Roles and Stats Part I: Background and Methodology

This is the first of what will be a series of posts on the impact of roles on stats with a particular interest in the impact of roles on shooting and save percentages. Background My involvement in hockey analytics has been somewhat outside of the main stream. I am a firm believer in shot quality and the ability of players to influence on-ice shooting and save percentages while hockey analytics has…

September 11, 2016

Boosting save percentage…

Last night on twitter I posted some GF%RelTM statistics which resulted in a number of comments but notably some from Stephen Burtch about how players cannot be blamed for GF% and is nothing more than a fancy +/- stat and how players can’t be blamed or given credit for things such as save percentage. @hockeyanalysis @mlse Polak .910 on-ice sv% at 5v5 close past 4 years. Robidas .905 on-ice sv%….

September 26, 2014

Leafs, Kings and Devils – Rush goals and shooting percentage

Tyler Dellow has an interesting post on differences between the Kings and Leafs offensive production. He comes at the problem from a slightly different angle than I have explored in my rush shot series so definitely go give it a read. These two paragraphs discuss a theory of Dellow’s that is interesting. That’s the sort of thing that can affect a team’s shooting percentage. To take it to an extreme,…

July 23, 2014

Introducing “Rush” shots

I have been pondering doing this for a while and over the past few days I finally got around to it. I have had a theory for a while that an average shot resulting from a rush up the ice is more difficult than a shot than the average shot that is generated by offensive zone play. It makes sense for numerous reasons: The rush may be an odd-man rush…

July 9, 2014

Bryce Salvador and looking beyond corsi

The rumour is out there that Sunny Mehta has been hired as Director of Hockey Analytics of the New Jersey Devils (if true, a big congrats to Sunny). This sparked some twitter discussion about the Devils and analytics and Devils defensemen including Bryce Salvador. @hockeyanalysis @ToddCordell I don’t know a ton about him apart from that he was the whipping boy of smart/analytically inclined NJ fans. — Fear The Fin…

June 12, 2014

Question for those who don’t believe in shot quality

I am a firm believer in shot quality.  I have probably looked at it a dozen different ways and it seems pretty clear to me that it exists and yet there are still a lot of doubters out there so I wanted to take yet another opportunity to show that show quality exists and give an opportunity for the shot quality deniers to tell me what I am doing wrong…

August 7, 2012

Some Thoughts on Shot Quality

There has been a fair bit of discussion going on regarding shot quality the past few weeks among the hockey stats nuts.  It started with this article about defense independent goalie rating (DIGR) in the wall street journal and several others have chimed in on the discussion so it is my turn. Gabe Desjardins has a post today talking about his hatred of shot quality and how it really isn’t…

October 27, 2011

Driving/Suppressing Shooting Percentage

The guys over at Behind the Net have initiated a ‘prove shot quality exists’ competition and in response to that Rob Vollman took a quick and dirty look at shooting percentage suppression.  As I showed the other day, Rob’s logic was a little off. Rob started off by identifying a number of players with high on ice save percentages over the past 3 seasons.  Some of these guys included low…

March 18, 2011

The Odd Logic of a Shot Quality Denier

I have posted a few articles here recently about the existence of shot quality, one of which related to last seasons Washington Capitals and one related to how shot quality varies according to game score but there are still shot quality deniers out there.  One of the comments I received from a shot quality denier to those posts was as in depth as “You did it wrong” but offered no…

March 16, 2011

Score Effects on Shooting Percentage

I thought this debate had been fully hashed out already but apparently some people still don’t believe that the game score has an impact on shooting percentage (and shot quality).  The following table shows the shooting percentages by game score over the past 3 seasons (2007-08 to 2009-10) during even strength situations where neither goalie is pulled for any reason (including delayed penalty situations). Situation Shots Goals SH% Prob<= Prob>…

March 15, 2011