Jan 282010

The Leafs, Hurricanes and Oilers are the only teams in definitive selling mode as we approach the Olympic break and subsequent trade deadline and with the way things are going there may not be all that many other sellers out there. So for now, let’s stick with these three teams and Ilya Kovalchuk and make some predictions on whether the following players will be traded and what kind of return they could garner. My predictions will be in the comments.

Atlanta Thrashers
Ilya Kovalchuk

Toronto Maple Leafs
Tomas Kaberle – one more year at $4.25M cap hit and salary
Alexei Ponikarovsky
Matt Stajan
Niklas Hagman – 2 more years at $3M cap hit and salary
Lee Stempniak
Jamal Mayers
Garnett Exelby
Wayne Primeau
Vesa Toskala
Jason Blake – 2 more years at $4M cap hit, $3M actual salary
Jeff Finger – 2 more years at $3.5M cap hit and salary

Carolina Hurricanes
Ray Whitney
Matt Cullen
Stephane Yelle
Joe Corbo
Aaron Ward
Niclas Wallin
Manny Legace

Edmonton Oilers
Sheldon Souray – 2 more years at $5.4M cap hit, $4.5M actual salary
Steve Staios – 1 more year at $2.7M cap hit, $2.2M actual salary
Shawn Horcoff – 5 more years at $5.5M cap hit, 6.5M,6.5M,6.0M,4.0M,3.0M actual salary
Ethan Moreau – 1 more year at $2.0M cap hit, 1.75M actual salary
Fernando Pisani
Robert Nilsson – Another year at $2M cap hit, $2.5M actual salary.
Lubomir Visnovsky – Three more years at $5.6M cap hit, $6.0M, $5.0M, $3.0M actual salary.

Jan 272010

I have been picking on Howard Berger a lot recently, but I won’t say much here. I think his words speak for themselves.

September 30th, 2009

My own sense is that the Leafs will improve, but not quite enough to sneak into the playoffs.

TORONTO… 90 pts (9th)

November 2nd, 2009

Exactly one month of the 2009-10 National Hockey League season has passed for the Maple Leafs and there’s already enough data to reasonably conclude that the franchise will extend its record absence from the Stanley Cup playoffs next spring. That shouldn’t come as a bulletin to any rational person that has watched the club stumble through its first 12 games, but common sense rarely prevails in our rose-colored city.

December 21st, 2009

In a season that looked, early on, as if it would have few defining moments, tonight’s home date with the Buffalo Sabres will speak loudest about the Maple Leafs. There are no extenuating circumstances heading into the match — neither club played last night; both are relatively healthy [though Thomas Vanek is out] – and it represents the most significant hour of the Leafs’ season to this point. If they can follow Saturday’s shut-out conquest of the Bruins by knocking off their prime nemesis of the past calendar year, there will be no reason to think the Leafs cannot remain indefinitely in the playoff hunt.

January 24th, 2010

Though I took a lot of abuse from wishful fans of the Blue & White for suggesting that making the playoffs was a “pipe-dream” after only eight games [and a 0-7-1 start], at least the word “playoffs” was still remotely part of the discussion with 74 games left on the schedule. Now, it will take a blazing streak for the Leafs to merely finish 13th in the Eastern Conference.

Interesting how playoffs after 8 games was a pipe dream but on December 21st there was no reason to think that remaining in a playoff hunt indefinitely was not possible. But that’s Howard for you (though this kind of goofiness isn’t unique to Howard).

The only suggestion I have from all of this is for everyone to remember that the NHL season is a long season and every team has its ups and downs and jumping to conclusions based on 10 or 15 game segments is pointless, especially in a league where there are so few great teams and a whole lot of mediocrity.

Jan 222010

I think it is time that I come out and express my opinion on the Leafs season so far. The Leafs are currently sitting in 14th spot in the east with 44 points in 52 games thanks to a dismal 17-25-10 record. Now I know that many of you are loving that my prediction of the Leafs making the playoffs is going so wrong as now I have to eat crow and admit my bias, but let me point out two things many seem to forget.

