More stats than you'd ever want (I hope)…

I have just updated my stats site (stats.hockeyanalysis.com) to include a number of new features.  The added features are: 1.  I have added a new situation – 5v5close.  5v5close is when the game is tied or within 1 goal in the first and second period or tied in the third period.  This is what I would call normal play where teams are more or less (depending on talent or game play/coaching style) equally interested in  playing offense or defense.  When teams get a larger lead or lead late in the game teams adjust their style of play to either protect

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Some Names for Gabe

An interesting statistical debate sprung up today started by Tom Benjamin who wrote about his skepticism of the Corsi statistic.  In it Tom comments on the fact that Ryan Kesler and Ryan Clowe ranked so highly in corsi in response to Greg Ballentine’s posts at The Puck Stops Here. Greg’s examples, it seems to me, make a good case against the Corsi statistic. First, both the Kesler and Clowe stories tell us how much influence context has – neither Kesler nor Clowe could have done it playing on a different team or even playing in a different role on the

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Brendan Morrison and the failure of Corsi

Last night after news came out that Brendan Morrison had re-signed with the Calgary Flames, Kent Wilson tweeted the following: Morrison back in Calgary. Check out his corsi tied rating fellow stats nerds: http://bit.ly/q1ywUj The link is to the Calgary Flames 5v5 game tied corsi ratings which show Morrison had a 0.452 corsi rating (Corsi For %) which was dead last on the Flames.  The problem with jumping to the conclusion that Morrison is bad is two fold: 1.  Corsi generally speaking isn’t good at evaluating players. 2.  One year of 5v5 game tied data is not enough to evaluate

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How I Evaluate Players (and Why)

Over the past couple of weeks I have had several comment discussions regarding some of my recent posts on player evaluation and Norris and Hart trophy candidates which centered around which is a better method for evaluating players:  corsi vs goal based evaluation.  A lot of people, maybe the majority of those within the advanced hockey stat community, seem to prefer corsi based analysis while I prefer goal based analysis and I hope to explain why with this post.  I have explained much of this previously but hopefully this post will put it all into one simple easy to understand

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Persistence and Predictability

There seems to be some confusion, or lack of clarity, about my post on corsi vs shooting percentage vs shooting rate the other day so let me clear it up in as straight forward a way as I can. “Hawerchuk” over at BehindTheNetHockey.com writes the following: “I’m not totally sure what he’s getting at. People use Fenwick because it’s persistent, and PDO because it’s not. Over the course of a single season, observed shooting and save percentage drive results, but they are not persistent.” Dirk Hoag over at OnTheForecheck.com writes: “Here’s an example of when NOT to use correlation as

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Goal Rates better than Corsi/Fenwick in Player Evaluation

The general consensus among advanced hockey statistic analyzers and is that corsi/fenwick stats are the best statistic for measuring player and team talent levels.  For those of you who are not aware of corsi and fenwick let me give you a quick definition.  Corsi numbers are the number of shots directed at the goal and include shots, missed shots and blocked shots.  Fenwick numbers are the same except it does not included blocked shots (just shots and missed shots).  I generally look at fenwick and will do that here but fenwick and corsi are very highly correlated to the results

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Introducing New Stats Site

I have been pretty quiet here recently not because of a lack of things I want to write about but because I needed to get my stats site up and running first so I can reference it in my writings.  Plus, getting my stats site up has been on my todo list for a real long time.  There will be a lot more stats to come including my with/against on ice pairing stats which I had up a season or two ago and many of you found interesting as well as team stats but for now let me explain what

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Scoring Goals: Shot Generation or Shooting Percentage?

There are two things that must occur to score a goal.  The first way is to get an opportunity to score and the second is to capitalize on that opportunity to score.  There are a number of statistics that we can use as a proxy for opportunity to score but one of the most common is Fenwick numbers which are shots + missed shots (some call this Corsi but I define Corsi as shots + missed shots + blocked shots).  We can then define the ability to cash in on opportunities as shooting percentage, or in this case fenwick shooting

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When Corsi Analysis Goes Wrong…

Behind the Net Blog recently used even strength when game is tied Corsi analysis to take a look at the divisional imbalance since the lockout and came up with an interesting conclusion. The NW division is slightly better than the SE division against all shared opponents.  But SE division teams outshot NW teams in head-to-head games.  The difference between the two divisions is negligible, though the NW’s stronger showing against the pacific and central suggests that it’s just a little bit better than the SE. What that essentially implies is that since the lockout the northwest division is only marginally

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My thoughts on Corsi Numbers

I am planning that over the course of the summer and into next season I will get back into analyzing hockey statistics more in depth again.  Over the past couple of seasons Corsi numbers have become much more prevalent so I thought I would start off by discussing what they are and my thoughts on them. Corsi numbers were originally created by former NHL goalie and now Buffalo Sabre goalie coach Jim Corsi.  David Staples recently had a good interview with Corsi which goes into his thought process behind developing Corsi numbers.  The interview is definitely worth a read but let me

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