Who are the best two-way centers in NHL over past 5 seasons?

Maybe the most important position in hockey is center, certainly more important than wing and probably more important than defense or goaltending. Even more important is having a real good two-way center capable of playing big minutes at both ends of the rink. Think about the recent Stanley Cup winners. In Chicago you have Jonathan Toews. In Los Angeles you have Anze Kopitar. In Boston you have Patrice Bergeron. Going further back you have Datsyuk in Detroit. These four guys are maybe the best two-way centermen in the league but I wanted to take a more analytical approach to answering that

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The Value of Outliers

Ryan Stimson has been doing some valuable work tracking passes and this morning he posted an interesting analysis of the data he (and others) have collected thus far. It is a very interesting article and definitely worth a read. It is a valuable contribution to shot quality research but the article created some twitter discussion regarding one of the techniques that Ryan used. In particular, when Stimson was looking at the correlation between two variables (i.e. passing ability vs shooting percentage) he noticed that there was often an outlier team and he would subsequently look at the correlation between the two variables while

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Estimating Standard Deviation in On-ice Shooting Percentage Talent

I have tackled the subject of on-ice shooting percentage a number of times here but I think it is a subject that has been under researched in hockey analytics. Historically people have done some split half comparisons found weak correlations and written it off as a significant or useful factor in hockey analytics. While some of the research has merit, a lot of the research deals with too small of a sample size to get any really useful correlations. Split-half season correlations with majority of the players is including players that might have 3 goals int he first half and

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Is success partly to blame for Dion Phaneuf’s and Mikhail Grabovski’s poor corsi last year?

I had first intended this to be a comment to Tyler Dellow’s investigation into Phaneuf and Grabovski shot totals for and against when they were on the ice together but once I started pulling numbers I decided it was important enough to have a post on its own and not get hidden in the comments somewhere. Go read Tyler’s post because it is a worthwhile read but he found that the when Grabovski/Phaneuf were on the ice together the Leafs were incredibly poor at getting shift with shots while good at having shifts where they gave up shots and it

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The declining value of fenwick/corsi with increased sample size

The last several days I have been playing around a fair bit with team data and analyzing various metrics for their usefulness in predicting future outcomes and I have come across some interesting observations. Specifically, with more years of data, fenwick becomes significantly less important/valuable while goals and the percentages become more important/valuable. Let me explain. Let’s first look at the year over year correlations in the various stats themselves. Y1 vs Y2 Y12 vs Y34 Y123 vs Y45 FF% 0.3334 0.2447 0.1937 FF60 0.2414 0.1635 0.0976 FA60 0.3714 0.2743 0.3224 GF% 0.1891 0.2494 0.3514 GF60 0.0409 0.1468 0.1854 GA60

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Team Level Shooting and Save Percentage Matters

For those familiar with my history, I have been a big proponent that there is more to the game of hockey than corsi and that players can certainly drive on-ice shooting percentage. I have not done much work at the team level, but now that I have team stats up at stats.hockeyanalysis.com I figured I’d take a look. Since shooting percentages can vary significantly over small sample sizes, my goal was to use the largest sample size possible.  As such, I used 5 years of team data (2007-08 through 2011-12) and looked at each teams shooting and save percentages over

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Tim Connolly and individual PK%

Yesterday evening James Mirtle from the Globe and Mail posted an article on The Curious case of Tim Connolly and the Leafs.  It’s worth a read so go read it but the premise of the article is how the narrative around Tim Connolly in training camp is he had a poor year last year and he needs to perform better this year.  Makes sense from most peoples view points but Connolly tries to present a different perspective. Connolly can be prickly to deal with and wasn’t particularly interested in talking about last season, but when pressed, you could tell he

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Using goalies to estimate zone start impact on corsi

Eric T. over at NHL Numbers had a post last week summarizing the current state of our statistical knowledge with respect to accounting for zone start differences.  If you haven’t read it definitely go read it because it is not only a good read but because it concludes that how the majority of people have been doing is is wrong. Overall, no two estimates are in direct agreement, but the analyses that are known to derive from looking directly at the outcomes immediately following a faceoff converge in the range of 0.25 to 0.4 Corsi shots per faceoff — one-third

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IPP WOWY Analysis of Crosby/Malkin and Thornton/Marleau

The other week I wrote about breaking down IPP (Individual Point Percentage, which is individual points divided by number of goals scored while the player was on the ice) into IGP (Individual Goal Percentage) and IFAP (Individual First Assist Percentage).  It seems IGP does a decent job of identifying the pure goal scorers and IFAP does a decent job of identifying the pure play makers.  I have always been interested in team/line makeup and how to maximize a lines performance so I decide to take a look at WOWY IPP comparisons for two pairs of extremely talented players who have

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Breaking apart individual point percentage

Scott Reynolds over at NHLNumbers.com has written a series of articles on individual point percentage (IPP).  Individual point percentage is defined as the number of points an individual has collected divided by the number of goals scored while the player was on the ice.  In other words, it is the percentage of goals scored while the player was on the ice that the player either had a goal or an assist on.  Scott’s articles are on individual point percentages for 2011-12, individual point percentages for the last 5 seasons and individual point percentages on the power play.  Definitely go give

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