Alexander Semin and elite unrestricted free agent

One of the top NHL unrestricted free agents this summer is the Washington Capitals Alexander Semin.  Semin  has seen his goal production drop from 40 goals in 2009-10 to 28 in 2010-11 to post-lockout low of 21 this past season and as a result peoples general view of Semin’s value has dropped significantly.  The question is, what was the reason for his drop off in offensive stats.  Is it Semin…

June 15, 2012
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Drafting defensemen a bigger gamble than drafting forwards

If you browse through the list of top NHL forwards you will find it consisting mostly of first round picks, and especially top 10 overall picks.  But when you browse through the list of top NHL defensemen far fewer of them were drafted in the first round and even fewer among the top 10.  Here is a list of all defensemen who gathered 40 points in the NHL last season….

June 12, 2012
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2012 NHL free agent defensemen

Last week I took a look at the crop of 1012 NHL free agent forwards and today I will take a look at the group of free agent defensemen.  As I did with forwards, I will use my HARO+ (offensive), HARD+ (defensive) and HART+ (total/overall) rating system which takes into account on-ice performance, quality of teammates, and quality of opposition.  Generally speaking, a rating over 1.00 is an above average…

June 11, 2012
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2012 NHL free agent forwards

With the Los Angeles Kings on the verge of winning the Stanley Cup and teams already making moves towards next seasons (i.e. Vokoun to Pittsburgh) it is time to take a closer look at class of unrestricted free agents.  Today I’ll take a look at the free agent forwards. As I have mentioned previously, I feel the best and most reliable player ratings are my 5v5 zone start adjusted HARO+…

June 5, 2012
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Now with charts…

I have a ton of information on my stats website stats.hockeyanalysis.com but one of the things I have always wanted to do is to make it more visual and I’d like to announce the first step in that process.  Thanks to google and their cool google chart api I have now added bubble charts when you do a stats search that returns no more than 30 players (more than 30…

June 4, 2012
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Predicting the Eastern Conference – Version 2.0

A week or two ago I presented a prediction of the eastern conference using a purely statistics based analysis.  There were a number of limitations with the process which I outlined at the beginning of the post but I have fixed some of those so this is version 2.0 of the prediction algorithm.  Let me summarize the process.  I took each teams current rosters and estimated the amount of even strength,…

September 26, 2011
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How Bad is the Tomas Kopecky Contract?

Anyone who knows anything about hockey, save for Florida GM Dale Tallon it seems, immediately thought ‘bad contract’ when they heard that the Florida Panthers had signed Tomas Kopecky to a 4 year contract at $3M/year.  But how bad is that contract?  Well, lets take a look. Goal based stats (i.e. any stats that requite goals to calculate which is pretty much everything except things like shots or corsi) are…

June 30, 2011
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Introducing New Stats Site

I have been pretty quiet here recently not because of a lack of things I want to write about but because I needed to get my stats site up and running first so I can reference it in my writings.  Plus, getting my stats site up has been on my todo list for a real long time.  There will be a lot more stats to come including my with/against on…

December 15, 2010
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NHL's Attendance Woes

Attendance across much of the NHL appears to be trending downward this season which may create new trouble spots for the NHL and with the Canadian dollar unlikely to rise as significantly this year as the previous couple years, we could, for the first time, see the salary cap fall. Last year there were 19 games with fewer than 10,000 fans, 13 of them in Phoenix and one of them…

October 29, 2010
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Overtime/Shootout Stats

Gus Kastaros this morning posted some NHL overtime statistics on his twitter account this morning which got me digging into the stats a little more. KatsHockey > Overtime on the other hand is at #NHL record setting pace of 208 games .. in past week (7 days) have been 8 OT games KatsHockey > Only six shootouts in #NHL thus far & only two shootout games in past 42 games…

October 20, 2010
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