Team Level Shooting and Save Percentage Matters

For those familiar with my history, I have been a big proponent that there is more to the game of hockey than corsi and that players can certainly drive on-ice shooting percentage. I have not done much work at the team level, but now that I have team stats up at stats.hockeyanalysis.com I figured I’d take a look. Since shooting percentages can vary significantly over small sample sizes, my goal was to use the largest sample size possible.  As such, I used 5 years of team data (2007-08 through 2011-12) and looked at each teams shooting and save percentages over

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Relative Importance of a Players Impact on Teammate Shooting Percentage

A month and a half ago Eric T at NHLNumbers.com had a good post on quantifying the impact on teammate shooting percentage.  I wanted to take a second look at the relative importance the impact on teammate shooting percentage can have because I disagreed somewhat with Eric’s conclusions. For a very small number of elite playmakers, the ability to drive shooting percentage can be a major component of their value. For the vast majority of the league, driving possession is a more significant and more reproducible path to success. It is my belief that it is important to consider impact

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On-ice shooting percentage is sustainable…

Prior to the season Gabe Desjardins and I had a conversation over at MC79hockey.com where I predicted several players would combine for a 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage above 10.0% while league average is just shy of 8.0%.  I documented this in a post prior to the season.  In short, I predicted the following: Crosby, Gaborik, Ryan, St. Louis, H. Sedin, Toews, Heatley, Tanguay, Datsyuk, and Nathan Horton will have a combined on-ice shooting percentage above 10.0% Only two of those 10 players will have an on-ice shooting percentage below 9.5% So, how did my prediction fair?  The following table tells all. Player

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Post Lockout Team Save Percentages

Looking at this chart, I think only Lightning fans can sympathize with the torture that Leaf fans have suffered through with regards to their goaltending, but at least the Lightning have made the playoffs a few times and even had some success. Update:  For interest sake, here are the post lockout shooting percentages and PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage).    

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Thoughts on PDO and Luck

One of my beefs in the analysis and evaluation of hockey players is the notion that PDO (on-ice shooting percentage plus on-ice save percentage) can be used as a proxy for luck.  A perfect example of how PDO is used as a proxy for luck is this article by Neil Greenberg about the Washington Capitals. For example, when Alex Ovechkin has been on the ice during even strength this season, the team has a shooting percentage of 8.2 percent and has saved shots at a rate of .917. So that makes his PDO value 999 (.082+.917=.999), which is almost exactly

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Corsi vs Shooting %: Gomez vs Cammalleri

I have been having a discussion as to whether shot quality exists over at Pension Plan Puppets and more precisely whether certain players can drive a teams shooting percentage while they are on the ice.  As part of the discussion I brought up the on-ice shooting percentage differences between Scott Gomez and Michael Cammalleri and decided that it would be useful to present that comparison as a post here. First off, let me define shot quality as how I see it.  Shot quality is an ability for players to systematically drive (or suppress) shooting percentages when they are on the ice.

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Can a Player Influence his Teammates Shooting Percentage?

Gabe Desjardins of Arctic Ice Hockey asks the question about whether a player can influence his teammates shooting percentage.  To answer this question he took a look at the Pittsburgh Penguins shooting percentages with and without Mario Lemieux.  The conclusion: I’d posit that Lemieux’s playmaking contribution is about as large as we’re going to consistently find – something on the order of 7-8% – and we can use it to bound the impact that a player can truly have on the quality of his teammates’ scoring chances. Since I have the numbers handy I figured I’d take a look at

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Showing Shooting Percentage Matters (Yet Again)

I hate to keep beating the “Shooting Percentage Matters” drum but it really dumbfounds me why so many people choose to ignore it, or believe it is only a small part of the game and not worth considering and instead focus their attention on corsi/fenwick, and corsi/fenwick derived stats as their primary evaluation too. It dumbfounds me that people don’t think players have an ability to control shooting percentage yet we all seem to agree that shooting percentage is affected by game score.  Rob Vollman wrote the following in a comment thread at arctic ice hockey. <blockqote>The score can affect

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Some Thoughts on Shot Quality

There has been a fair bit of discussion going on regarding shot quality the past few weeks among the hockey stats nuts.  It started with this article about defense independent goalie rating (DIGR) in the wall street journal and several others have chimed in on the discussion so it is my turn. Gabe Desjardins has a post today talking about his hatred of shot quality and how it really isn’t a significant factor and is dominated by luck and randomness.  Now, generally speaking when others use the shot quality they are mostly talking about thinks like shot distance/location, shot type, whether

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On-ice Shooting Percentage as a Talent

There has been an interesting discussion of on-ice shooting percentage at Tyler Dellow’s mc79hockey.com.  I have argued that we need to look at on-ice shooting percentage as a talent, and not something that just happens randomly while others have largely dismissed it.  One person in particular is Gabe Desjardin’s who has a followup post on his blog largely dismissing its importance. In his blog post Gabe first discusses Gaborik’s value just considering his on-ice shooting percentage. So are these totals 75% skill then?  Let’s do a quick check on how many goals that skill would be worth: 1000 on-ice shots/season * 2.5% above

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