Kings, Flames, Avalanche and Possession Analytics

The other day I posted the following twitter comment after the Flames defeated the Kings to gain a playoff position while simultaneously eliminating the reigning Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings from the playoffs. In the hockey analytics ledger be sure to add #Flames in playoffs and #Kings out to the “what possession analytics didn’t predict” column. — David Johnson (@hockeyanalysis) April 10, 2015 I posted this comment for two reasons. First because I think if you are being honest about evaluating possession analytics you have to consider the failures on an equal ground as the successes. I am certain

» Read more

Zone starts and impact on players statistics

The other day on twitter I was called out by Sam Ventura who does some great work on war-on-ice.com. Specifically he did not like my article on zone starts that I wrote the other day. The second article is this, which I fundamentally disagree with on so many levels: http://t.co/IVoAOqkxAi — Sam Ventura (@stat_sam) March 18, 2015 First, let’s throw numbers and data out entirely and just focus on the issue at hand, in the context of a hockey game… — Sam Ventura (@stat_sam) March 18, 2015 Does where the faceoff takes place have an affect on how likely each

» Read more

Zone Starts, Corsi, and the Percentages

Matthew Coller has an interesting article on Puck Prospectus about Shea Weber and his poor Relative Corsi. His conclusion was that Weber’s poor Relative Corsi is largely due to his playing time with Paul Gaustad in which he posted a very poor CF% along with having a very heavy defensive zone start. His conclusion was that Weber’s poor Corsi with Gaustad is in a significant way caused by the heavy defensive zone start bias. This is a case of correlation not causation as I outlined in the comment section of that article. I recommend you take the time to read both the article

» Read more

The Coaching-Corsi dilemma

The other day I wrote about Bozak-Corsi dilemma which basically goes as follows: The coaching change in Toronto from Carlyle to Horachek resulted in Tyler Bozak and the rest of the Leafs top line posting dramatically improved Corsi (5v5 tied CF%). Does this mean Bozak et al. suddenly got good or does it mean that Corsi is largely driven by playing style which one can change and thus the value of Corsi in player evaluation is greatly minimized. Today I will look at the rest of the Leafs 5v5 Tied CF% from Carlyle to Horachek as well as three other

» Read more

The Bozak-Corsi Dilemma

(Note: This is a cross post with MapleLeafsHotStove.com. You can find the original article here. I don’t normally cross post but this is relevant to Hockey Analytics as a whole, not mostly to Maple Leaf fans.) A significant portion of modern hockey analytics revolves around Corsi (or SAT% as defined by the NHL), which is really nothing more than looking at which team takes more shot attempts. If you can out shoot your opponent, the theory is that it goes a long way to driving success in terms of out scoring your opponent and ultimately winning games. There is a lot of

» Read more

Thoughts on the new Enhanced Statistics site on NHL.com

I wasn’t actually planning on writing anything formal about the new enhanced hockey stats on NHL.com but this post over at Jewels From The Crown was kind of the last straw. Before getting into that article let me say a few things. Despite the fact that I run a popular hockey stats site I really wanted to see the NHL do a good job on their advanced hockey stats site. I honestly don’t see them as a competitor nor do I really care if they are because I make no money off the site and my interest lies as much in

» Read more

Stat Site Upgrades

Some of these have been announced on twitter but I have recently made some upgrades to stats.hockeyanalysis.com and puckalytics.com. Here is a list of the upgrades. New Situations: Home and Road for 5v5 Tied, 5v5 Close, 5v5 Leading and 5v5 Trailing 4v4 All Situations (all play) All Power play (includes 5v4, 5v3, 4v3) All Short handed (includes 4v5, 3v5, 3v4) Multi-year stats with current season 2013-15 (2yr), 2012-15 (3yr) and 2011-14 (4yr) stats have been added Multi-year stats up to 2007-15 (8yr) will be added in the off season – too much data to update nightly.  WOWY Zone Starts (stats.hockeyanalysis.com

» Read more

The Value of Outliers

Ryan Stimson has been doing some valuable work tracking passes and this morning he posted an interesting analysis of the data he (and others) have collected thus far. It is a very interesting article and definitely worth a read. It is a valuable contribution to shot quality research but the article created some twitter discussion regarding one of the techniques that Ryan used. In particular, when Stimson was looking at the correlation between two variables (i.e. passing ability vs shooting percentage) he noticed that there was often an outlier team and he would subsequently look at the correlation between the two variables while

» Read more

Corsi, Shooting Percentage and Coaching Changes

On the weekend I posted an article looking at the relationship between Corsi and Shooting percentage and suggested that good Corsi teams are often poor Shooting Percentage teams and that there is generally a negative correlation between Corsi and Shooting percentage. This relationship seems to hold for most teams except for the elite teams or the truly bad teams. Yesterday over at MapleLeafsHotStove.com I looked at this relationship just prior to, during, and just after the Randy Carlyle coaching era and it seemed to hold true (to some extent) for the Leafs during that time period. These kind of relationships

» Read more

Possession, Shooting Percentage and Outlier Teams

Shot quality as a talent at the team or player on-ice level has long been a topic of great debate and I outlined some of that debate in an article I wrote earlier in the week. For those who don’t believe that shot quality is a significant factor in performance put a lot of stock in possession metrics such as Fenwick or Corsi. These are shot attempt based metrics and as such ignore shot quality altogether. For those, like myself, who believe shot quality matters (at least for some teams and especially some players) I consider a possession based analysis a (potentially)

» Read more
1 3 4 5 6 7 110