Who are the best two-way centers in NHL over past 5 seasons?

Maybe the most important position in hockey is center, certainly more important than wing and probably more important than defense or goaltending. Even more important is having a real good two-way center capable of playing big minutes at both ends of the rink. Think about the recent Stanley Cup winners. In Chicago you have Jonathan Toews. In Los Angeles you have Anze Kopitar. In Boston you have Patrice Bergeron. Going…

July 9, 2015

The Value of Outliers

Ryan Stimson has been doing some valuable work tracking passes and this morning he posted an interesting analysis of the data he (and others) have collected thus far. It is a very interesting article and definitely worth a read. It is a valuable contribution to shot quality research but the article created some twitter discussion regarding one of the techniques that Ryan used. In particular, when Stimson was looking at the correlation between…

January 25, 2015

Estimating Standard Deviation in On-ice Shooting Percentage Talent

I have tackled the subject of on-ice shooting percentage a number of times here but I think it is a subject that has been under researched in hockey analytics. Historically people have done some split half comparisons found weak correlations and written it off as a significant or useful factor in hockey analytics. While some of the research has merit, a lot of the research deals with too small of…

December 8, 2014

Is success partly to blame for Dion Phaneuf’s and Mikhail Grabovski’s poor corsi last year?

I had first intended this to be a comment to Tyler Dellow’s investigation into Phaneuf and Grabovski shot totals for and against when they were on the ice together but once I started pulling numbers I decided it was important enough to have a post on its own and not get hidden in the comments somewhere. Go read Tyler’s post because it is a worthwhile read but he found that…

September 6, 2013

The declining value of fenwick/corsi with increased sample size

The last several days I have been playing around a fair bit with team data and analyzing various metrics for their usefulness in predicting future outcomes and I have come across some interesting observations. Specifically, with more years of data, fenwick becomes significantly less important/valuable while goals and the percentages become more important/valuable. Let me explain. Let’s first look at the year over year correlations in the various stats themselves….

February 27, 2013

Team Level Shooting and Save Percentage Matters

For those familiar with my history, I have been a big proponent that there is more to the game of hockey than corsi and that players can certainly drive on-ice shooting percentage. I have not done much work at the team level, but now that I have team stats up at stats.hockeyanalysis.com I figured I’d take a look. Since shooting percentages can vary significantly over small sample sizes, my goal…

January 30, 2013

Tim Connolly and individual PK%

Yesterday evening James Mirtle from the Globe and Mail posted an article on The Curious case of Tim Connolly and the Leafs.  It’s worth a read so go read it but the premise of the article is how the narrative around Tim Connolly in training camp is he had a poor year last year and he needs to perform better this year.  Makes sense from most peoples view points but…

January 17, 2013

Using goalies to estimate zone start impact on corsi

Eric T. over at NHL Numbers had a post last week summarizing the current state of our statistical knowledge with respect to accounting for zone start differences.  If you haven’t read it definitely go read it because it is not only a good read but because it concludes that how the majority of people have been doing is is wrong. Overall, no two estimates are in direct agreement, but the…

November 8, 2012

IPP WOWY Analysis of Crosby/Malkin and Thornton/Marleau

The other week I wrote about breaking down IPP (Individual Point Percentage, which is individual points divided by number of goals scored while the player was on the ice) into IGP (Individual Goal Percentage) and IFAP (Individual First Assist Percentage).  It seems IGP does a decent job of identifying the pure goal scorers and IFAP does a decent job of identifying the pure play makers.  I have always been interested…

October 29, 2012

Breaking apart individual point percentage

Scott Reynolds over at NHLNumbers.com has written a series of articles on individual point percentage (IPP).  Individual point percentage is defined as the number of points an individual has collected divided by the number of goals scored while the player was on the ice.  In other words, it is the percentage of goals scored while the player was on the ice that the player either had a goal or an…

October 17, 2012