1. I don’t think anyone predicted the Leafs would end the season with just 69 points, which is where they will end up if they keep on their current pace. Howard Berger, and others, love to talk about how bad the Leafs are and how we all knew that going into the season except for the most optimistic and unrealistic of fans. But of course, what Howard fails to mention that he didn’t predict the Leafs would end the season with 69 points, but rather he predicted the Leafs would end the season with 90 points and ending up 9th in the conference. Sorry Howard, but you’ll have to admit that you were awfully wrong about the Leafs this season too. And it isn’t just Howard. Almost everyone thought that the Leafs would be improved and likely end up just out of the playoffs. In fact, pretty much everyone predicted the Leafs would end up closer to my 95 point prediction than to the 69 points they are currently on pace for. So, if I am going to eat crow, you’ll all have to too.

2. A significant portion of my optimistic thinking was that I thought the combination of a healthy Toskala, a hopefully good Gustavsson, and a better 3rd goalie in MacDonald would result in much improved goaltending. Here is my exact quote:

Now I know a lot of people will scream bias at this prediction but I truly believe that 95 points is relatively easily obtainable if they even get average goaltending. Maybe I shouldn’t assume that but with a healthy Toskala, a promising prospect in Gustavsson and a more than decent third option in Joey MacDonald not to mention one of the best goalie coaches in the game in Francois Allaire getting average goaltending is certainly within reach. They also have a good and deep defense and a significant number of forwards capable of scoring 20-30 goals so they should produce enough offensively. Goaltending is key.

Well, none of that panned out. Toskala has been even worse than ever and Gustavsson has been good at times, bad at other times and overall just mediocre. The end result is a team save percentage of .885 which is exactly the same as last year. That goes a long way to explaining why the Leafs are so bad this year just as it does in explaining how bad the Hurricanes, Blue Jackets and Oilers are (those three teams are the 29th, 28th and 27th worst teams in save percentage.

So with that out of the way, let me address some specific issues with respect to the Leafs.

Goaltending going Forward

The goaltending is in complete disarray. Based on his play, Toskala has probably not even earned a roster spot in the ECHL, let along the NHL. Save for a game or two, he has been horrid. He has no future with the Leafs, and quite possibly no future in the NHL (though Raycroft still earns an NHL paycheck so anything is possible). But regardless, he won’t be with the Leafs next season. Furthermore, he isn’t likely to garner any attention come the trade deadline. He has been that bad. So the thought of showcasing him as potential trade bait, even for a 7th round pick, is pointless. I can’t think of a single reason why he should get another start this season. Since the Leafs don’t have their first round pick it doesn’t even make sense to play him just to lose more games. In short, Toskala serves no useful role and has no value to the Leafs whatsoever and so should be George Laracque’d and let go immediately. Play Gustavsson 80% of the remaining games and lets see if he can be a starter in the NHL and bring up MacDonald, who at least might have a chance at contributing to the Leafs organization in some capacity beyond this season. The Leafs need to find out what they have in Gustavsson because they simply cannot being another NHL season without some stability in goal. It’s killing the team and it will kill the confidence of the young players on the team and thus hurt their development.
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Jan 152010

One of the reasons I started this blog 4+ years ago was to dispel some of the myths and utter nonsense that the main stream media, and subsequently hockey fans, spew. Most specifically about the Maple Leafs, but about hockey in general as well. There are a number of other good bloggers that from time to time do the same and I have frequently exchanged e-mails with members of the media to attempt to inform them on reality but sadly, most of them still spew the same nonsense. With this post, Howard Berger will be my main target.

Now, I have exchanged many e-mails with Howard over the years and he often responds and seems like a nice enough guy, but his reporting, especially of late, has been utterly horrific. On Monday Howard wrote a blog post on the Wilson/Burke relationship and that the friendship would not stand in the way of Burke firing Wilson if it came down to that. That is all fine and dandy but at the end of that he talks about the Leafs tradable commodities and how they will not land anything of significance at the trade deadline.

The Leafs’ expendable parts do not possess any such pedigree. Even Kaberle – one of the most gifted passers in the NHL – has severe limitations as a defenseman. There is no physical component to his game; his early playoff record is thoroughly unremarkable, and he can be outmaneuvered by a clever opponent, as Sidney Crosby proved by undressing him at the Air Canada Centre on Saturday night.

