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Jan 312012

Just wanted to let you know that I have finally updated to include 2011-12 data though I have not yet included multi-year data that includes 2011-12.

I have also included in this updated zone start adjusted data which adjusts for zone starts by not considering the 10 seconds following an offensive/defensive zone faceoff.  I have included both 5v5 and 5v5 zone start adjusted data and the 5v5 close, 5v5 tied, 5v5 up 1, 5v5 up 2+, 5v5 down 1 and 5v5 down 2 data are zone start adjusted.  It doesn’t make any sense to zone start adjust PP and PK so the 5v4 and 4v5 data is not zone start adjusted.

As always, if you have any issues or questions with anything at let me know.

As an interesting aside on zone starts, I have noticed that zone starts affect shots/fenwick/corsi somewhat significantly but do not affect goal data much.  I thought this was strange at first but then the explanation became clear when I looked at shooting percentages.

Situation SH%
All 5v5 7.91%
ZS Adjusted 5v5 8.89%
10 seconds after Ozone faceoff 3.04%

Shots within 10 seconds of a faceoff don’t go in nearly as frequently as shots at any other time.  The reason for this is probably that the majority of these shots likely come from the point after an offensive faceoff win.  Also, the goalie is perfectly set and ready for the shot and the defending team has their players in optimal defending positions and are usually fully rested.

So, what does this mean?  It means you can actually probably pretty much ignore zone starts if you are looking at goal data.  Zone starts have very little influence on the rate at which goals are scored.