Dion Phaneuf protecting a lead vs playing catch up

After last weeks untimely pinch by Dion Phaneuf in game 4 that led to an overtime goal and the Bruins taking a 3-1 lead in the first round series there was a lot of evaluation of Phaneuf as a defenseman both good and bad. I was intending to write an article to discuss the relative merits of Dion Phaneuf and attempt to get an idea of where he stands among NHL defensemen but in the process of researching that I came across some interesting Phaneuf stats that I think deserve their own post so here it is. My observation was

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Face offs and zone starts, is one more important than the other?

I brought this issue up on twitter today because it got me thinking. Many hockey analytics dismiss face off winning % as a skill that has much value but many of the same people also claim that zone starts can have a significant impact on a players statistics. I haven’t really delved into the statistics to investigate this, but here is what I am wondering.  Consider the following two players: Player 1: Team wins 50% of face offs when he is on the ice and he starts in the offensive zone 55% of the time. Player 2: Team wins 55%

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Further investigation into impact of zone starts

Tyler Dellow has a post at mc79hockey.com looking at zone starts and defensemen and if you read it the clear conclusion is that zone starts seem to matter quite a bit. In the third chart you can see that defensemen who get the most extreme defensive zone starts have an average corsi% of 44.7% while the average corsi% for defensemen with the most extreme offensive zone starts is 53.3%. This would seem to indicate that for defensemen zone starts can impact your corsi% anywhere from -5.3% to +3.3%. This is far more significant than I have estimated myself using a different methodology so

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Who are drags on the Maple Leafs possession game

Even though I am a proponent of shot quality and the idea that the percentages matter (shooting and save percentage) puck control and possession are still an important part of the game and the Maple Leafs are dreadful at it. One of the better easily available metrics for measuring possession is fenwick percentage (FF%) which is a measure of the percentage shot attempts (shots + shots that missed the net) that your team took. So a FF% of 52% would mean your team took 52% of the shots while the opposing team took 48% of the shots. During 5v5 situations

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Tyler Bozak by the numbers

If you follow me on twitter you know I am not a fan of Tyler Bozak and I have written about him in the past. As a Leaf fan I want to keep writing about his poor play because I really do not want to see him re-signed in Toronto. He isn’t a good player and simple does not deserve it, especially if he is going to be making upwards of $4M/yr on a 4+ year long contract.  Let’s take a look at how he ranks in a variety of categories over the previous 3 seasons combined as well as

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Yet another usage statistic

Even though I think the idea of ‘usage’ and ‘tough minutes’ is a vastly over stated factor in an individual players statistics they are interesting to look at as it gives us an indication of how a coach views the player. So for all the usage fans, here is another usage statistic which I will call the Leading-Trailing Index, or LT Index for short. LT Index = TOI% when leading / TOI% when trailing where TOI% is the percentage of the teams overall ice time (in games that the player played in) that the player is on the ice (so a

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Home vs Road QoC

Now that I have added home and road stats to stats.hockeyanalysis.com I can take a look at how quality of competition differs when the team is at home vs when they are on the road. In theory because the home team has last change they should be able to dictate the match ups better and thus should be able to drive QoC a bit better. Let’s take a look at the top 10 defensemen in HARO QoC last season at home and on the road (defensemen with 400 5v5 home/road minutes were considered). Player Name Home HARO QOC Player Name

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More stats added to stats.hockeyanalysis

Stats.hockeyanalysis.com has just gotten even better! Several people have asked why I have zone start adjusted stats for team stats and it is a good question. The answer to that is that it was just easier from a programming point of view to have the same ‘situations’ for both the player level and the team level and since I was already calculating, for example, 5v5close zone start adjusted data for players it was east to add 5v5close zone start adjusted data for teams. Since it makes sense to have non-zone start adjusted data for teams it was on my todo list

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Tips for using Hockey Fancy Stats

I often get asked questions about hockey analytics, hockey fancy stats, how to use them, what they mean, etc. and there are plenty of good places to find definitions of various hockey stats but sometimes what is more important than a definition is some guidelines on how to use them. So, with that said, here are several tips that I have for people using advanced hockey stats. Don’t over value Quality of Competition I don’t know how often I’ll point out one players poor stats or another players good stats and immediately get the response “Yeah, but he always plays

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Regular Season Team Stats and Playoff Success

Yesterday HabsEyesOnThePrize.com had a post on the importance of fenwick come playoff time over the past 5 seasons. It is definitely worth a look so go check it out. In the post they look at FF% in 5v5close situations and see how well it translates into post season success. I wanted to take this a step further and take a look at PDO and GF% in 5v5close situations to see of they translate into post season success as well.  Here is what I found: Group N Avg Playoff Avg Cup Winners Lost Cup Finals Lost Third Round Lost Second Round Lost

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