Jul 122011
 

Over the past couple of weeks I have had several comment discussions regarding some of my recent posts on player evaluation and Norris and Hart trophy candidates which centered around which is a better method for evaluating players:  corsi vs goal based evaluation.  A lot of people, maybe the majority of those within the advanced hockey stat community, seem to prefer corsi based analysis while I prefer goal based analysis and I hope to explain why with this post.  I have explained much of this previously but hopefully this post will put it all into one simple easy to understand package.

There are two main objectives for a player when the coach puts him on the ice:  1.  Help his team score a goal.  2.  Help his team stop the opposing team from scoring a goal.  Depending on the situation and the player the coach may prioritize one of those over the other.  For example, a defensive player may be tasked primarily with shutting down an opposing teams offensive players and scoring a goal is really a very minor objective.  Late in a game when a team is down a goal the opposite is true and the primary objective, if not sole objective, is to score a goal.

I think we can all agree on the previous paragraph.  Goals are what matter in hockey so right there we have the #1 reason why goals should be used in player evaluation.  The problem is, goals are a relatively rare event and thus ‘luck’ can have a serious impact on our player analysis results due to the small sample size that goals provide.  This brought on the concept of corsi which is nothing more than shot attempts and is used as a proxy for scoring chances.  The benefit of corsi is that shot attempts occur about 10 times often as goals which gives us a larger sample size to evaluate players.

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Jun 082011
 

Lance Hornby has an article this morning discussing a report from the New York Daily News that the Leafs are looking to make a trade for the rights to Brad Richards. Two problems with this:

1.  Just last week Brian Burke said “it wasn’t something we are in the process of looking at” (right at end of interview)

2.  Brad Richards agent Pat Morris over the weekend was quoted in the Toronto Star as saying Richards was not willing to waive his no trade clause and will almost certainly wait out June and become a UFA July 1st.

The second point is interesting because in the Lance Hornby article Mr. Hornby wrote:

If Dallas is trying to maximize compensation for Richards’ rights, he must first agree to waive his no-trade clause, a move that agent Pat Morris told the Daily News the Stars have not yet requested. Richards is also awaiting developments with the Stars and their ownership change.

The original New York Daily News article that Mr. Hornby referred two said Pat Morris hadn’t been asked to waive his no trade clause:

“The Stars have not asked Brad to waive his no-trade clause, and at this point in time, he has no intention of doing so,” agent Pat Morris told the Daily News Monday night when informed that a source had said a move to the Toronto Maple Leafs could be completed by the end of this week. “We’re still pointing toward July 1.”

Now it is a shame that Mr. Hornby chose to leave out the important fact that Morris indicated that Richards has no intention to waive his no trade clause at this time but the other interesting point is Morris being quoted as saying that the Stars have not asked Richards to waive his no trade clause.  This contradicts the Toronto Star article over the weekend where Pat Morris said the Stars asked Richards to waive the no trade clause and the request was denied:

“We’ve been asked by Dallas to (waive the no-trade). We’ve analyzed it and, to date, we’re not in the position to give any clearance on a trade,” said Richards’ agent Pat Morris on Saturday.

“In all likelihood, as we go through the remainder of June, we will not be doing so. It isn’t likely that Brad’s mind will change.”

So what is the real story?  Has Brad Richards been asked to waive his no trade clause and chose not to?  Who knows.