Jul 232014
 

Tyler Dellow has an interesting post on differences between the Kings and Leafs offensive production. He comes at the problem from a slightly different angle than I have explored in my rush shot series so definitely go give it a read. These two paragraphs discuss a theory of Dellow’s that is interesting.

That’s the sort of thing that can affect a team’s shooting percentage. To take it to an extreme, teams shot 6.2% in the ten seconds after an OZ faceoff win this year; the league average shooting percentage at 5v5 is more like 8%. Of course, when you win an offensive zone draw, you start with the puck but the other team has five guys back and in front of you.

I wonder whether there isn’t something like that going on here that explains LA’s persistent struggles with shooting percentage (as well as those of New Jersey, another team that piles up Corsi but can’t score – solving this problem is one of the burning questions in hockey analytics at the moment). It’s a theory, but one that seems to fit with what Eric’s suggested about how LA generates the bulk of their extra shots. It’s hard for me to explain the Leafs scoring so many more goals in the first 11 seconds after a puck has been carried in, particularly given that I suspect that LA, by virtue of their possession edge, probably enjoyed many more carries into the offensive zone overall.

Earlier today I posted some team rush statistics for the past 7 and past 3 seasons. Let’s look in a little more detail how the Leafs, Kings and Devils performed over the past 3 seasons.

Team RushGF RushSF OtherGF OtherSF RushSh% OtherSh% Rush%
New Jersey 45 540 103 1675 8.33% 6.15% 24.4%
Toronto 66 523 128 1675 12.62% 7.64% 23.8%
Los Angeles 53 609 112 1978 8.70% 5.66% 23.5%

The Leafs scored the most goals on the rush despite the fewest rush shots due to a vastly better shooting percentage (nearly 50% better than the Devils and Kings) on the rush. They do not generate more shots on the rush, but do seem to generate higher quality shots.

The Kings generate by far the most shots in non-rush situations but have the poorest shooting percentage and thus do not score a ton of goals. The Devils don’t generate many non-rush shots and don’t have a great non-rush shooting percentage either and thus posted the fewest goals. The Leafs have had the same number of shots as the Devils but a significantly higher shooting percentage than the Devils and thus scored significantly more non-rush goals.

The Leafs scored 34% of their goals on the rush compared to 32% for the Kings and 30% for the Devils.

Are the Leafs a good rush team? Well, only Boston has scored more 5v5 road rush goals than the Leafs so probably yes but it is mostly because of finishing talent, not shot generating talent. They are 4th last in 5v5 road rush shots.

The Ducks have very similar offense to the Leafs. They don’t get many rush shots but post a really high rush shooting percentage. Anaheim generate a few more non-rush shots than the Leafs but they are very similar offense.

The Kings are a slightly better rush team than the Devils but neither are good and both are weak shooting percentage teams regardless of whether it is a rush or non-rush shot. The Kings make up for this though by generating a lot of shots from offensive zone play where as the Devil’s don’t.

 

Oct 012013
 

It appears that Phil Kessel’s is on the verge of signing an 8 year, $8M/yr contract with the Leafs so this is a good time to compare this contract to a couple other elite wingers who have signed contracts in the past year or so. Corey Perry and Zach Parise. I have also chosen to include Rick Nash in the discussion because he is a comparable goal scoring winger with a comparable salary even though he signed his contract several years ago. Before we get into contracts though, let’s take a look at production levels by age.

KesselGoalsPerGameByAge

 

In terms of goal production, both Nash and Kessel got their careers started earlier than Perry or Parise and both had their best goal production years earlier int heir careers. Kessel of course had his best goal production year playing a significant amount of time with one of the best playmakers in the league at the time, Marc Savard. He has yet to match that level in Toronto but of course he is playing with Tyler Bozak in Toronto. Aside from Perry’s career year at age 25 he has generally been at or below the production level of the other three at the same age while Nash has generally been the more productive player. Note that I have removed Parise’s Age 25 season as he missed the majority of the year to injury. Nash’s age 20 season was lost due to a lockout. Ages are based on draft year (first season after draft year is age 18)

 

KesselPointsPerGameByAge

Not really a lot different in the points/game chart which kind of makes sense because all these players are wingers and more goal scorers than play makers. Parise once again had his peak season at age 23 while Perry again had his at age 25. Nash has maintained a little more consistency fluctuating between 0.8 and 1.0 since his age 21 season though one should remember that Nash’s age 21 season was 2005-06 when goal production was inflated due to obstruction crackdown and far more power plays. Kessel appears to still be on the upswing and he has shown more play making ability with Lupul or van Riemsdyk on the other wing and the absence of a play maker at center.

