Top 15 NHL goalies

Here is my view of the top 15 goalies in the NHL today.  Although I haven’t presented a hard statistical argument for each goalie I did consult a variety of statistics when compiling the list including some advanced stats and my own player rating system. 1.  Tim Thomas – Even if you account for the fact that Thomas plays behind a great team with maybe the best shutdown defenseman in the league (Chara) his numbers are still incredibly impressive.  Easily the best goalie in the NHL right now. 2.  Pekka Rinne – I am not sure everyone knows how good

» Read more

We Don't Know

I haven’t yet weighed in on the recent deaths of Derek Boogaard and Rick Rypien but with the passing yesterday of Wade Belak I have decided to let my thoughts be heard. First off, it has been a sad summer with the passing of these three players and my sincere condolences go out to their families and friends.  Regardless of the circumstances, any death is a sad and somber event but even more sad and somber when the deaths are sudden and seemingly avoidable. The above should be the number one thought on everybody’s mind today but clearly these three players are

» Read more

Schenn vs Komisarek defensively

A few weeks ago I questioned whether Luke Schenn was really a quality shut down defenseman as some believe and some people too exception to that.  Additionally, now that Lebda has been traded away the favourite defenseman whipping boy of Leaf fans seems to be Mike Komisarek.  Because of this, I decided we should conduct a comparison of the defensive ability of these two players to see if Leaf fans perceptions of these two players matches reality. Schenn Komisarek TOI 864:56 558:53 Goals Against per 20 min. 0.902 0.895 Opposition GF/20min. 0.767 0.757 HARD+ 0.810 0.840 Fenwick Against per 20min.

» Read more

More stats than you'd ever want (I hope)…

I have just updated my stats site (stats.hockeyanalysis.com) to include a number of new features.  The added features are: 1.  I have added a new situation – 5v5close.  5v5close is when the game is tied or within 1 goal in the first and second period or tied in the third period.  This is what I would call normal play where teams are more or less (depending on talent or game play/coaching style) equally interested in  playing offense or defense.  When teams get a larger lead or lead late in the game teams adjust their style of play to either protect

» Read more

What is Shea Weber worth in arbitration?

As we all await the results of Shea Weber’s arbitration hearing we are all speculating the salary that the arbitrator will award Shea Weber.  Speculation is that Shea Weber is asking for $8.5M and the Predators are asking for $4.75M.  Damien Cox believes he is probably going to get awarded $7.5-8M. Dion Phaneuf makes $6.5 million per (all figures U.S.), and Weber is a superior player from the same 2003 NHL draft class. The same goes for Weber as compared to Brent Burns, and Burns signed a five-year, $28.5 million contract (cap hit $5.76 million) with the San Jose Sharks

» Read more

Is Luke Schenn really a top shutdown defenseman?

So I woke up this morning and started reading the usual morning news and blogs and one of the first ones I happened to read was an article at Maple Leafs Hot Stove on the Luke Schenn contract negotiations.  One comment early in the post really caught my attention. While he may not be an offensive machine (I believe there is still some upside there), at 23, he has blossomed into one of the leagues best shutdown defensemen. First off, Schenn is 21 not 23 but what really caught my attention is the assertion that he is one of the

» Read more

Some Names for Gabe

An interesting statistical debate sprung up today started by Tom Benjamin who wrote about his skepticism of the Corsi statistic.  In it Tom comments on the fact that Ryan Kesler and Ryan Clowe ranked so highly in corsi in response to Greg Ballentine’s posts at The Puck Stops Here. Greg’s examples, it seems to me, make a good case against the Corsi statistic. First, both the Kesler and Clowe stories tell us how much influence context has – neither Kesler nor Clowe could have done it playing on a different team or even playing in a different role on the

» Read more

Brendan Morrison and the failure of Corsi

Last night after news came out that Brendan Morrison had re-signed with the Calgary Flames, Kent Wilson tweeted the following: Morrison back in Calgary. Check out his corsi tied rating fellow stats nerds: http://bit.ly/q1ywUj The link is to the Calgary Flames 5v5 game tied corsi ratings which show Morrison had a 0.452 corsi rating (Corsi For %) which was dead last on the Flames.  The problem with jumping to the conclusion that Morrison is bad is two fold: 1.  Corsi generally speaking isn’t good at evaluating players. 2.  One year of 5v5 game tied data is not enough to evaluate

» Read more

Evaluating Tim Connolly

Yesterday I described my player analysis method and used Brad Richards as an example.  Over the next little while I’ll apply my analysis method to a number of players so if there are any players you are interested in seeing my analysis for let me know.  First up is Tim Connolly.  The Leafs lost out on the Brad Richards sweepstakes so lets take a look at how Tim Connolly stacks up. Let’s start off with a table of what I consider Tim Connolly’s most pertinent information – his 5v5 HARO+ (offense), HARD+ (defense) and HART+ (overall) ratings over the years.

» Read more

How I Evaluate Players (and Why)

Over the past couple of weeks I have had several comment discussions regarding some of my recent posts on player evaluation and Norris and Hart trophy candidates which centered around which is a better method for evaluating players:  corsi vs goal based evaluation.  A lot of people, maybe the majority of those within the advanced hockey stat community, seem to prefer corsi based analysis while I prefer goal based analysis and I hope to explain why with this post.  I have explained much of this previously but hopefully this post will put it all into one simple easy to understand

» Read more
1 20 21 22 23 24 110