For the record, only Nicklas Lidstrom has more points by a defenseman post lockout. Sure, maybe Kaberle isn’t a Chris Pronger or Zdeno Chara but I don’t think anyone has ever accused Scott Niedermayer or Dan Boyle or Mike Green or even Nicklas Lidstrom of being overly physical players. And as for Sidney Crosby undressing Kaberle, well, it is not like Crosby isn’t capable of undressing any and every defenseman in the NHL. Yes, Kaberle is no Lidstrom, and isn’t a Chris Pronger or Zdeno Chara either, but is he as good as Dan Boyle? That’s probably a reasonable comparison and that makes Kaberle an all-star caliber defenseman. It is strange how so many in Leaf land, both media and fans, choose not to give credit where credit is deserved, even with Kaberle.

Howard then moved towards the remaining potential trade targets.

Unless a rival manager takes leave of his senses, he will not trade a top prospect or a draft choice in the first three rounds for any of the aforementioned.

Otherwise, Burke has third and fourth-line commodities to offer up at the deadline. A fellow like Stajan could provide an opposing club durability, depth and character at the key center-ice position, but he will not be an impact player. Neither will Ponikarovsky, Blake, Stempniak, Finger or Toskala – several of whom Burke couldn’t give away.

The above nonsense is some of the most idiotic analysis I see and it isn’t restricted to Howard Berger. Today Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail spewed similar nonsense.

Frankly, I also have little difficulty with Burke’s trade for Phil Kessel: he inherited a club that – let’s face it – didn’t even have a second-line forward on a good team let a lone a first-line forward.

Essentially what they are saying is the Leafs, outside of Kessel, don’t have a top 6 forward, or at least anyone that would be a top six forward on a good team. Let’s start with Stajan. He had 55 points last year and is on pace for 61 points this year. I’ll assume that both Berger and Blair believe that the Washington Capitals are a good team. They are, in fact, the highest scoring team in the NHL, by a significant margin. They are, also, a team that for the most part employs Brendan Morrison as their second line center. Brendan had 31 points last year and is on pace for just 50 points this year. Are you telling me that Stajan would not fit in as a second line center for the Capitals? The Pittsburgh Penguins are deep down the center but they have exactly 2, yes 2, players with more points than Stajan. They also only have one player, and no wingers, with more goals than Ponikarovsky or Hagman. Mike Rupp and Pascal Dupuis are second and third in goals scored by a Pittsburgh winger with 11 goals each. Are Berger and Blair trying to tell me that Hagman, with 16 goals, and Ponikarovsky, with 15 goals (both very reliable defensively as well) aren’t good enough to play on the Penguins top two lines? Sorry, I am not buying it and I do believe that both Blair and Berger believe that the Penguins are a good team. Go down the list of good teams and you will find a number of spots on the top two lines for a number of Leaf players.
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Dec 132009

Fist off, I was recently interviewed by Robin Keith Thompson of Chiller Instinct (and also a long time contributor to and friend of HockeyAnalysis.com, currently in the Phoenix blog). In the interview we discuss mostly the Blackhawks and the value of their quality third line of Madden, Brouwer and Ladd. Check it out.

Now on to the Leafs. About a month and a half ago on October 24th the Leafs were 0-7-1 and almost everyone had written off the Leafs. Before the season I made a bold prediction that the Leafs would make the playoffs and a number of people called me out on that prediction calling me biased. When the Leafs started the season 0-7-1 those same people came back and asked if I wanted to eat crow now and that I was an idiot for making that prediction as the Leafs had no chance of making the playoffs. I consistently defended my prediction with ‘come talk to me in January when we have played a meaningful number of games’. The Leafs then went on a stretch of 7 games getting a point in every game by going 3-0-4 and were generally playing better. Everyone stopped feeling the need to criticize me and my prediction at this point. Then the Leafs fell back into some of their problems they experienced in the first 8 games and lost four straight in regulation to Minnesota, Chicago, Calgary and Ottawa and then blew a big lead to lose to Carolina in overtime. At this point everyone came back and criticized me again. It has been pretty quiet recently because the Leafs have been playing well but it is now my turn to stand up and gloat a little as the Leafs are currently sitting 4 points behind 8th place Montreal with a game in hand having just beaten maybe the best team in the eastern conference. But it gets better than that.

Before the season many people suggested that with the acquisition of Komisarek and Beauchemin on defense and the hopefully better play of a healthy Toskala and/or a strong rookie season from Gustavsson that the Leafs will cut down their goals against, but who is going to score? Then they traded for Kessel and many criticized giving up two first round picks and a second round picks and question whether the trade made any sense considering the Leafs had no play making center like Marc Sarvard to feed Kessel the puck. They questioned whether the Kessel could score at near the rate he did in Boston without such a center and without a play making center it made no sense to go out and pick up a pure goal scorer. I constantly defended the trade saying the two first round picks were not too much to give up for someone with the skill of Kessel because most first round picks outside of say the top 5 picks don’t turn out to be half the player that Kessel is. In short, the gamble was worth it.