Age Length Total$
Parise* 27 8 $80M
Perry 27 8 $69M
Kessel 25 8 $64M
Nash 25 8 $62.4M

*Parise’s salary over the first 8 years of his contract.

Parise’s salary is a little wonky as he signed his contract under the old CBA which was a back diving contract in which he earns $94M over the first 10 years and $4M over the final 3. Perry is the easiest to compare with as he is the most recent contract signing while Nash signed several years ago when the salary cap was lower. All things considered Kessel’s contract is at least fairly priced if not a slight bargain.

In conclusion, even though the others may have had higher ‘peak’ seasons (though it is certainly possible, maybe likely, that Kessel hasn’t reached his peak) it is fair to suggest that Kessel is deserving to be considered similarly talented to the other three which makes his $8M/yr salary not only fair but maybe a slight bargain.

 

Apr 052013
 

Yesterday HabsEyesOnThePrize.com had a post on the importance of fenwick come playoff time over the past 5 seasons. It is definitely worth a look so go check it out. In the post they look at FF% in 5v5close situations and see how well it translates into post season success. I wanted to take this a step further and take a look at PDO and GF% in 5v5close situations to see of they translate into post season success as well.  Here is what I found:

Group N Avg Playoff Avg Cup Winners Lost Cup Finals Lost Third Round Lost Second Round Lost First Round Missed Playoffs
GF% > 55 19 2.68 2.83 5 1 2 6 4 1
GF% 50-55 59 1.22 1.64 0 2 6 10 26 15
GF% 45-50 52 0.62 1.78 0 2 2 4 10 34
GF% <45 20 0.00 - 0 0 0 0 0 20
FF% > 53 23 2.35 2.35 3 2 4 5 9 0
FF% 50-53 55 1.15 1.70 2 2 1 10 22 18
FF% 47-50 46 0.52 1.85 0 0 4 3 6 33
FF% <47 26 0.54 2.00 0 1 1 2 3 19
PDO >1010 27 1.63 2.20 2 2 2 6 8 7
PDO 1000-1010 42 1.17 1.75 1 0 5 7 15 14
PDO 990-1000 47 0.91 1.95 2 1 3 4 12 25
PDO <990 34 0.56 1.90 0 2 0 3 5 24

I have grouped GF%, FF% and PDO into four categories each, the very good, the good, the mediocre and the bad and I have looked at how many teams made it to each round of the playoffs from each group. If we say that winning the cup is worth 5 points, getting to the finals is worth 4, getting to the 3rd round is worth 3, getting to the second round is worth 2, and making the playoffs is worth 1, then the Avg column is the average point total for the teams in that grouping.  The Playoff Avg is the average point total for teams that made the playoffs.

As HabsEyesOnThePrize.com found, 5v5close FF% is definitely an important factor in making the playoffs and enjoying success in the playoffs. That said, GF% seems to be slightly more significant. All 5 Stanley Cup winners came from the GF%>55 group while only 3 cup winners came from the FF%>53 group and both Avg and PlayoffAvg are higher in the GF%>55 group than the FF%>53 group. PDO only seems marginally important, though teams that have a very good PDO do have a slightly better chance to go deeper into the playoffs. Generally speaking though, if you are trying to predict a Stanley Cup winner, looking at 5v5close GF% is probably a better metric than looking at 5v5close FF% and certainly better than PDO. Now, considering this is a significantly shorter season than usual, this may not be the case as luck may be a bit more of a factor in GF% than usual but historically this has been the case.

