Jan 172013
 

Earlier today I wrote a post about Tim Connolly and his offensive production at even strength. Shortly after posting that I thought a similar article comparing the performances of Bozak, Kadri and Conolly would be an interesting piece since they are sort of competing for roster spots (more so Kadri and Connolly than Bozak though). Of course, in the mean time Connolly has been put on waivers so to some extent he isn’t relevant anymore but I am including him for interest sake.

Here is a look at their individual offensive performances for the last 2 seasons for Bozak and Kadri and last year for Connolly (since he wasn’t with the Leafs in 2010-11).

Bozak:

Season ESTOI Goals Assists Points TOI/Pt
2011-12 1121:53 14 20 34 33:00
2010-11 1190:08 8 12 20 59:30
Combined 2311:01 22 32 54 42:48

Kadri:

Season ESTOI Goals Assists Points TOI/Pt
2011-12 263:24 4 2 6 44:04
2010-11 382:22 3 7 10 38:14
Combined 645:46 7 9 16 40:22

Connolly:

Season ESTOI Goals Assists Points TOI/Pt
2011-12 940:12 11 20 31 30:20

What is interesting is of the three, Connolly had the best TOI/Pt last year, even better than Bozak who benefited from playing primarily with Kessel and Lupul. Kadri’s most frequent line mates were Lombardi, MacArthur and Connolly while Connolly’s played with almost everyone but had the most minutes with Crabb, Kessel, Lupul, Lombardi and MacArthur (between 180 and 260 with all of them). It seems Connolly was far from the least productive Leaf forward at even strength.

That said, it seems irrelevant now what Connolly has done so more important is to look at Bozak vs Kadri. Overall they have had similar point rates over past 2 seasons but Bozak was much better last year. If all that came from playing with Kessel and Lupul then maybe Kadri is at least equally good.  And when you factor in that Bozak is a downright terrible defensive player I’d almost certainly give Kadri ice time over Bozak.

To put the above stats into perspective, here are Grabovski’s over the past 2 seasons.

Season ESTOI Goals Assists Points TOI/Pt
2011-12 1126:42 18 23 41 27:29
2010-11 1232:33 19 24 43 28:40
Combined 2359:15 37 47 84 28:05

Clearly Grabovski has produced much more at even strength than any of the other three and pretty consistent too. To put Grabovski into perspective though, Malkin had an even strength point every 16:37 last season. That’s domination.

 

Dec 162011
 

This will be the final part of my unplanned 3-part series on who is good and who is not on the current Leafs team.  The first was about the penalty kill and the second was defensively.  Today we look at the players offensively.

The Defensemen

Player Name GFA FenF20 Ozone%
DION PHANEUF 2.4 15.22 60.2%
KEITH AULIE 2.25 14.24 61.9%
JOHN-MICHAEL LILES 2.79 13.85 46.1%
CARL GUNNARSSON 2.1 13.42 56.1%
CODY FRANSON 2.37 13.2 47.2%
JAKE GARDINER 2.25 12.79 54.3%
LUKE SCHENN 2.49 12 47.3%
MIKE KOMISAREK 2.82 10.95 40.8%

Included in the table above are goals for average (goals for per 60 min.), fenwick for per 20 minutes and offensive zone faceoff percentage which gives an indication which players start most frequently in the offensive zone.  There really isn’t too much exciting going on here.  For the most part the defensemen’s FenF20 is driven by their Ozone%.  The r^2 between FenF20 and Ozone% is 0.60 so there is a pretty tight correlation.  The only deviation is Liles who generates more offense than his Ozone% indicates he should.  The r^2 is 0.80 if we don’t include Liles.  So offensively, it seems Liles is the only defenseman who is able to drive the play significantly more than any of the others.  Looks like he might be worth keeping around.  Let’s get his name on a contract extension.

The Forwards

Player Name GF20 FenF20 Ozone%
PHIL KESSEL 3.36 14.91 51.3%
MIKHAIL GRABOVSKI 2.79 14.67 57.6%
JOFFREY LUPUL 3.6 14.5 50.2%
NAZEM KADRI 3.54 14.13 48.1%
MIKE BROWN 1.2 14.13 49.5%
TYLER BOZAK 2.97 13.97 49.3%
NIKOLAI KULEMIN 2.46 13.68 53.4%
DAVID STECKEL 1.26 13.21 48.6%
CLARKE MACARTHUR 2.97 12.92 56.3%
MATT FRATTIN 2.07 12.64 49.5%
TIM CONNOLLY 2.43 12.63 46.1%
MATTHEW LOMBARDI 2.46 11.94 54.1%
PHILIPPE DUPUIS 0 11.65 50.0%
JOEY CRABB 2.34 11.57 56.1%
JOE COLBORNE 3.33 11.29 50.0%
JAY ROSEHILL 0 10.6 43.1%
COLBY ARMSTRONG 0.87 10.41 51.3%
COLTON ORR 3.21 9.65 22.2%

Unlike the defensemen there is very little correlation between the Ozone% and FenF20 (r^2=0.0395) which means there is no rhyme or reason to where these guys are starting on the ice.  Joey Crabb can’t seem to drive offense and yet has an Ozone% of 56.1%.  The best offensive line of Kessel-Lupul-Bozak start about 50% of the time in the defensive zone while our supposed defensive specialist Philippe Dupuis starts half the time in the offensive zone.  What’s that all about coach?  Aside from those oddities it is kind of what we’d expect.  Offense is driven by the Kessel and Grabovski lines.  Generally speaking, there aren’t too many surprises in regards to how the Leafs are performing offensively.  The only surprise might be Mike Brown rating so highly.  This is pretty abnormal for him so probably just small sample size issues going on.