Before the season I defended the Leafs offense and despite not having a true elite level forward I thought that they would at lease be OK offensively.

To summarize, too many people have a false view of what kind of offense a top 6 forward will produce. Most top 6 forwards aren’t 30 goal, 70 point guys. The majority of them are 20-25 goal, 50-60 point guys and in that regard the Leafs are just fine. Are the Leafs going to be an elite offensive team in the NHL? No. Can they be a good one, as they have been for several years now? You bet.

Fast forward to today and we find the Leafs offense is currently sitting in 9th spot in goals for average and that is pretty good considering they were near the bottom of the league before Kessel returned. We have also learned that Kessel doesn’t need a play making center to score goals, he can do it on his own. It is also worth pointing out that only the Washington Capitals, the leagues top scoring team, has more 10+ goal scorers than the Leafs. The Capitals have 5 10+ goal scorers while the Leafs are tied with the Canucks, Blue Jackets, and Ducks with four. Media hypes all the time about Chicago’s great young offensive stars but they have zero, yes zero, players with 10 goals right now. Nobody should really be surprised by any of this because the Leafs have for the most part consistently been in the top 10-12 teams in terms of offense the past dozen years or so, including the years post lockout. It’s unfortunate that so many fail to realize that.

The Leafs are not out of the woods yet but the edge of the woods is within sight and a playoff spot is just a few short steps beyond that. They are, for the most part, playing good hockey (8-3-1 in last 12 games), and for the most part, are now getting acceptable to good goaltending (no longer last in goals against average or save percentage). The goaltending is still the key for me. If it continues as it has recently by Toskala and how Gustavsson has been for much of the season, making the playoffs should be a very strong possiblity.

To summarize, the message of the story is that we all should stop drawing conclusions from 8 or 12 or even 20 games. The NHL season is a long one and a dozen games is not enough to draw any conclusions from.

Nov 252009

It has been a pretty dismal season for Maple Leaf fans so far. At times they have played downright awful, and lost, and at times they have played quite well, and still lost. They probably deserve to have a better record than they do, but not a lot has gone right for them this season. There have been a few bright spots though and one is Ian White. Which of the following is not like the other?

Ian White +6
Tomas Kaberle -6
Luke Schenn -6
Garnet Exelby -7
Jeff Finger -8
Mike Komisarek -9
Francois Beauchemin -11

That list above has to be one of the strangest lists I have ever seen in hockey. I can hardly believe such a set of stats is even possible. How is it possible that six Leaf defensemen have a -6 rating or worse while White is at +6. White has to be playing with one of them every time he is on the ice so it seems really really odd that he could manage a +6 rating. Even if White was the best defenseman in the world that they rest should be pulling down his +/- rating.

There are only 18 defensemen in the NHL this year with a better +/- than White. There are only 17 defensemen in the NHL this year with more points than White’s 13. There are only 10 defensemen who have a +6 rating or better and at least 13 points. That is pretty impressive for a defenseman on the team with the worst record in hockey and one of the lowest scoring teams.

This isn’t completely new for White either. Last year he led the Leafs (tied with Ponikarovsky) with a +6 rating. Van Ryn, in just 27 games, was a +2 while all other Leaf defensemen were even at best. Kubina was -25, Schenn was -12, Kaberle was -8, and Finger was -7. Part timers Frogren and Stralman were even and -2 respectively.

Ian White was arguably the Leafs best defenseman last year once he was given the opportunity and he is certainly the Leafs best defenseman this year. He is one of the hardest workers on the team and while he doesn’t have great size he doesn’t back down from or is intimidated by physical play and will even drop the gloves from time to time. He plays well in his own zone, moves the puck well and contributes to offense. He can play in any situation, on the power play, on the penalty kill, in crucial situations late in the game. He has developed into a complete player.

Ian White is a restricted free agent at the end of the season. Brian Burke needs to do everything he can to get White locked up on a long term contract.

