Follow up on recent conversations…

Earlier this week I participated in several conversations elsewhere and thought I’d post a followup to a few of them. “The Bet” The other day I posted an article about on ice shooting percentage being a talent and referenced a discussion I had with Gabe Desjardin’s of Arctic Ice Hockey at MC79Hockey.com.  As part of that discussion we were negotiating a “bet” of sorts.  In it I suggested that as a group Crosby, Gaborik, Ryan, St. Louis, H. Sedin, Toews, Heatley, Tanguay, Datsyuk, Horton would have an average on-ice shooting percentage over 10% this season while Gabe suggested that the

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On-ice Shooting Percentage as a Talent

There has been an interesting discussion of on-ice shooting percentage at Tyler Dellow’s mc79hockey.com.  I have argued that we need to look at on-ice shooting percentage as a talent, and not something that just happens randomly while others have largely dismissed it.  One person in particular is Gabe Desjardin’s who has a followup post on his blog largely dismissing its importance. In his blog post Gabe first discusses Gaborik’s value just considering his on-ice shooting percentage. So are these totals 75% skill then?  Let’s do a quick check on how many goals that skill would be worth: 1000 on-ice shots/season * 2.5% above

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The Skinny on Steckel

The Leafs traded for David Steckel yesterday and while this is by no means a significant trade my first reaction to it was a very positive one.  A fourth round pick is almost worthless and Steckel is a more than useful quality defensive third/fourth line guy who can kill penalties, something the Leafs desperately need.  Upon further review of the stats, I still like the trade because of it’s low risk but my thoughts on Steckel are a little more mixed than I first believed. The Good On the surface, Steckel looks like a premiere defensive forward.  Over the past

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Predicting the Western Conference

Yesterday I posted my 100% statistics based predictions for the eastern conference, today here are the predictions for the western conference.  See the eastern conference predictions for more details on how these predictions are calculated but generally speaking I use my player rating system and combine them with my estimates for ice time for every player to come up with a predicted goals for and against for every team.  I haven’t converted the goal differentials to won-loss records because I actually think looking at the predicted goals for and against and goal differential provides better insight into the strengths and

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Predicting the Eastern Conference – Version 2.0

A week or two ago I presented a prediction of the eastern conference using a purely statistics based analysis.  There were a number of limitations with the process which I outlined at the beginning of the post but I have fixed some of those so this is version 2.0 of the prediction algorithm.  Let me summarize the process.  I took each teams current rosters and estimated the amount of even strength, power play and shorthanded ice time each player on the roster would play.  For veteran players, the estimates were loosely based on previous years ice time which should give us

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Mike Weaver – Premiere Defensive Defenseman

Over on Pension Plan Puppets there was a brief discussion of some of the top defensive defensemen and I suggested that Mike Weaver has to be considered among the top few defenders in the NHL.  The response was generally along the lines of ‘Mike who?’ and then followed with “he only looks good because he plays in front of Vokoun who may be the best goalie in the NHL.”  My thoughts on Vokoun being over rated aside, the numbers really do support Weaver as being a premiere level defensive defenseman.  Let’s look at some Mike Weaver numbers. Over the past

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Predicting the Eastern Conference

I have spent a lot of time and effort putting together player ratings so I decided it was time to finally put them to good use and attempt to use them to predict results for the upcoming season.  This is my attempt at the eastern conference and time permitting I’ll tackle the western conference in the future. To accomplish this goal I used my 3-year (2008-11) offensive (HARO+) and defensive (HARD+) ratings at 5v5close, 5v4 powerplay and 4v5 penalty kill situations and combined all of the ratings for all of the players on each team and then converted them back

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Top 15 NHL goalies

Here is my view of the top 15 goalies in the NHL today.  Although I haven’t presented a hard statistical argument for each goalie I did consult a variety of statistics when compiling the list including some advanced stats and my own player rating system. 1.  Tim Thomas – Even if you account for the fact that Thomas plays behind a great team with maybe the best shutdown defenseman in the league (Chara) his numbers are still incredibly impressive.  Easily the best goalie in the NHL right now. 2.  Pekka Rinne – I am not sure everyone knows how good

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We Don't Know

I haven’t yet weighed in on the recent deaths of Derek Boogaard and Rick Rypien but with the passing yesterday of Wade Belak I have decided to let my thoughts be heard. First off, it has been a sad summer with the passing of these three players and my sincere condolences go out to their families and friends.  Regardless of the circumstances, any death is a sad and somber event but even more sad and somber when the deaths are sudden and seemingly avoidable. The above should be the number one thought on everybody’s mind today but clearly these three players are

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Schenn vs Komisarek defensively

A few weeks ago I questioned whether Luke Schenn was really a quality shut down defenseman as some believe and some people too exception to that.  Additionally, now that Lebda has been traded away the favourite defenseman whipping boy of Leaf fans seems to be Mike Komisarek.  Because of this, I decided we should conduct a comparison of the defensive ability of these two players to see if Leaf fans perceptions of these two players matches reality. Schenn Komisarek TOI 864:56 558:53 Goals Against per 20 min. 0.902 0.895 Opposition GF/20min. 0.767 0.757 HARD+ 0.810 0.840 Fenwick Against per 20min.

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