Driving/Suppressing Shooting Percentage

The guys over at Behind the Net have initiated a ‘prove shot quality exists’ competition and in response to that Rob Vollman took a quick and dirty look at shooting percentage suppression.  As I showed the other day, Rob’s logic was a little off. Rob started off by identifying a number of players with high on ice save percentages over the past 3 seasons.  Some of these guys included low minute players mostly playing on the fourth line against other fourth line caliber players, but there were a handful of players who played relative significant number of minutes and still

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Score Effects on Shooting Percentage

I thought this debate had been fully hashed out already but apparently some people still don’t believe that the game score has an impact on shooting percentage (and shot quality).  The following table shows the shooting percentages by game score over the past 3 seasons (2007-08 to 2009-10) during even strength situations where neither goalie is pulled for any reason (including delayed penalty situations). Situation Shots Goals SH% Prob<= Prob> Down2+ 23650 1852 7.83 0.3794 0.6206 Down1 30447 2356 7.74 0.1696 0.8304 Tied 60753 4427 7.29 0.0000 1.0000 Up1 26842 2288 8.52 0.9999 0.0001 Up2+ 19351 1779 9.19 1.0000 0.0000

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Washington’s 2009-10 Shooting Percentage…

Yesterday there was a post on the Behind the Net Blog which discussed the Washington Capital’s 2009-10 even strength shooting percentage of 11.0% and the conclusion was that it must be mostly luck which resulted in a shooting percentage that high.  But was it?  It was noted in the article that in 2007-08 the Capitals shot at 8.1%, in 2008-09 they shot at 8.2% and this season they are shooting at 8.2% again.  So clearly 2009-10 appears to be an anomaly, but was it a luck driven anomaly or something else? Most people in the hockey analysis world have been using

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