Should Leafs give up on Armstrong?

Over at, Cam Charron did a corsi-based analysis of Colby Armstrong and came up with mixed conclusions regarding his performance over the past several seasons. So, causes? What caused a player with pretty good possession statistics in Atlanta to completely fall off the map in the last two seasons? System? Trust? Role? A flaw in advanced statistics when players move teams? Or was it just all the injuries that…

May 18, 2012

State of the Leafs – Defense and Goaltending

Last week I took a look at the Leafs forwards, today I’ll take a look at their defense and goaltending.  As with the forwards, I’ll evaluate the defensemen using their 5v5 zone start adjusted HARO+, HARD+ and HART+ ratings but with goalies I will evaluate them using their 5v5 zone start adjusted HARD+ rating and save percentage.  I have included the past 5 individual seasons as well as the most…

April 17, 2012

State of the Leafs – Forwards

With the Maple Leafs season having ended early once again a it is time to take an honest and unbiased look at what the team has and what the team needs to get to improve.  This will be a multi-post endeavour that will start with this post which will be a statistical evaluation of the Leafs forwards.  Included in each players evaluation is a table of their 5v5 zone start adjusted…

April 12, 2012

Thoughts on Burke press conference

Just listened to the Brian Burke press conference and I have to say it was a whole lot of nothing.  I’ll give Burke this summer to make some changes but based on that press conference I don’t have a lot of confidence in his assessment of the team. He talked a lot about how everything was fine with the club on February 6th before things unexpectedly fell apart.  Well, in…

April 10, 2012

How things have changed…

As we approach the end of the 2011-12 NHL regular season there will be a lot of analysis and looking back at the past seasons for the Leafs and then looking forward to the off season and beyond but before I get into that, I wanted to reflect how Leaf fans were feeling just one short year ago. A good starting point for that reflection would be Michael Langlois’ “10…

March 30, 2012

Lupul’s always been this good.

A lot has been made about Joffrey Lupul’s “career year” this year and some Leaf fans are even suggesting that now is the time to trade him while his value is at an all-time high.  While it is true that he is on pace for career high in goals and points I would like to suggest that this is not because he is having a ‘career year’ but that he…

March 2, 2012

Who Can the Leafs Beat?

I wanted to take a look at the Leafs record against various other types of teams so I took a variety of stats and looked at their records against the top 10 teams, the middle 10 teams and the bottom 10 teams in that stat.  Here is what I found. Top 10 Middle 10 Bottom 10 Top 10 Middle 10 Bottom 10 GAA 5-9-2 11-10-4 13-9-1 61.5 85.3 96.3 GFA…

March 1, 2012

Burke should have started rebuilding yesterday

I was somewhat disappointed in the lack of Maple Leaf moves made during yesterday’s trade deadline.  Not because Burke didn’t trade for anyone who can help us make the playoffs this year (though I though a trade for Ben Bishop would have been a useful gamble both short and long term) but because he didn’t do more to set up this team for the long term.  From my perspective this…

February 28, 2012

Post Lockout Team Save Percentages

Looking at this chart, I think only Lightning fans can sympathize with the torture that Leaf fans have suffered through with regards to their goaltending, but at least the Lightning have made the playoffs a few times and even had some success. Update:  For interest sake, here are the post lockout shooting percentages and PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage).    

February 22, 2012

State of Brian Burke's Leafs

Brian Burke joined the Leafs in November of 2008.  When he joined the Leafs he insisted he has no interest in a 5 year rebuild and expected he could make the team competitive much sooner.  Let’s evaluate how Burke has done in his tenure as GM of the Maple Leafs. 2007-08 2011-12 GAA 3.08 (27th) 3.03 (27th) SV% 89.3 (29th) 90.1 (24th) GFA 2.74 (11th) 2.98 (6th) PP 17.8% (15th)…

January 18, 2012