Rush Shots and Defensive Zone Play of Maple Leaf Defensemen

The other day over at PensionPlanPuppets.com there was a post by Draglikepull looking at zone exits by Maple Leaf defensemen for the first half of last season. If you haven’t seen it yet, definitely go read it. I wanted to compare the zone exit data to my rush shot data which I have calculated from play by play data as explained here. If we can find good correlations between zone entry/exit data and my rush shot data that would be an excellent finding because the zone entry/exit data need to be manually recorded and is very time consuming. Thankfully this

» Read more

Two Graphs and 665 words that will convince you on Shooting %

Last week Tyler Dellow had a post titled “Two Graphs and 480 Words That Will Convince You On Corsi%” in which, you can say, I was less than convinced (read the comments). This post is my rebuttal that will attempt to convince you on the importance of Sh% in player evaluation. The problem with shooting percentage is that it suffers from small sample size issues. Over small sample sizes it often gets dominated by randomness (I prefer the term randomness to luck) but the question I have always had is, if we remove randomness from the equation, how important of

» Read more

Dion Phaneuf protecting a lead vs playing catch up

After last weeks untimely pinch by Dion Phaneuf in game 4 that led to an overtime goal and the Bruins taking a 3-1 lead in the first round series there was a lot of evaluation of Phaneuf as a defenseman both good and bad. I was intending to write an article to discuss the relative merits of Dion Phaneuf and attempt to get an idea of where he stands among NHL defensemen but in the process of researching that I came across some interesting Phaneuf stats that I think deserve their own post so here it is. My observation was

» Read more

How do high shooting percentage teams perform in playoffs?

With the win over the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night the Leafs have made the playoffs for the first time since the 2003-04 season and they are doing it largely on the backs of an elevated shooting percentage which currently sits at a lofty 10.52% (5v5 only). Here are all the teams with a 5v5 shooting percentage above 9.00% since 2007-08 season and how they have done in the playoffs. Season Team 5v5 Sh% Playoff Result 2012-13 Maple Leafs 10.52 Made playoffs 2012-13 Stars 10.04 Fighting for playoff spot (10th) 2011-12 Lightning 9.73 Missed Playoffs 2009-10 Capitals 10.39 Lost in

» Read more

Tyler Bozak comparables…

There has been a fair bit of talk recently about Tyler Bozak and what the Leafs should do with him as he is clearly not suited for his #1C role but is set to be a UFA this summer and if the Leafs intend to keep him he’ll need a new contract.  To get an idea of his worth, I decided to see if I could identify a few comparable players. Let’s start off offensively. The first thing I looked at was primary points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time (primary points = goals + first assists). From last

» Read more

Lupul, one of leagues best scorers, re-signs with Leafs

The Leafs announced today that they have re-signed Joffrey Lupul to a 5 year contract extension at an average salary and cap hit of $5.25M/yr.  Some Leaf fans are a little dismayed at both the value and the term of the deal as many people seem to view Lupul as a second line winger with a defensive liability that should have been traded, not re-signed.  I won’t deny that Lupul is a defensive liability (though wingers generally have less impact on defense than centers or defensemen), but I will dispute the claim that he is a second line winger. Last

» Read more

An even strength offensive comparison of Kadri, Bozak, Connolly and Grabovski

Earlier today I wrote a post about Tim Connolly and his offensive production at even strength. Shortly after posting that I thought a similar article comparing the performances of Bozak, Kadri and Conolly would be an interesting piece since they are sort of competing for roster spots (more so Kadri and Connolly than Bozak though). Of course, in the mean time Connolly has been put on waivers so to some extent he isn’t relevant anymore but I am including him for interest sake. Here is a look at their individual offensive performances for the last 2 seasons for Bozak and Kadri and

» Read more

State of the Maple Leafs post Brian Burke

The news that shocked the hockey world yesterday had nothing to do with the CBA or Bettman or Fehr but rather that the Maple Leafs ownership group decided to make a strangely timed move to remove Brian Burke from his President and General Manager position of the Maple Leafs.  I think it is only fair to take a look back at the Burke years and evaluate where the Leafs are after his 4 years at the helm.  Let’s look at the Leafs position by position starting with the good and heading downhill from there. Defense Burke made some mistakes on

» Read more

A Maple Leaf Fan Dreaming of UFA Season

I generally have had little expectations/hope that Burke can dramatically rebuild this team into a serious playoff contender this season because of the large contracts that nobody wants on the roster, but after some thinking, I think there is way he can do it.  This is all pure speculation and hope, but don’t we all like to do that from time to time?  And as Maple Leaf fans, hope is pretty much all we have right now. When Burke traded for James van Riemsdyk a week ago he indicated that he expects to see him playing the wing, and in

» Read more

Should Leafs give up on Armstrong?

Over at LeafNation.com, Cam Charron did a corsi-based analysis of Colby Armstrong and came up with mixed conclusions regarding his performance over the past several seasons. So, causes? What caused a player with pretty good possession statistics in Atlanta to completely fall off the map in the last two seasons? System? Trust? Role? A flaw in advanced statistics when players move teams? Or was it just all the injuries that made it a lot tougher on Colby than we think? I don’t know what the answers to those questions are, but instead of trying to answer then I thought I

» Read more
1 2 3 6