Using goalies to estimate zone start impact on corsi

Eric T. over at NHL Numbers had a post last week summarizing the current state of our statistical knowledge with respect to accounting for zone start differences.  If you haven’t read it definitely go read it because it is not only a good read but because it concludes that how the majority of people have been doing is is wrong. Overall, no two estimates are in direct agreement, but the analyses that are known to derive from looking directly at the outcomes immediately following a faceoff converge in the range of 0.25 to 0.4 Corsi shots per faceoff — one-third

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Identifying the top defensive centers in the NHL

Offensive players generally get all of the attention but defensive players are often just as valuable to a team.  Ask any NHL fan who the top offensive centers in the league are and they will quickly ramble off a few names from Crosby to Stamkos to Getzlaf to Malkin, etc.  Ask a fan to list the top defensive centers and the task becomes a little more difficult.  So, I decided to look into defensive centers a little further. What makes a valuable defensive center?  Well, they should play against tough competition, they should give up fewer goals than expected, and

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Where to go from here…

There seems to be a lot of pessimism after the NHL walked out on negotiations with the NHLPA yesterday but the reality is that the NHL and NHLPA have come a long way.  The initial NHL offer to the NHLPA was that the players would get a 43% share of revenue.  The initial offer from the NHLPA to the NHL was that the players would subsidize a larger revenue sharing pool for 3 seasons through a reduction in their share of revenue but then bounce back to a 57% share in year 4.  As of yesterday, both the owners and

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Breaking apart individual point percentage

Scott Reynolds over at NHLNumbers.com has written a series of articles on individual point percentage (IPP).  Individual point percentage is defined as the number of points an individual has collected divided by the number of goals scored while the player was on the ice.  In other words, it is the percentage of goals scored while the player was on the ice that the player either had a goal or an assist on.  Scott’s articles are on individual point percentages for 2011-12, individual point percentages for the last 5 seasons and individual point percentages on the power play.  Definitely go give

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Eight years later nothing has changed.

At this time eight years ago the NHL had locked out the players and the NHL was on the verge of cancelling regular season NHL games, and eventually went on to cancel the whole 2004-05 NHL season.  Back then the issue was related to controlling player salaries so more teams can compete on the ice and more importantly be able to compete, and survive, financially.  Eventually the NHL and NHLPA came to a resolution, after the NHLPA all but imploded, which saw the players salaries rolled back 24%, a salary cap system would be instituted, and the players salaries as

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Innovative Solution to Lockout

It looks like the NHL and the NHLPA are in a stale mate in terms of the CBA negotiations.  As of right now the NHL is holding firm on its stand of limiting players to 47% of revenue and the players are holding firm on its stand of not wanting to see any roll back of salaries either through a negotiated roll back or through escrow though the players are willing to scale back the growth of player salaries. When the CBA negotiations started outside observers believed a final resolution to the CBA would see the owners and the players

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Why NHL expansion makes sense

There is an article in the Globe and Mail today discussing the possibility of the NHL expanding to 32 teams, and more specifically Seattle being one expansion possibility.  To many expansion seems counter intuitive considering there are a lot of teams that are already in financial distress that can hardly keep their heads above water as it is.  Some people are actually suggesting contraction is the much better option and on the surface that makes sense.  At least to us the fan.  Drop off the weak teams that can’t support a strong fan base and in the process improve the

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Can the NHL owners really be losing money?

Last week the NHL CBA negotations too a turn for the worse as both sides basically agreed to disagree and have temporarily walked away from negotiations.  Despite that I am still reasonable optimistic that there will not be a lock out or work stoppage anywhere close to as long as the 2004-05 lost season and I believe that any lockout will be measured in weeks and not months.  The reason is, the NHL is not losing money this time around as they were in 2004-05 and if there was a lost NHL season there would most certainly be significant lost

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A Maple Leaf Fan Dreaming of UFA Season

I generally have had little expectations/hope that Burke can dramatically rebuild this team into a serious playoff contender this season because of the large contracts that nobody wants on the roster, but after some thinking, I think there is way he can do it.  This is all pure speculation and hope, but don’t we all like to do that from time to time?  And as Maple Leaf fans, hope is pretty much all we have right now. When Burke traded for James van Riemsdyk a week ago he indicated that he expects to see him playing the wing, and in

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Jordan Staal vs Brandon Sutter

The Pittsburgh Penguins made the biggest noise at the NHL entry draft yesterday trading Jordan Staal to the Carolina Hurricanes for Brandon Sutter, the 8th overall pick which they used to draft defenseman Derrick Pouliot and defense prospect Brian Dumoulin. Essentially this trade comes down to the Penguins trading their 3rd line center Jordan Staal, who wants to be a first or second line center and would leave as a UFA next summer to do so, for Carolina’s 3rd line center Brandon Sutter and a pair of promising defense prospects.  So, how do Jordan Staal and Brandon Sutter compare as

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