Oct 292009

Back in the summer the NHL presented the names of Toronto Argonaut co-owners Howard Sokolowski and David Cynamon as an interested group in purchasing the Phoenix Coyotes. Later it was rumoured that these two potentially joined up with the Ice Edge Holdings Inc. group which would purchase the Coyotes. Today we hear that the two Argonaut owners have decided to go on their own again and have broken away from the Ice Edge group.

Sokolowski and Cynamon had been linked to Ice Edge Holdings, a group of eight Canadian and U.S. businessmen who have made a pitch for the club. But their involvement with Ice Edge ended several weeks ago, according to sources familiar with the bidding.

Just to give a little background on Sokolowski and Cynamon, these two purchased the Toronto Argonauts when the Argos were in financial/bankruptcy trouble of their own. They had some early success on the field which turned the franchise around financially but the past couple seasons have been a disaster on the field and attendance and the image of the team within Toronto has been hurt because of it. But overall the franchise is doing OK, but we have recently heard that they may be looking to sell the team and get involved in the NHL.

We also heard this summer that when Sokolowski and Cynamon purchased the team for a mere $2 million, the owner of the BC Lions put up half of the franchise fee and has continued to lend money to the franchise since the purchase in 2003. None of these transactions were approved by the CFL nor did the CFL even have knowledge of these transactions. The CFL has issued a statement that the transactions that took place only took place because of the love of the game by the people involved and that there is no evidence that the integrity of the league has been affected in any way. That is all fine and dandy, but that raises several questions with respect to the suitability of these two as owners of an NHL franchise.

1. Can Sokolowski and Cynamon actually afford an NHL franchise? If they only put up half of a $2 million fee and then required additional loans to fund ongoing operating losses, can they really afford a $140 million price tag on the Coyotes along with whatever losses the franchise will suffer over the next few seasons?

2. If the NHL rejected Jim Balsillie for his questionable negotiation tactics during the negotiations to purchase the Penguins and Predators, can they just brush aside the fact that they, without CFL permission and presumable against CFL regulations, accepted funding from a fellow CFL owner?

As for question 1, I honestly don’t know how wealthy Sokolowski and Cynamon are or what kind of investors that they may have backing them but based on the CFL example I have my doubts that they themselves have the financial ability to put up $140 million and then fund the teams losses for the next several years. But of course, not having financial wherewithal has never stopped the NHL from approving an owner. See Len Barrie and the Tampa Bay Lightning as a prime example.

As for question 2, the answer should be no, the NHL should not just ignore that fact and it should be held against them just as Balsillie’s negotiation tactics were held against him. Nothing Balsillie did could have harmed the integrity of the on ice product, which in my opinion is the most important thing to preserve, while having an owner having a financial interest in two franchises at least opens the door to possibility of integrity issues, or at least the appearance of a possibility of integrity issues. I consider the Cynamon/Sokolowski team funding issues to be of greater significance than the Balsillie negotiation tactics issues but of course the NHL does not agree as evidenced by the fact that there was no backlash against current Minnesota Wild owner Craig Liepold for lending money to Boots Del Biagio (who we now know had no money) to allow him to become a minority owner of a group purchasing the Nashville Predators from then owner of the Predators, Craig Liepold.

It seems to me that all you really need to be an NHL owner is Gary Bettman’s blessing and play by Gary Bettman’s rules. In that regard, Sokolowski and Cynamon may be perfectly qualified to be NHL owners. But of course, I don’t believe that anyone purchasing the Coyotes really believes the Coyotes have a future in Phoenix but rather they just see it as a cheap way to get into the NHL and eventually move the team to a location where they want. With that in mind, I expect Sokolowski and Cynamon, and their financial backers, are really a group that wants to put a second team in the Toronto area and so long as they don’t tell Gary Bettman that or make it publicly known, it may work out for them.

Oct 282009

The NHL has never backed away from talking itself up and it recently issued a press release that did just that. Much of the press release highlighted the increase in television ratings and increased traffic to NHL.com but there was some discussion on NHL attendance levels.

-Through Oct. 21, attendance increased or remained even for 18 NHL teams compared to the same number of home games last season.

-Teams with the largest gains in attendance included the Boston Bruins, Atlanta Thrashers, Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils, Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets.

It is interesting that they point out that attendance for 18 NHL teams have remained the same or increased because that implies that attendance has dropped for 12 NHL teams, which can’t be a good thing. It should be noted that nowhere in that press release did it discuss overall attendance levels which are actually down.

