Rush Shots and Defensive Zone Play of Maple Leaf Defensemen

The other day over at PensionPlanPuppets.com there was a post by Draglikepull looking at zone exits by Maple Leaf defensemen for the first half of last season. If you haven’t seen it yet, definitely go read it. I wanted to compare the zone exit data to my rush shot data which I have calculated from play by play data as explained here. If we can find good correlations between zone entry/exit data and my rush shot data that would be an excellent finding because the zone entry/exit data need to be manually recorded and is very time consuming. Thankfully this

» Read more

Leafs, Kings and Devils – Rush goals and shooting percentage

Tyler Dellow has an interesting post on differences between the Kings and Leafs offensive production. He comes at the problem from a slightly different angle than I have explored in my rush shot series so definitely go give it a read. These two paragraphs discuss a theory of Dellow’s that is interesting. That’s the sort of thing that can affect a team’s shooting percentage. To take it to an extreme, teams shot 6.2% in the ten seconds after an OZ faceoff win this year; the league average shooting percentage at 5v5 is more like 8%. Of course, when you win

» Read more

Rush Shot Stats for Individual Players – Forwards

If you haven’t read my previous posts on rush shots or want to learn more about how I determine what is and what is not a rush shot please go back and read the series. Introducing Rush Shots Rush Shots Leading vs Trailing and Home vs Road Rush Shot Save Percentage Columbus Blue Jackets and Rush Shots So far I have only looked at team data but I have now calculated rush shots by players and so I will take a look at rush shots by forwards. I am restricting my analysis to forwards who have been on the ice

» Read more

Columbus Blue Jackets and Rush Shots

Before I get into rush shots of individual players I am going to look at some teams. I am starting with the Columbus Blue Jackets which was suggested for me to look at by Jeff Townsend who was interested to see impact the decline of Steve Mason and then the transition to Bobrovsky had. Before we get to that though, let’s first look at the offensive side of things (and if you haven’t read my introductory pieces on rush shots read them here, here and here). The League data is league average over the past 7 seasons. There is a lot of randomness happening

» Read more

Rush Shot Save Percentage

I have written a couple of posts (here and here) on rush shots as it relates to shooting percentages and I investigate this further at a later date. First though, I wanted to take a look at save percentages on rush and non-rush shots. Let’s start by looking at teach teams 5v5 road save percentages for the past 7 seasons combined. A few observations: Whoa Tampa! That’s a dreadful save percentage on the rush, 2.5% below anyone else. More on this later. The teams with the best save percentages on the rush are Anaheim, Phoenix, New Jersey, and Boston. r^2 between

» Read more

Rush Shots Leading vs Trailing and Home vs Road

Yesterday I introduced the concept of rush shots which are basically any shot we can identify as being a shot taken subsequent to a rush up the ice which can be determined by the location of previous face off, shot, hit, giveaway or takeaway events. If you haven’t read the post from yesterday go give it a read for a more formal definition of what a rush shot is. Today I am going to take a look at how rush shots vary when teams are leading vs trailing as well as investigate home/road differences as arena biases in hits, giveaways

» Read more

Introducing “Rush” shots

I have been pondering doing this for a while and over the past few days I finally got around to it. I have had a theory for a while that an average shot resulting from a rush up the ice is more difficult than a shot than the average shot that is generated by offensive zone play. It makes sense for numerous reasons: The rush may be an odd-man rush The rush comes with speed making it more difficult for defense/goalie to defend. Shots are probably take from closer in (aside from when a team wants to do a line

» Read more