The last few days I have been looking at the percentage of a teams ice time for a given situation that a particular player is on the ice for.  So for instance, what percentage of the Leafs 5v5 even strength ice time was Joffrey Lupul on the ice in games in which Joffrey Lupul played. When I write a new program to calculate these numbers I need to to some testing to make sure the results are correct.  The first test is always the standard sniff test.  When the program runs I look at the output and ask myself “does the output make sense?”. When I first looked at the output the other day one of the numbers surprised me so much that I had to do some double checking to make sure it made sense. That number was the percentage of his teams power play ice time that Ilya Kovalchuk was on the ice for. That number was 87.25%.

That’s insane I thought so off to NHL.com to check and see if it could be at all possible. I first checked and noticed that the Devils had 439:59 minutes of PP ice time last year, including 420:36 minutes of 5v4 ice time. Next I checked out much PP ice time Kovalchuk had last year and see that he had 379:08 minutes of PP time. I do not know his exact 5v4 PP ice time numbers but 379:08 is about 86% of 439:59 so my calculation of Kovalchuk being on the ice for 87.25% of his teams PP ice time is perfectly within reason.

To me this seems like a crazy high number.  It means for every 2 minute penalty Kovalchuk is on the ice for 1:44 of it. That just makes me say “WOW!” but Kovalchuk is not alone in getting big PP minutes.  Here are some other players who have played in >70% of his teams 5v5 PP minutes (in games he played in) over the past 5 seasons.

 Player 5v4 TOI% Ilya Kovalchuk 87.25% Alex Ovechkin 83.08% Mike Green 76.86% Mark Streit 75.35% Sergei Gonchar 74.76% Evgeni Malkin 73.83% Sidney Crosby 73.01% Dan Boyle 72.78%

I knew some players played a lot of PP ice time, but that still astonishes me. Oh, and for the record, in addition to being on the ice for 87.25% of his teams 5v4 PP ice time, Kovalchuk was on the ice for 89.66% of his teams 5v4 PP goals.

On the other end of things, over the last 5 years Willie Mitchell has played a whopping 59.2% of his teams 4v5 PK ice time which is might actually be more impressive considering how much more demanding playing on the PK is.

The Leafs, Hurricanes and Oilers are the only teams in definitive selling mode as we approach the Olympic break and subsequent trade deadline and with the way things are going there may not be all that many other sellers out there. So for now, let’s stick with these three teams and Ilya Kovalchuk and make some predictions on whether the following players will be traded and what kind of return they could garner. My predictions will be in the comments.

Atlanta Thrashers
Ilya Kovalchuk

Toronto Maple Leafs
Tomas Kaberle – one more year at \$4.25M cap hit and salary
Alexei Ponikarovsky
Matt Stajan
Niklas Hagman – 2 more years at \$3M cap hit and salary
Lee Stempniak
Jamal Mayers
Garnett Exelby
Wayne Primeau
Vesa Toskala
Jason Blake – 2 more years at \$4M cap hit, \$3M actual salary
Jeff Finger – 2 more years at \$3.5M cap hit and salary

Carolina Hurricanes
Ray Whitney
Matt Cullen
Stephane Yelle
Joe Corbo
Aaron Ward
Niclas Wallin
Manny Legace

Edmonton Oilers
Sheldon Souray – 2 more years at \$5.4M cap hit, \$4.5M actual salary
Steve Staios – 1 more year at \$2.7M cap hit, \$2.2M actual salary
Shawn Horcoff – 5 more years at \$5.5M cap hit, 6.5M,6.5M,6.0M,4.0M,3.0M actual salary
Ethan Moreau – 1 more year at \$2.0M cap hit, 1.75M actual salary
Fernando Pisani
Robert Nilsson – Another year at \$2M cap hit, \$2.5M actual salary.
Lubomir Visnovsky – Three more years at \$5.6M cap hit, \$6.0M, \$5.0M, \$3.0M actual salary.