Some Thoughts on Shot Quality

There has been a fair bit of discussion going on regarding shot quality the past few weeks among the hockey stats nuts.  It started with this article about defense independent goalie rating (DIGR) in the wall street journal and several others have chimed in on the discussion so it is my turn. Gabe Desjardins has a post today talking about his hatred of shot quality and how it really isn’t…

October 27, 2011

Evaluating Tim Connolly

Yesterday I described my player analysis method and used Brad Richards as an example.  Over the next little while I’ll apply my analysis method to a number of players so if there are any players you are interested in seeing my analysis for let me know.  First up is Tim Connolly.  The Leafs lost out on the Brad Richards sweepstakes so lets take a look at how Tim Connolly stacks…

July 13, 2011

How I Evaluate Players (and Why)

Over the past couple of weeks I have had several comment discussions regarding some of my recent posts on player evaluation and Norris and Hart trophy candidates which centered around which is a better method for evaluating players:  corsi vs goal based evaluation.  A lot of people, maybe the majority of those within the advanced hockey stat community, seem to prefer corsi based analysis while I prefer goal based analysis…

July 12, 2011

Persistence and Predictability

There seems to be some confusion, or lack of clarity, about my post on corsi vs shooting percentage vs shooting rate the other day so let me clear it up in as straight forward a way as I can. “Hawerchuk” over at writes the following: “I’m not totally sure what he’s getting at. People use Fenwick because it’s persistent, and PDO because it’s not. Over the course of a…

June 1, 2011

Goal Rates better than Corsi/Fenwick in Player Evaluation

The general consensus among advanced hockey statistic analyzers and is that corsi/fenwick stats are the best statistic for measuring player and team talent levels.  For those of you who are not aware of corsi and fenwick let me give you a quick definition.  Corsi numbers are the number of shots directed at the goal and include shots, missed shots and blocked shots.  Fenwick numbers are the same except it does…

May 30, 2011

Making a Case for Redden

Ok, let me start by stating that Wade Redden is not worth $6.5M.  He may be never was and the contract (6 years, $39M) the Rangers gave Redden was one of the worst ever handed out in NHL history.  In part because he is not worth that and in part because there is no evidence that any other team had any interest in offering anything close to that amount so…

September 29, 2010