I have dug through all the NHL game data and compared this seasons home attendance to last seasons home attendance for every team comparing attendance for each teams first x number of home games this year to that teams first x number of home games from one year ago where x is the number of home games the team has played so far this season. Games played in Europe last year and this year have been omitted. Here are the results for games played through last night.

Atlanta had the greatest attendance increase attracting an average of 1,634 additional fans per game but it should be mentioned that they have only played 3 home games so far so the sample size is quite small and is likely influenced by the fact that two of their home games this year were Saturday games while none were last year and teams generally draw much better for Saturday games.

New Jersey is second attracting an additional 1,469 additional fans, but again, of their 4 games so far, two have been Saturday games and none were a year ago. Next at the top of the increased attendance list are Boston, Columbus and Washington who have benefited from have pretty good seasons on the ice last year. All other teams with an increase in attendance saw an increase of less than 1% while Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal and the Rangers had exactly the same attendance and sold out every game. Vancouver also sold out every game last year and again this year but somehow managed to find an additional 180 seats per game to sell.

Teams with the greatest drop in attendance are Phoenix (-30.4%), Anaheim (-10.9%), Islanders (-9.6%), Colorado (-8.9%), Carolina (-8.1%), Tampa (-5.0%), Nashville (-5.0%), Ottawa (-4.8%), Detroit (-3.1%), Dallas (-3.1%), Minnesota (-2.0%), Chicago (-1.1%), and Buffalo (-0.7%).

Overall attendance compared to last season has dropped 45,988 or about 307 fans per game which equates to a drop of approximately 1.8%. If these trends continue the NHL could see upwards of 350,000 fewer fans purchasing tickets this season. To put that into perspective, if each ticket sale lost was a $50 ticket, that would equal a drop in revenues of 17.5 million in ticket sale revenue which in the grand scheme of things is not that significant. That much revenue loss would equate to a salary cap drop of approximately $330,000, though a drop attendance would also affect other game day related revenues (parking, concessions, merchandise, etc.).

But what the NHL has to find disturbing is that the drop in attendance is mostly affecting the already financially challenged teams like Phoenix, Islanders, Carolina, Tampa, Nashville, etc. These teams cannot afford to become any less competitive with the big markets and additionally some teams like Phoenix and Nashville are facing the potential to see their revenue sharing dollars cut if they can’t get above 14,000 in attendance or can’t grow revenue at the same pace as the rest of the NHL.

Here is each teams attendance change from one year ago.
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Oct 272009

Yesterday the NHL, Moyes, and the other creditors were in court before bankruptcy judge Redfield T. Baum and they have apparently come to an arrangement that will see the NHL purchase the Coyotes.  The intention of the NHL is to secure the Coyotes and then quickly flip them to another potential owner interested in keeping the team in Phoenix.  The most talked about potential buyer is a group called Ice Edge Holdings which had previously expressed interest in purchasing the team but was not able to come to an agreement with the City of Glendale and possibly other creditors in time to put in a bid during the bankruptcy process.

Azcentral.com conducted an interview with Daryl Jones of Ice Edge in regards to the situation.  Two things he said deserve some consideration.

Any new buyer is going to need some help, and I don’t mean concessions. You need help from the NHL to draw fans, and Glendale on a grassroots level.

Interesting that he said “I don’t mean concessions” which I read to mean concessions from the city. I don’t buy this. I believe this is a publicity statement because everyone agrees that the Coyotes cannot operate under the current lease arrangement and the NHL is purchasing the Coyotes only committing to keep the current lease through the end of this season. Essentially the existing lease agreement is going to be torn up at the end of this season and anyone purchasing the Coyotes with the intent of keeping them in Glendale will only do so with a different lease arrangement. Ice Edge, or any other ownership group, will have the ultimate bargaining power with the City: let us play here for next to nothing, or we will leave. Daryl Jones can call it something other than ‘concessions’ but the only way the team stays in Glendale is under a new, and much cheaper, lease arrangement that will see less net flow of money from the team to Glendale.

No we’re not going to do that. I know other parties have tried to do that. We quite frankly don’t have a backup plan. Our plan is to make it work in Phoenix. In our opinion, it’s the wrong way to approach the partnership with Glendale – a “we’ll try it but if it doesn’t work out we’re going to leave.