So, who should we look at for playoff success this season?  Well, there are currently 9 teams with a 5v5close GF% > 55.  Those are Anaheim, Boston, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Montreal, Chicago, San Jose, Toronto and Vancouver. No other teams are above 52.3% so that is a list unlikely to get any new additions to it before seasons end though some could certainly fall out of the above 55% list. Now if we also only consider teams that have a 5v5close FF% >50% then Toronto and Anaheim drop off the list leaving you with Boston, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Montreal, Chicago, San Jose and Vancouver as your Stanley Cup favourites, but we all pretty much knew that already didn’t we?

 

Feb 212013
 

Over the past few years I have had a few discussions with other Leaf fans about the relative merits of Francois Beauchemin. Many Leaf fans argue that he was a good 2-way defenseman who can play tough minutes and is the kind of defenseman the Leafs are still in need of. I on the other hand have never had quite as optimistic view of Beauchemin and I don’t think he would make this team any better.

On some level I think a part of the difference in opinion is that many look at his corsi numbers which aren’t too bad but I prefer to look at his goal numbers which have generally not been so good. So, let’s take a look at Beauchemin’s WOWY numbers and see if there is in fact a divergence between Beauchemin’s corsi WOWY numbers and his goal WOWY numbers starting with 2009-11 5v5 WOWY starting with CF% WOWY.

Beauchemin200911CFWOWY

I have included a diagonal line which is kind of a ‘neutral’ line where players perform equally well with and without Beauchemin. Anything to the right/below the line indicates the player played better with Beauchemin than without and anything to the left/above they played worse with Beauchemin. As you can see, the majority of players had a better CF% with Beauchemin than without. Now, let’s take a look at GF% WOWY.

Beauchemin200911GFWOWY

While a handful of players had better GF% with Beauchemin, the majority were a little worse off. There is a clear difference between Beauchemin’s CF% WOWY and his GF% WOWY. What is interesting is this difference can be observed in 2007-08, 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2011-12 (he was injured for much of 2008-09 so his WOWY data is not reliable due to smaller sample size). Looking at his 5-year WOWY charts you get a clear picture that Beauchemin seemingly has a skill for ‘driving play’ but not ‘driving goals’. Let’s dig a little further to see if we can determine what his ‘problem’ by looking at his 2009-11 two year CF20, GF20, CA20 and GA20 WOWY’s.

CF20:

Beauchemin200911CF20WOWY

GF20:

Beauchemin200911GF20WOWY

As you can clearly see, Beauchemin appears to be much better at generating shots and shot attempts than he is at generating goals. The majority of players have a higher corsi for rate when with Beauchemin than when not with Beauchemin but the majority also have a lower goals for rate. What about ‘against’ rates?

CA20:

Beauchemin200911CA20WOWY

GA20:

Beauchemin200911GA20WOWY

For CA20 and GA20 is is better to be to be above/left of the diagional line because unlike GF%/CF%/GF20/CF20 it is better to have a smaller number than a larger number. There doesn’t seem to be quite as much of a difference between CA20 and GA20 as with CF20 and GF20 so the difference between CF% and GF% is driven by the inability to convert shots and shot attempts into goals as opposed to the defensive side of the game. That said, there is no clear evidence that Beauchemin makes his teammates any better defensively.

There are two points I wanted to make with this post.

  1. Leaf fans probably shouldn’t be missing Beauchemin.
  2. For a lot of players a corsi evaluation of that player will give you a reasonable evaluation of that player but there are also many players where a corsi evaluation of that player will not tell the complete story. Some players can consistently see a divergence between their goal stats and their corsi stats and it is important to take that into consideration.

 

Apr 182011
 

By all accounts, Corey Perry had an exceptional season in 2010-11 and this is particularly true down the stretch when he flew by Steven Stamkos for the lead in goals scored and pushed himself into serious contention from the Hart Trophy as the leagues most valuable player.  There is no doubt that Perry’s production level surpassed anything he had previously done in his career, but was he truly more valuable to the Ducks than in previous seasons?  Let’s look at the numbers.

