Jul 012014
 

The other day I commented on twitter that I would be happy if the Leafs signed defenseman Mike Weaver because I think he is a defensive defenseman that I think the Leafs could really use. I have thought of Mike Weaver as a premier defensive defenseman for quite some time now. I always seem to get a little flak over it but that’s fine, I can handle it. For example, as a response to my Weaver comment on twitter Eric Tulsky thought it would be prudent to point out a “flaw” in my thought process.

 

And of course, Tyler Dellow never passes up an opportunity to take a jab at me (or anyone who he disagrees with) took the opportunity to re-tweet it.

Now, of course I had thought of responding with a tweet to the effect of “Florida’s save percentage was probably is a bit of a factor in that regression” but I didn’t want to get into a twitter debate at that moment and I was confident I could come up with more concrete evidence. So here is that evidence.

SavePercentageWeaverOnOffIce

The above chart shows the save percentage of Weaver’s team when Weaver is on the ice vs when Weaver is not on the ice including only games in which Weaver has played in (i.e. it is better than just using team save percentage for that season and also allows us to combine his time in Florida and Montreal last season). As you can see, there has only been one season in the last 7 in which his team had a worse save percentage when he is on the ice than not. That is reasonably compelling evidence. It’s difficult to say what happened that season but his main defense partners were a young Dmitry Kulikov and Keaton Ellerby so maybe that was a factor. An investigation of Kulikov’s and Ellerby’s impact on save percentage over the years may help us identify why Weaver slipped that year. It could have been a nagging injury as well. Or, it could just be randomness associated with save percentage.

Regardless of the “reason” for the slide in 2011-12 it is pretty difficult to argue that there has been significant “regression” the past 3 seasons as Tulsky and Dellow so eagerly wanted to point out as the past 2 seasons Weaver has seemingly had a significant positive impact on his teams save percentage. Since I made that statement there has been one seasons of “regression” so to speak and two seasons in support of my claim. I guess that means it is 2-1 in my favour. It continues to appear that Weaver is a good defenseman who can suppress shot quality against.

Another defenseman I have identified as a defenseman who possibly can suppress opposition save percentage is Bryce Salvador. Here is Salvador’s on/off save percentage chart similar to Weaver’s above (2010-11 is missing as Salvador missed the season due to injury).

SavePercentageSalvadorOnOffIce

Salvador’s on-ice save percentage has been better than the teams save percentage every year since 2007-08. Regression? Doesn’t seem to be.

To summarize, there are a lot of instances where if we simply do a correlation of stats from one year to the next or  make observations of future performance relative to past performance we see the appearance of regression. In fact, the raw stats do in fact regress. That doesn’t necessarily mean the talent doesn’t exist, just that we haven’t been able to properly isolate the talent. The talent of the individual player is only a small factor in what outcomes occur when he is on the ice (a single player is just one of 12 players on the ice during typical even strength play) so it is difficult to identify without attempting to account for these other factors (quality of team mates in particular).

Possession and shot generation/suppression is important, but ignore the percentages at your peril. They can matter a lot in player evaluation.

 

Apr 052013
 

Yesterday HabsEyesOnThePrize.com had a post on the importance of fenwick come playoff time over the past 5 seasons. It is definitely worth a look so go check it out. In the post they look at FF% in 5v5close situations and see how well it translates into post season success. I wanted to take this a step further and take a look at PDO and GF% in 5v5close situations to see of they translate into post season success as well.  Here is what I found:

Group N Avg Playoff Avg Cup Winners Lost Cup Finals Lost Third Round Lost Second Round Lost First Round Missed Playoffs
GF% > 55 19 2.68 2.83 5 1 2 6 4 1
GF% 50-55 59 1.22 1.64 0 2 6 10 26 15
GF% 45-50 52 0.62 1.78 0 2 2 4 10 34
GF% <45 20 0.00 - 0 0 0 0 0 20
FF% > 53 23 2.35 2.35 3 2 4 5 9 0
FF% 50-53 55 1.15 1.70 2 2 1 10 22 18
FF% 47-50 46 0.52 1.85 0 0 4 3 6 33
FF% <47 26 0.54 2.00 0 1 1 2 3 19
PDO >1010 27 1.63 2.20 2 2 2 6 8 7
PDO 1000-1010 42 1.17 1.75 1 0 5 7 15 14
PDO 990-1000 47 0.91 1.95 2 1 3 4 12 25
PDO <990 34 0.56 1.90 0 2 0 3 5 24

I have grouped GF%, FF% and PDO into four categories each, the very good, the good, the mediocre and the bad and I have looked at how many teams made it to each round of the playoffs from each group. If we say that winning the cup is worth 5 points, getting to the finals is worth 4, getting to the 3rd round is worth 3, getting to the second round is worth 2, and making the playoffs is worth 1, then the Avg column is the average point total for the teams in that grouping.  The Playoff Avg is the average point total for teams that made the playoffs.

As HabsEyesOnThePrize.com found, 5v5close FF% is definitely an important factor in making the playoffs and enjoying success in the playoffs. That said, GF% seems to be slightly more significant. All 5 Stanley Cup winners came from the GF%>55 group while only 3 cup winners came from the FF%>53 group and both Avg and PlayoffAvg are higher in the GF%>55 group than the FF%>53 group. PDO only seems marginally important, though teams that have a very good PDO do have a slightly better chance to go deeper into the playoffs. Generally speaking though, if you are trying to predict a Stanley Cup winner, looking at 5v5close GF% is probably a better metric than looking at 5v5close FF% and certainly better than PDO. Now, considering this is a significantly shorter season than usual, this may not be the case as luck may be a bit more of a factor in GF% than usual but historically this has been the case.

So, who should we look at for playoff success this season?  Well, there are currently 9 teams with a 5v5close GF% > 55.  Those are Anaheim, Boston, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Montreal, Chicago, San Jose, Toronto and Vancouver. No other teams are above 52.3% so that is a list unlikely to get any new additions to it before seasons end though some could certainly fall out of the above 55% list. Now if we also only consider teams that have a 5v5close FF% >50% then Toronto and Anaheim drop off the list leaving you with Boston, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Montreal, Chicago, San Jose and Vancouver as your Stanley Cup favourites, but we all pretty much knew that already didn’t we?