Tips for using Hockey Fancy Stats

I often get asked questions about hockey analytics, hockey fancy stats, how to use them, what they mean, etc. and there are plenty of good places to find definitions of various hockey stats but sometimes what is more important than a definition is some guidelines on how to use them. So, with that said, here are several tips that I have for people using advanced hockey stats. Don’t over value…

April 5, 2013

Taking a look at QoC metrics on

I generally think that the majority of people give too much importance to quality of competition (QoC) and its impact on a players statistics but if we are going to use QoC metrics let’s at least try and use the best ones available. In this post I will take a look at some QoC metrics that are available on and explain why they might be better than those typically…

March 20, 2013

The declining value of fenwick/corsi with increased sample size

The last several days I have been playing around a fair bit with team data and analyzing various metrics for their usefulness in predicting future outcomes and I have come across some interesting observations. Specifically, with more years of data, fenwick becomes significantly less important/valuable while goals and the percentages become more important/valuable. Let me explain. Let’s first look at the year over year correlations in the various stats themselves….

February 27, 2013

A Corsi vs Goal based evaluation of Francois Beauchemin

Over the past few years I have had a few discussions with other Leaf fans about the relative merits of Francois Beauchemin. Many Leaf fans argue that he was a good 2-way defenseman who can play tough minutes and is the kind of defenseman the Leafs are still in need of. I on the other hand have never had quite as optimistic view of Beauchemin and I don’t think he…

February 21, 2013

Using goalies to estimate zone start impact on corsi

Eric T. over at NHL Numbers had a post last week summarizing the current state of our statistical knowledge with respect to accounting for zone start differences.  If you haven’t read it definitely go read it because it is not only a good read but because it concludes that how the majority of people have been doing is is wrong. Overall, no two estimates are in direct agreement, but the…

November 8, 2012

Eight Reasons I Don’t Like Fenwick/Corsi in Player Analysis

I have had a lot of battles with the pro-corsi crowd with regards to the merits of using Corsi as a player evaluation tool.  I still get people dismissing my goal based analysis (which seems really strange since goals are what matters in hockey) so I figured I should summarize my position in one easy to understand post.  So, with that, here are 10 significant reasons why I don’t like…

June 26, 2012

On-ice shooting percentage is sustainable…

Prior to the season Gabe Desjardins and I had a conversation over at where I predicted several players would combine for a 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage above 10.0% while league average is just shy of 8.0%.  I documented this in a post prior to the season.  In short, I predicted the following: Crosby, Gaborik, Ryan, St. Louis, H. Sedin, Toews, Heatley, Tanguay, Datsyuk, and Nathan Horton will have a combined on-ice…

April 19, 2012

Corsi vs Shooting %: Gomez vs Cammalleri

I have been having a discussion as to whether shot quality exists over at Pension Plan Puppets and more precisely whether certain players can drive a teams shooting percentage while they are on the ice.  As part of the discussion I brought up the on-ice shooting percentage differences between Scott Gomez and Michael Cammalleri and decided that it would be useful to present that comparison as a post here. First off,…

January 28, 2012

Can a Player Influence his Teammates Shooting Percentage?

Gabe Desjardins of Arctic Ice Hockey asks the question about whether a player can influence his teammates shooting percentage.  To answer this question he took a look at the Pittsburgh Penguins shooting percentages with and without Mario Lemieux.  The conclusion: I’d posit that Lemieux’s playmaking contribution is about as large as we’re going to consistently find – something on the order of 7-8% – and we can use it to…

December 9, 2011

Showing Shooting Percentage Matters (Yet Again)

I hate to keep beating the “Shooting Percentage Matters” drum but it really dumbfounds me why so many people choose to ignore it, or believe it is only a small part of the game and not worth considering and instead focus their attention on corsi/fenwick, and corsi/fenwick derived stats as their primary evaluation too. It dumbfounds me that people don’t think players have an ability to control shooting percentage yet…

November 22, 2011