Hockey Analysis

Seven games on the schedule today, three of which I would say have the potential for an upset. Philadelphia is the favourite to win over New Jersey but should Forsberg not be able to play tonight I would say that New Jersey has a solid chance at beating them. And if Columbus is going to beat any team other than the St. Louis Blues then Minnesota might just be that team. Minnesota plays a low scoring defensive style of game which Columbus may be able to compete with. The key will be somehow stopping Gaborik who has 4 points in 2 games since returning from injury. Finally, call me crazy, but I think San Jose has the potential to upset Dallas. How can I say that when San Jose is on a 9 game losing streak and Dallas has won 6 of 7? Well, San Jose has lost 5 1-goal games in a row to some pretty good teams (Phoenix, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver and Detroit) andafter 3 days of rest and time to refocus I think they will come on strong and if Dallas isn’t ready an upset could be in the making.

In the two pick-em games I am going to pick Toronto over Tampa and Phoenix over Anaheim.

Seven games on the schedule tonight and many of them should prove interesting. Philadelphia is in New York to play the Islanders after losing to them 4-2 on home ice on Saturday. They played without Peter Forsberg on Saturday and will do so again today as he recovers from a mild groin strain. Because of this the Islanders have to be given a slight advantage in this game.

Atlanta-Carolina are also playing the second game in a home and home series. Atlanta defeated Carolina 5-2 on Sunday and now seek a home ice win. The computer predictor predicts Carolina as a good favourite to win but I kind of like Atlanta in this game. Atlanta is 7-4-2 in November while Carolina is 7-5-0 but with just 1 win in their last 5 games.

Montreal is in Ottawa tonight to attempt to hand Ottawa just its second defeat in November. Normally I would say don’t bet against a team that is 18-3 on the season but Montreal has a quirky streak of their own. Montreal has won their last 6 games they have played on Tuesday’s. In the psat 3 weeks they have just 3 wins, all on Tuesdays. And when you consider that Ottawa’s only November loss came on a Tuesday you think, maybe, just maybe Montreal has a chance tonight. Of course I should mention that Montreal’s only Tuesday loss of the year was a 4-2 defeat by the Ottawa Senators.

Calgary is in Nashville tongiht in what should be a close, low scoring game. Nashville is the slight favourite but Calgary 10-1-1 in November so I do like their chances of pulling out a win.

It’s a quiet night tonight with just 2 games on the schedule tonight so I thought I would take this opportunity to update everyone on my game prediction success rate. These numbers are just for the computer generated predictions and do not take into account my own thoughts where I disagreed with the computer prediction.

Strong confidence: 55 of 81, 67.9% success rate
Good confidence: 54 of 80, 67.5% success rate
Some confidence: 43 of 73, 58.9% success rate
65 games were too close to call

I am generally pleased with those numbers although I would like to see the Strong confidence success rate a tad higher, preferably into the 70-75% range.

And now for tonights games. The eastern conference game sees Toronto playing Florida. Toronto has had a bit of an up and down season (couple good games, followed by a couple bad, etc.) they have generally played better the past couple weeks. For Florida, well, they have been mostly bad with just one win in November (last friday vs Pittsburgh) and having lost 13 of their last 14 games. Picking Toronto to win this game is a no brainer. The western conference matchup is sure to be a good one as Central division leader Detroit plays Pacific division leader Los Angeles. Los Angeles is considered the slight favourite largely because they are playing at home but honestly, this one could go either way. Both teams are very good. It’s a tough call but I’ll stick with the computer prediction of Los Angeles.

Here are the game predictions for todays games. Vancouver-Colorado is probably the game to get most excited about today as these two teams have a bit of a rivalry. It should be a pretty close game with the potential for quite a few goals as well. It is also the only pick-em game of the day so I’ll be picking the Avalanche to get the win since they are at home and didn’t play last night.

Looks there most of the interesting game were played yesterday as there isn’t a lot to get too excited about today. Toronto-Montreal should be an exciting game to watch. Both teams have struggled a bit recently (Montreal more/longer than Toronto) but when these two teams play it is usually a good game and they have already played 3 one goal games including an overtime game. I’m going to pick Toronto to win this one. In the other pick-em games I’ll take Vancouver over Phoenix and Detroit over San Jose. If you are looking for an upset opportunity, that could be Chicago over Los Angeles. The final game worth pointing out is the battle of the two worst teams in the NHL as Columbus plays St. Louis. Columbus is just horrible while St. Louis has at least shown some good signs with the play of goalie Sanford and that gives them the edge but honstly, these are two pretty bad teams.

Thanks to the American Thanksgiving holiday weekend for giving us a full slate of games today. In total there are 11 games, many of them should be quite interesting. Here are a few worth noting.

Ottawa/NY Islanders – Ottawa will be playing without Redden, Havlat and Chris Neil so if there was a game they could lose, this could be it. It’s an afternoon game too so you never know how players will react to having their regular game day schedule altered. I still think the Senators will win but it would not shock me if this is one they lose.

Toronto/Carolina – This is a battle between two of the better teams in the east and these teams have split the 2 games they have already played against each other. I am sure it will be a close game that could go either way. With Rod Brind’amour and Ray Whitney both doubtful for this game, this is a game that could go different than the prediction below. Plus I am sure the Leafs will want to come out strong after a pretty dismal game Wednesday in Boston. Being a Leaf fan I may be biased but I think this one could go the Leafs way.

Tampa/New Jersey – These two teams I can’t figure out. Tampa has won 5 of 6 games but they seem to struggle against teams they should beat. For example, the one loss in those 6 games was against Washington and Wednesday win over Washington is one they had to battle back from an early 3-0 deficit to win in a shootout. But they beat Philadelphia twice and Carolina once in those 6 games. New Jersey has to be the most inconsistant team this season. Mostly they have looked pretty mediocre but then they will go and have an outstanding game where Brodeur plays well and you start thinking that maybe they are returning to pre-lockout form. But then the next game they look mediocre again. In the end, I have no idea who will win this game but give the home team Tampa a slight advantage.

Florida-Pittsburgh – This is an interesting battle between a team that can’t score goals (Florida) and a team that can’t stop giving up goals (Pittsburgh). And also a team that can score goals (Pittsburgh) and a goalie that is just awesome (Luongo). Again, this is another difficult game to predict. My mathematical prediction gives a slight advantage to Florida but I kind of like the Penguins in this one.

Buffalo-Montreal – This is the only pick-em game of the night. After a couple weeks of poor play the Sabres have played better recently winning 4 of 5 with the loss being an overtime loss. Montreal on the other hand has lossed 4 of 6 defeating only Atlanta and Florida while losing to Pittsburgh, Toronto, New Jersey and Washington. It seems they might be missing Kovalev a fair bit. As a result, I’m picking Buffalo to win this game.

Calgary-Edmonton – I agree with the prediction below that Calgary has to be the slight favourite in this game. I am only hi-lighting this game because these Battle of Alberta games are almost always very entertaining and if you get a chance to watch some of it, definitely do. It should be good.