Roles and Stats Part I: Background and Methodology

This is the first of what will be a series of posts on the impact of roles on stats with a particular interest in the impact of roles on shooting and save percentages. Background My involvement in hockey analytics has been somewhat outside of the main stream. I am a firm believer in shot quality and the ability of players to influence on-ice shooting and save percentages while hockey analytics has generally trended (almost exclusively) towards puck possession metrics like Corsi. As a result, over the years I have fought many battles with many people on shot quality starting first with

» Read more

What are Rel and RelTM stats?

This came up in a twitter conversation today and since I will be referencing both of these as part of my RIT Hockey Analytics Conference talk it might be a good idea to re-introduce them to anyone who are not familiar with them. At their core, Rel and RelTM stats both attempt to account for the quality of teammates a player plays with. The problem with Corsi%, as Paul Bissonette points out, is that it is heavily driven by the players one plays with. Ultimately, teams don’t draft based on Corsi or possession numbers. You draft a player because you’ve

» Read more

Relative importance of Corsi and the other 42%

Today apparently there was some discussion about the Avalanche and their non-interest in hockey analytics. In that discussion Corey Pronman wrote the following tweet: @ThomasDrance @adater point is Corsi explains 35% of wins. Luck explains about 40%. If something’s better than Corsi, not much room left. — Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) September 24, 2014   I have seen the above logic from time to time. I think it dates back to something Gabe Desjardins wrote many years ago. I find the logic very odd though. Let me explain. Let’s assume that the numbers are true. According to my math, that leaves

» Read more

Team Zone Entry Data and Predicting Standings

I am sure many of you are aware that Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) has been working on tracking zone entries and exits for every game from last season. A week and a half ago Corey was nice enough to send me the data for every team for all the games he had tracked so far (I’d estimate approximately 60% of the season) and the past few days I have been looking at it. So, ultimately everything you read from here on is thanks to the time and effort Corey has put in tracking this data. As I have alluded to on

» Read more

Bryce Salvador and looking beyond corsi

The rumour is out there that Sunny Mehta has been hired as Director of Hockey Analytics of the New Jersey Devils (if true, a big congrats to Sunny). This sparked some twitter discussion about the Devils and analytics and Devils defensemen including Bryce Salvador. @hockeyanalysis @ToddCordell I don’t know a ton about him apart from that he was the whipping boy of smart/analytically inclined NJ fans. — Fear The Fin (@fearthefin) June 12, 2014 @fearthefin @hockeyanalysis @ToddCordell to be fair, Salvador was the whipping boy to non-stat people this year as well — dsarch (@dsarch) June 12, 2014 I have

» Read more

Being honest about “possession” stats as a predictive tool

I often feel that I am the sole defender of goal based hockey analyitics in a world dominated by shot attempt (corsi) based analytics. In recent weeks I have often heard the pro-corsi crowd cite example after example of where corsi-based analytics “got it right” or “predicted something fairly well”. While it is always good to be able to cite examples where you got things right a fair an honest evaluation looks at the complete picture, not just the good outcomes. Otherwise it is analytics by anecdotes which is an oxymoron if there every was one. For example, Kent Wilson

» Read more

Two Graphs and 665 words that will convince you on Shooting %

Last week Tyler Dellow had a post titled “Two Graphs and 480 Words That Will Convince You On Corsi%” in which, you can say, I was less than convinced (read the comments). This post is my rebuttal that will attempt to convince you on the importance of Sh% in player evaluation. The problem with shooting percentage is that it suffers from small sample size issues. Over small sample sizes it often gets dominated by randomness (I prefer the term randomness to luck) but the question I have always had is, if we remove randomness from the equation, how important of

» Read more

Critiquing plus/minus and corsi fairly

There is a recently posted article on BroadStreetHockey.com discussing overused and overrated statistics. The first statistic on that list is Plus/Minus. Plus/minus has its flaws and gets wildly misused at times but it doesn’t mean it is a useless statistics if used correctly so I want to defend it a little but also put it in the same context as corsi. The rational given in the BroadStreetHockey.com article for plus/minus being a bad statisitcs is that the top of the plus/minus listing is dominated by a few teams. They list the top 10 players in +/- this season and conclude:

» Read more

How are HockeyAnalysis ratings (HARO, HARD, HART) calculated?

Every now and again someone asks me how I calculate HARO, HARD and HART ratings that you can find on stats.hockeyanalysis.com and it is at that point I realize that I don’t have an up to date description of how they are calculated so today I endeavor to write one. First, let me define HARO, HARD and HART. HARO – Hockey Analysis Rating Offense HARD – Hockey Analysis Rating Defense HART – Hockey Analysis Rating Total So my goal when creating then was to create an offensive defensive and overall total rating for each and every player. Now, here is a step by step guide

» Read more

Tips for using Hockey Fancy Stats

I often get asked questions about hockey analytics, hockey fancy stats, how to use them, what they mean, etc. and there are plenty of good places to find definitions of various hockey stats but sometimes what is more important than a definition is some guidelines on how to use them. So, with that said, here are several tips that I have for people using advanced hockey stats. Don’t over value Quality of Competition I don’t know how often I’ll point out one players poor stats or another players good stats and immediately get the response “Yeah, but he always plays

» Read more
1 2 3