Boosting save percentage…

Last night on twitter I posted some GF%RelTM statistics which resulted in a number of comments but notably some from Stephen Burtch about how players cannot be blamed for GF% and is nothing more than a fancy +/- stat and how players can’t be blamed or given credit for things such as save percentage. @hockeyanalysis @mlse Polak .910 on-ice sv% at 5v5 close past 4 years. Robidas .905 on-ice sv%. We should totally blame them. — Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) September 26, 2014 .@hockeyanalysis @mlse Carl Gunnarsson had a .926 5v5 close on-ice sv% which was totally caused by his skill.

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Leafs, Kings and Devils – Rush goals and shooting percentage

Tyler Dellow has an interesting post on differences between the Kings and Leafs offensive production. He comes at the problem from a slightly different angle than I have explored in my rush shot series so definitely go give it a read. These two paragraphs discuss a theory of Dellow’s that is interesting. That’s the sort of thing that can affect a team’s shooting percentage. To take it to an extreme, teams shot 6.2% in the ten seconds after an OZ faceoff win this year; the league average shooting percentage at 5v5 is more like 8%. Of course, when you win

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Introducing “Rush” shots

I have been pondering doing this for a while and over the past few days I finally got around to it. I have had a theory for a while that an average shot resulting from a rush up the ice is more difficult than a shot than the average shot that is generated by offensive zone play. It makes sense for numerous reasons: The rush may be an odd-man rush The rush comes with speed making it more difficult for defense/goalie to defend. Shots are probably take from closer in (aside from when a team wants to do a line

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Bryce Salvador and looking beyond corsi

The rumour is out there that Sunny Mehta has been hired as Director of Hockey Analytics of the New Jersey Devils (if true, a big congrats to Sunny). This sparked some twitter discussion about the Devils and analytics and Devils defensemen including Bryce Salvador. @hockeyanalysis @ToddCordell I don’t know a ton about him apart from that he was the whipping boy of smart/analytically inclined NJ fans. — Fear The Fin (@fearthefin) June 12, 2014 @fearthefin @hockeyanalysis @ToddCordell to be fair, Salvador was the whipping boy to non-stat people this year as well — dsarch (@dsarch) June 12, 2014 I have

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Question for those who don’t believe in shot quality

I am a firm believer in shot quality.  I have probably looked at it a dozen different ways and it seems pretty clear to me that it exists and yet there are still a lot of doubters out there so I wanted to take yet another opportunity to show that show quality exists and give an opportunity for the shot quality deniers to tell me what I am doing wrong if I am doing something wrong. First lets start off with a definition of shot quality to make it clear what I am referring to.  Some people refer to shot

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Some Thoughts on Shot Quality

There has been a fair bit of discussion going on regarding shot quality the past few weeks among the hockey stats nuts.  It started with this article about defense independent goalie rating (DIGR) in the wall street journal and several others have chimed in on the discussion so it is my turn. Gabe Desjardins has a post today talking about his hatred of shot quality and how it really isn’t a significant factor and is dominated by luck and randomness.  Now, generally speaking when others use the shot quality they are mostly talking about thinks like shot distance/location, shot type, whether

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Driving/Suppressing Shooting Percentage

The guys over at Behind the Net have initiated a ‘prove shot quality exists’ competition and in response to that Rob Vollman took a quick and dirty look at shooting percentage suppression.  As I showed the other day, Rob’s logic was a little off. Rob started off by identifying a number of players with high on ice save percentages over the past 3 seasons.  Some of these guys included low minute players mostly playing on the fourth line against other fourth line caliber players, but there were a handful of players who played relative significant number of minutes and still

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The Odd Logic of a Shot Quality Denier

I have posted a few articles here recently about the existence of shot quality, one of which related to last seasons Washington Capitals and one related to how shot quality varies according to game score but there are still shot quality deniers out there.  One of the comments I received from a shot quality denier to those posts was as in depth as “You did it wrong” but offered no further explanation.  So there it stands. Derek Zona and Gabe Desjardins over at Behind the Net Hockey (mostly shot quality deniers) have put up a $150 prize for anyone who

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Score Effects on Shooting Percentage

I thought this debate had been fully hashed out already but apparently some people still don’t believe that the game score has an impact on shooting percentage (and shot quality).  The following table shows the shooting percentages by game score over the past 3 seasons (2007-08 to 2009-10) during even strength situations where neither goalie is pulled for any reason (including delayed penalty situations). Situation Shots Goals SH% Prob<= Prob> Down2+ 23650 1852 7.83 0.3794 0.6206 Down1 30447 2356 7.74 0.1696 0.8304 Tied 60753 4427 7.29 0.0000 1.0000 Up1 26842 2288 8.52 0.9999 0.0001 Up2+ 19351 1779 9.19 1.0000 0.0000

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Who is the best Shooter in the NHL?

Who is the best Shooter in the NHL? If you were asked, who is the best shooter in the NHL you might answer Alexander Ovechkin since he has been the most prolific goal scorer since the lockout.  What Ovechkin also always does though is take far more shots than anyone else resulting in a shooting percentage that is for more ordinary.  This past season he was 50th in overall shooting percentage and in 2007-08 he was 46th and those are the only two times he cracked the top 50.  So is Ovechkin a great shooter, or simply great at finding

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