What is Shea Weber worth in arbitration?

As we all await the results of Shea Weber’s arbitration hearing we are all speculating the salary that the arbitrator will award Shea Weber.  Speculation is that Shea Weber is asking for $8.5M and the Predators are asking for $4.75M.  Damien Cox believes he is probably going to get awarded $7.5-8M. Dion Phaneuf makes $6.5 million per (all figures U.S.), and Weber is a superior player from the same 2003 NHL draft class. The same goes for Weber as compared to Brent Burns, and Burns signed a five-year, $28.5 million contract (cap hit $5.76 million) with the San Jose Sharks

» Read more

Is Luke Schenn really a top shutdown defenseman?

So I woke up this morning and started reading the usual morning news and blogs and one of the first ones I happened to read was an article at Maple Leafs Hot Stove on the Luke Schenn contract negotiations.  One comment early in the post really caught my attention. While he may not be an offensive machine (I believe there is still some upside there), at 23, he has blossomed into one of the leagues best shutdown defensemen. First off, Schenn is 21 not 23 but what really caught my attention is the assertion that he is one of the

» Read more

Some Names for Gabe

An interesting statistical debate sprung up today started by Tom Benjamin who wrote about his skepticism of the Corsi statistic.  In it Tom comments on the fact that Ryan Kesler and Ryan Clowe ranked so highly in corsi in response to Greg Ballentine’s posts at The Puck Stops Here. Greg’s examples, it seems to me, make a good case against the Corsi statistic. First, both the Kesler and Clowe stories tell us how much influence context has – neither Kesler nor Clowe could have done it playing on a different team or even playing in a different role on the

» Read more

Brendan Morrison and the failure of Corsi

Last night after news came out that Brendan Morrison had re-signed with the Calgary Flames, Kent Wilson tweeted the following: Morrison back in Calgary. Check out his corsi tied rating fellow stats nerds: http://bit.ly/q1ywUj The link is to the Calgary Flames 5v5 game tied corsi ratings which show Morrison had a 0.452 corsi rating (Corsi For %) which was dead last on the Flames.  The problem with jumping to the conclusion that Morrison is bad is two fold: 1.  Corsi generally speaking isn’t good at evaluating players. 2.  One year of 5v5 game tied data is not enough to evaluate

» Read more

Evaluating Tim Connolly

Yesterday I described my player analysis method and used Brad Richards as an example.  Over the next little while I’ll apply my analysis method to a number of players so if there are any players you are interested in seeing my analysis for let me know.  First up is Tim Connolly.  The Leafs lost out on the Brad Richards sweepstakes so lets take a look at how Tim Connolly stacks up. Let’s start off with a table of what I consider Tim Connolly’s most pertinent information – his 5v5 HARO+ (offense), HARD+ (defense) and HART+ (overall) ratings over the years.

» Read more

How I Evaluate Players (and Why)

Over the past couple of weeks I have had several comment discussions regarding some of my recent posts on player evaluation and Norris and Hart trophy candidates which centered around which is a better method for evaluating players:  corsi vs goal based evaluation.  A lot of people, maybe the majority of those within the advanced hockey stat community, seem to prefer corsi based analysis while I prefer goal based analysis and I hope to explain why with this post.  I have explained much of this previously but hopefully this post will put it all into one simple easy to understand

» Read more

How Bad is the Tomas Kopecky Contract?

Anyone who knows anything about hockey, save for Florida GM Dale Tallon it seems, immediately thought ‘bad contract’ when they heard that the Florida Panthers had signed Tomas Kopecky to a 4 year contract at $3M/year.  But how bad is that contract?  Well, lets take a look. Goal based stats (i.e. any stats that requite goals to calculate which is pretty much everything except things like shots or corsi) are heavily influenced by random events over the short term but over the long term tell a much more accurate picture than shot or corsi based stats.  Personally I consider goal

» Read more

Conflicting Reports about Brad Richards

Lance Hornby has an article this morning discussing a report from the New York Daily News that the Leafs are looking to make a trade for the rights to Brad Richards. Two problems with this: 1.  Just last week Brian Burke said “it wasn’t something we are in the process of looking at” (right at end of interview) 2.  Brad Richards agent Pat Morris over the weekend was quoted in the Toronto Star as saying Richards was not willing to waive his no trade clause and will almost certainly wait out June and become a UFA July 1st. The second

» Read more

Leafs Off Season: Search for a Defenseman

As it stands right now the Leafs have six NHL experienced defensemen under contract and another three who are restricted free agents.  Assuming all three of the RFA’s get re-signed it leaves the Leafs with 7 defensemen, five of which will be regulars (Phaneuf, Schenn, Gunnarsson, Aulie and Komisarek) and two that are more along the lines of depth defensemen (Lebda and Lashoff).  Phaneuf and Schenn are the top two guys (though they may not end up playing together) and depending on where you see Gunnarsson and Aulie fitting into the mix the Leafs will be looking for a #3,

» Read more

Persistence and Predictability

There seems to be some confusion, or lack of clarity, about my post on corsi vs shooting percentage vs shooting rate the other day so let me clear it up in as straight forward a way as I can. “Hawerchuk” over at BehindTheNetHockey.com writes the following: “I’m not totally sure what he’s getting at. People use Fenwick because it’s persistent, and PDO because it’s not. Over the course of a single season, observed shooting and save percentage drive results, but they are not persistent.” Dirk Hoag over at OnTheForecheck.com writes: “Here’s an example of when NOT to use correlation as

» Read more
1 20 21 22 23 24 110