Season GP Goals Assists Points +/- PPG PPA PP Points
2010-11 82 50 48 98 9 14 17 31
2009-10 82 27 49 76 0 6 17 23
2008-09 78 32 40 72 10 10 14 24
2007-08 70 29 25 54 12 11 6 17

Based on the raw stats, he has been better in 2010-11 in terms of goal scoring and fairly consistent in terms of collecting assists but despite his increase in goals and points, his +/- hasn’t increased significantly.

Let’s look a little deeper into Perry’s even strength 5v5 statistics.

Season GF20 GA20 GF% TMGF20 TMGA20 TMGF% OppGF20 OppGA20 OppGF%
2010-11 0.928 0.882 0.513 0.876 0.843 0.510 0.774 0.745 0.509
2009-10 1.047 0.828 0.558 0.694 0.807 0.463 0.776 0.759 0.505
2008-09 1.113 0.754 0.596 0.712 0.775 0.479 0.756 0.751 0.501
2007-08 1.003 0.683 0.595 0.674 0.551 0.550 0.724 0.725 0.500

(source:  http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=2)

For those unfamiliar with my terminology, GF20 is Perry’s goals for by team while on the ice per 20 minutes of ice time, GA20 is the same for goals against and GF% is GF20/(GF20+GA20) and represents what percentage of all goals scored while he was on the ice were scored by his team.  The TM stats are the same but for his team mates when they are not playing with Perry and the Opp stats are the same but for Perry’s opponents when they are not playing against Perry.

Now, the first observation you may make is that Perry’s GF20 was lower in 2010-11 than in any of the previous season so while Perry produced more offense (goals in particular) in 2010-11 individually, the team produced somewhat less when Perry was on the ice.  In other words, Perry’s goal/point production may have come at the cost of his line mates goal/point production.  The same thing is true defensively.  More goals were scored against Perry while Perry was on the ice than in any previous season.

Now, looking at team mate production when his teammates are not on the ice with Perry we find that they produce slightly fewer goals per 20 minutes (0.876 without Perry vs 0.928 with) but also give up slightly fewer goals too (0.843 without Perry, 0.882 with).  What is interesting though is Perry’s line mates this season appear to be better offensive players than in prior seasons as their 2010-11 GF20 was 0.876 vs 0.694 in 2009-10 though they also had a slightly higher GA20 in 2010-11 as well.  So from these numbers it seems that overall Perry played with significantly better offensive players in 2010-11 than in prior years and slightly worse defensive players in 2010-11 than in prior years.

As for quality of opposition, the offensive production of Perry’s opponents in 2010-11 was about the same as in 2009-10 while defensively they were slightly better.

So, in summary we can state that when Perry was on the ice in 5v5 even strength situations the Ducks produced less in 2010-11 than they did in 2009-10 and gave up more goals in 2011-10 than they did in 2009-10.  Furthermore, overall his line mates appear to have been significantly better offensive players in 2010-11 than in 2009-10 and only slightly worse defensive players while his opposition appears to be similarly skilled offensively and marginally less skilled defensively.

So, what does this all mean?  Here are Perry’s offensive and defensive ratings:

Season HARO+ HARD+ HART+
2010-11 1.164 0.852 1.008
2009-10 1.300 0.917 1.109
2008-09 1.391 0.953 1.172
2007-08 1.325 0.979 1.152

With all things considered, despite scoring 50 goals this past season, one could make an argument that 2010-11 was well below his performance during the three previous seasons.  It seems that his improved individual numbers may have come at the cost of his team mates and that made him less valuable to the Ducks overall.

Feb 262009
 

TSN is reporting that the Penguins have found a winger Sidney Crosby by trading defenseman Ryan Whitney to the Ducks for winger Chris Kunitz and prospect LW Eric Tangradi, who was a second round draft pick in 2007.

This trade is most interesting from the Ducks point of view.  The Ducks were able to make this trade largely because of the development of Bobby Ryan who has proven himself to be a top six player.  That made Kunitz expendable.  But even more interesting is the acquisition of Ryan Whitney, a top pairing defenseman, means that it is almost certain that at least one of Chris Pronger or Scott Niedermayer are likely to be traded, as has been rumoured.  This trade could begin the dominos falling.

