The Coaching-Corsi dilemma

The other day I wrote about Bozak-Corsi dilemma which basically goes as follows: The coaching change in Toronto from Carlyle to Horachek resulted in Tyler Bozak and the rest of the Leafs top line posting dramatically improved Corsi (5v5 tied CF%). Does this mean Bozak et al. suddenly got good or does it mean that Corsi is largely driven by playing style which one can change and thus the value of Corsi in player evaluation is greatly minimized. Today I will look at the rest of the Leafs 5v5 Tied CF% from Carlyle to Horachek as well as three other

» Read more

The Bozak-Corsi Dilemma

(Note: This is a cross post with MapleLeafsHotStove.com. You can find the original article here. I don’t normally cross post but this is relevant to Hockey Analytics as a whole, not mostly to Maple Leaf fans.) A significant portion of modern hockey analytics revolves around Corsi (or SAT% as defined by the NHL), which is really nothing more than looking at which team takes more shot attempts. If you can out shoot your opponent, the theory is that it goes a long way to driving success in terms of out scoring your opponent and ultimately winning games. There is a lot of

» Read more

Thoughts on the new Enhanced Statistics site on NHL.com

I wasn’t actually planning on writing anything formal about the new enhanced hockey stats on NHL.com but this post over at Jewels From The Crown was kind of the last straw. Before getting into that article let me say a few things. Despite the fact that I run a popular hockey stats site I really wanted to see the NHL do a good job on their advanced hockey stats site. I honestly don’t see them as a competitor nor do I really care if they are because I make no money off the site and my interest lies as much in

» Read more

Stat Site Upgrades

Some of these have been announced on twitter but I have recently made some upgrades to stats.hockeyanalysis.com and puckalytics.com. Here is a list of the upgrades. New Situations: Home and Road for 5v5 Tied, 5v5 Close, 5v5 Leading and 5v5 Trailing 4v4 All Situations (all play) All Power play (includes 5v4, 5v3, 4v3) All Short handed (includes 4v5, 3v5, 3v4) Multi-year stats with current season 2013-15 (2yr), 2012-15 (3yr) and 2011-14 (4yr) stats have been added Multi-year stats up to 2007-15 (8yr) will be added in the off season – too much data to update nightly.  WOWY Zone Starts (stats.hockeyanalysis.com

» Read more

The Value of Outliers

Ryan Stimson has been doing some valuable work tracking passes and this morning he posted an interesting analysis of the data he (and others) have collected thus far. It is a very interesting article and definitely worth a read. It is a valuable contribution to shot quality research but the article created some twitter discussion regarding one of the techniques that Ryan used. In particular, when Stimson was looking at the correlation between two variables (i.e. passing ability vs shooting percentage) he noticed that there was often an outlier team and he would subsequently look at the correlation between the two variables while

» Read more

Corsi, Shooting Percentage and Coaching Changes

On the weekend I posted an article looking at the relationship between Corsi and Shooting percentage and suggested that good Corsi teams are often poor Shooting Percentage teams and that there is generally a negative correlation between Corsi and Shooting percentage. This relationship seems to hold for most teams except for the elite teams or the truly bad teams. Yesterday over at MapleLeafsHotStove.com I looked at this relationship just prior to, during, and just after the Randy Carlyle coaching era and it seemed to hold true (to some extent) for the Leafs during that time period. These kind of relationships

» Read more

Possession, Shooting Percentage and Outlier Teams

Shot quality as a talent at the team or player on-ice level has long been a topic of great debate and I outlined some of that debate in an article I wrote earlier in the week. For those who don’t believe that shot quality is a significant factor in performance put a lot of stock in possession metrics such as Fenwick or Corsi. These are shot attempt based metrics and as such ignore shot quality altogether. For those, like myself, who believe shot quality matters (at least for some teams and especially some players) I consider a possession based analysis a (potentially)

» Read more

How important is shot location in shot quality?

Let me start off by first saying that this isn’t going to be a research post as much as it will be a commentary on the past, present and future of shot quality research. The History I have had more than a few battles on shot quality so I feel I have a more than decent understanding on the subject. As outlined in this post by Michael Schuckers there are two aspects of shot quality. These are, the quality of an individual shot and the average shot quality of all shots taken by a team or a player when on

» Read more

2014-15 vs 2013-14 Rush Shots and shooting/save percentages

I have mentioned on twitter how I was looking at rush shots as a percentage of overall shots and how teams have fared compared to last season. Here is how the teams have done from an offensive perspective. Team RushShot% For Diff Sh% Diff NY Rangers 7.24% 2.47% Arizona 6.07% 0.92% San Jose 5.89% -0.01% Edmonton 5.64% -1.23% Buffalo 5.02% 2.70% Washington 3.64% 0.65% Anaheim 3.10% -2.09% Calgary 2.83% -0.33% Pittsburgh 2.71% 0.72% Columbus 2.51% -0.23% New Jersey 2.37% 1.57% Vancouver 2.31% 1.32% Winnipeg 2.21% -1.71% Montreal 1.52% -0.11% Los Angeles 1.43% 1.09% Minnesota 1.21% 1.12% St. Louis 1.20% -1.16%

» Read more

Why zone starts don’t matter much

I have written a number of posts on zone starts and how they don’t generally have a significant impact on a players overall statistics but I constantly run across people that find that difficult to accept. There are still studies being done looking at how long the impact of a zone start has on outcomes (this was based on some of the work of Tyler Dellow). While these are interesting studies, the important thing to understand is that while there is an impact it has relatively little impact on a players overall statistics. Before Tyler Dellow was hired by the Edmonton

» Read more
1 3 4 5 6 7 110