That statement is just plain stupid. No one, and I mean no one, will be willing to put $140 million into a relatively risky investment without a backup plan. They may not state it publicly but I can guarantee you they have discussed a backup plan. The guys behind Ice Edge Holdings Inc. are investors looking to make a profit, not mega rich guys looking for a hobby to spend their money on. They view this as a way to get into the NHL on the cheap. If an NHL franchise in say Kansas City is worth $200 million and they purchase the Coyotes for $140 million, that gives them a $60 million cushion to work with. If they can get a much better lease arrangement with the City of Glendale and get some additional revenue from playing a handful of games in Saskatoon they could theoretically test the Coyotes market for say 3 years before they eat up that $60 million. From an investment standpoint, they don’t start losing money until they go beyond the $200 million point. If anyone thinks that Ice Edge Holdings hasn’t discussed this you are fooling yourself. Even the NHL didn’t want to buy the team without an out clause in their conditions to purchase the team.

There is also some talk that Gary Bettman is continuing discussions with a Toronto group that is interested in purchasing the Coyotes and keeping them in Phoenix. Again, my skepticism remains the same. I just can’t imagine anyone without any specific ties to the Phoenix area being willing to purchase the Coyotes and be committed to keeping the team in Phoenix long term. No one will put that much money at risk without at least some assurances that if it doesn’t work out in a few years they can move the franchise. Publicly they may state otherwise, but most assuredly they will be looking at an out.

Since we are on the topic of the Phoenix Coyotes, Gary Bettman conducted and interview on Coyotes TV in which he said something completely ridiculous in regards to the Coyotes franchise.

The vital signs with everything that this franchise has been through are actually pretty good.

Here is the reality of it all. They held an opening night promotion selling all tickets at $25 or less and they managed to sell out the arena. Since then they have average just under 9,000 tickets sold per game (with fewer fans bothering to show up). Barring a completely unexpected change of fan interest the Coyotes will not reach an average of 14,000 fans per game which will see their revenue share allotment cut back by 25%, or nearly $4 million and if they don’t reach that level again next year it will be cut back even more. That makes a dire situation look even worse. Now, I am not sure of Bettman’s definition of ‘pretty good’ is, but I would not call those pretty good vital signs.

Oct 162009

So the word out of Phoenix last night was that the announced attendance for the Coyotes game was 6,899 but that probably more like 5000 people actually showed up. Clearly attendance in Phoenix is going to be a major issue this year, but it won’t just be Phoenix if early attendance numbers are any indication. Here are attendance numbers for three other southern U.S. teams that have played at least 3 home games so far.

Carolina Hurricanes

2008-09 2009-10 Difference
18680 18680 0
18680 16186 -2494
15016 13597 -1419
15635 14053 -1582

Nashville Predators

2008-09 2009-10 Difference
17113 14797 -2316
13259 14209 950
12042 12179 137
14704 13103 -1601

Tampa Bay Lightning

2008-09 2009-10 Difference
18552 17454 -1098
14420 14212 -208
15191 14126 -1065

It is still early but those are significant drops in attendance figures. Nashville is going to be particularly interesting to watch because they need to keep attendance above the 14,000 mark to maintain a full share of revenue sharing. Failure to achieve an average of 14,000 will cause them to lose 25% of their revenue sharing allotment which would equate to close to $4,000,000 which is significant to any team, particularly one that is struggling to break even. If Tampa struggles on the ice and fans become more disinterested because of it this could become a problem for them as well and we already know how unstable their ownership situation is. This despite a significant drop in average ticket price for Lightning games.

What is also interesting is that falling attendance may not be limited to non-traditional southern US hockey markets.

Ottawa Senators

2008-09 2009-10 Difference
20182 18075 -2107
20179 19360 -819
19318 17014 -2304
18952 17732 -1220

The rise in the Canadian dollar will help offset some of the drop in attendance revenue and if Ottawa can play well then I can see their attendance improving, but clearly some of the luster of high flying Senators teams of a few years ago when they sold out every game has faded away.

Detroit Red Wings

2008-09 2009-10 Difference
20066 20066 0
19011 19122 111
20066 17782 -2284

We all know that Detroit is an extremely hard hit city economically and it may start reflecting in the Red Wings attendance this year. The 17,782 that showed up to watch the Red Wings last night is 1,080 fewer fans that last years lowest attendance level of 18,862.

I revisit these teams and also take a look at a few other franchises (Atlanta, Florida, Dallas, etc.) in a few weeks once each team has played a few more home games but early indications are not all that good for some franchises.