Update:  Another minor trade has been made as the Canadiens att some defense depth by trading fourth liner Steve Begin to the Dallas Stars for Doug Janik who has played most of the season in the AHL.  Nothing significant here, just some shuffling of depth players.

Sep 182008
 

If the Leafs are serious about rebuilding for the future, the Leafs should acquire Mathieu Schneider from the Anaheim Ducks. Ok, that sounds quite odd considering Schneider is old and expensive and set to be a UFA next summer. But after you read this it will make total sense.

The Anaheim Ducks are desperate to shed salary so they can get under the cap and sign Teemu Selanne. They have some forwards that they could possibly get rid of but non would free up all that much salary. Schneider is the guy they really want to get rid of. A few years ago the New Jersey Devils were desperate to shed salary to get under the cap as well. To do so the Devils traded Malakhov and a first round pick for a couple of fringe players. So, what the Leafs should do is offer Ian White to the Ducks for Schneider and a first round pick. Fletcher doesn’t seem all that interested in White long term, but is more than capable of playing on the third defense pair for the Ducks. The Ducks free up Schneider’s salary and the Leafs get a good pick to use in next summers draft.

But it doesn’t end there. Schneider is still a good defenseman and come trade deadline there will be teams looking for a defenseman with his skills and experience. At that time the Leafs could trade Schneider again for another good draft pick.

In the end the Leafs could end up with a couple of very good draft picks at a cost of Ian White, who may not make the team anyway, and the $4-4.5 million they would have to pay Schneider between now and the trade deadline. But as you know, the Leafs have ample money and ample cap room so that isn’t really an issue if they are truly serious about rebuilding. They are one of the few teams that could make such a move. The Canucks and Kings could probably do this as well but the Canucks seem intent on holding out for Sundin or would prefer a forward and the Kings are Anaheim’s cross city rival so Anaheim may prefer not to deal with them if they didn’t have to. The Leafs, if they were smart, could be Anaheim’s answer to their problem.

Oh, and Burke will be helping the team he will soon be GM of (if you listen to the media) so it works out perfectly.

Sep 172008
 

Brian Burke has become the Toronto hockey media’s favourite pick for the next GM of the Leafs and for the most part he has been heralded by the Toronto media as one of the best GMs in hockey and the kind of GM the Leafs desperately need. But what if Burke was GM of the Leafs. Would Burke get the same recognition?

If hypothetical Leafs GM Burke signed Todd Bertuzzi to a two year $8 million deal, only to buy him out the following off season, would the Toronto media herald Burke as one of the greatest GMs in hockey?

If hypothetical Leafs GM Burke signed Mathieu Schneider to a two year $11.25 million deal and just to put him on waivers the following summer hoping someone would claim him, would the Toronto media herald Burke as one of the greatest GMs in hockey?

Of course not. The deals to Bertuzzi and Schneider are actually far worse than the monetary cost to the team. These deals essentially cost the Ducks team a talented player in Andy McDonald because Burke was forced to trade McDonald to clear salary space. If Burke made such moves while GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs he would be criticized beyond belief. But he isn’t GM of the Leafs so the Toronto hockey media are still in love with him.

If you then factor in that Burke chose to sign Bertuzzi instead of signing a young power forward capable of scoring 25 goals while playing a solid two-way physical game named Dustin Penner and you have to ask yourself, why does everyone think Burke is such a great GM.

If you go back to his Vancouver days he never was able to acquire the goaltender the team desperately needed to seriously challenge for the Stanley Cup and his draft record was mixed at best.

He did win the Stanley Cup in 2007 in large part by his bold move to sign Niedermayer and trade for Pronger but the core of the forward crew was there before Burke arrived.

If Burke were the GM of the Leafs having put Schneider on waivers desperately hoping someone will claim him, my guess is that there would be more than a few in the Toronto media calling for Burke’s firing.

It is always greener on the other side of the fence.