant bias towards starting their shifts in the offensive zone.  The result is Malhotra will unfairly be penalized for giving up more shots and goals against simply because he…

January 23, 2012
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Tim Thomas vs Tuukka Rask

There is a post over at Backhand Shelf today that lists 10 backup goalies that have out performed their #1 counterparts.  It is an interesting read but it may be a perfect example of how simple statistics don’t tell the whole story. The first pair of goalies on the list are the Bruins Tukka Rask vs Tim Thomas. Backup: Tuukka Rask (10-4-1, 1.59 GAA, .945 SV%) Starter: Tim Thomas (17-7-0,…

January 12, 2012
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The Leafs Offensively: Who is good and who is not.

This will be the final part of my unplanned 3-part series on who is good and who is not on the current Leafs team.  The first was about the penalty kill and the second was defensively.  Today we look at the players offensively. The Defensemen Player Name GFA FenF20 Ozone% DION PHANEUF 2.4 15.22 60.2% KEITH AULIE 2.25 14.24 61.9% JOHN-MICHAEL LILES 2.79 13.85 46.1% CARL GUNNARSSON 2.1 13.42 56.1%…

December 16, 2011
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The Leafs Defensively: Who's good and who's not.

Yesterday I took a look at the Leafs players on the PK to see who has seen good result and who has seen bad results when they have been on the ice.  Today I do the same thing but look at 5v5 situations from the defensive side of things to see if there is any consistency between 5v5 and the PK. The Goalies Player Name GAA SV% JAMES REIMER 1.41…

December 15, 2011
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Can a Player Influence his Teammates Shooting Percentage?

Gabe Desjardins of Arctic Ice Hockey asks the question about whether a player can influence his teammates shooting percentage.  To answer this question he took a look at the Pittsburgh Penguins shooting percentages with and without Mario Lemieux.  The conclusion: I’d posit that Lemieux’s playmaking contribution is about as large as we’re going to consistently find – something on the order of 7-8% – and we can use it to…

December 9, 2011
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Showing Shooting Percentage Matters (Yet Again)

I hate to keep beating the “Shooting Percentage Matters” drum but it really dumbfounds me why so many people choose to ignore it, or believe it is only a small part of the game and not worth considering and instead focus their attention on corsi/fenwick, and corsi/fenwick derived stats as their primary evaluation too. It dumbfounds me that people don’t think players have an ability to control shooting percentage yet…

November 22, 2011
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Some Thoughts on Shot Quality

There has been a fair bit of discussion going on regarding shot quality the past few weeks among the hockey stats nuts.  It started with this article about defense independent goalie rating (DIGR) in the wall street journal and several others have chimed in on the discussion so it is my turn. Gabe Desjardins has a post today talking about his hatred of shot quality and how it really isn’t…

October 27, 2011
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On-ice Shooting Percentage as a Talent

There has been an interesting discussion of on-ice shooting percentage at Tyler Dellow’s mc79hockey.com.  I have argued that we need to look at on-ice shooting percentage as a talent, and not something that just happens randomly while others have largely dismissed it.  One person in particular is Gabe Desjardin’s who has a followup post on his blog largely dismissing its importance. In his blog post Gabe first discusses Gaborik’s value just considering his…

October 10, 2011
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Predicting the Western Conference

Yesterday I posted my 100% statistics based predictions for the eastern conference, today here are the predictions for the western conference.  See the eastern conference predictions for more details on how these predictions are calculated but generally speaking I use my player rating system and combine them with my estimates for ice time for every player to come up with a predicted goals for and against for every team.  I…

September 27, 2011
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Predicting the Eastern Conference – Version 2.0

A week or two ago I presented a prediction of the eastern conference using a purely statistics based analysis.  There were a number of limitations with the process which I outlined at the beginning of the post but I have fixed some of those so this is version 2.0 of the prediction algorithm.  Let me summarize the process.  I took each teams current rosters and estimated the amount of even strength,…

September 26, 2011
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