Hockey Analysis

Back on November 25th the NHL was at the quarter point of the season so I decided to take a look at what it would take for teams to make the playoffs. Now that we are approximately at the halfway point it is time to revisit that question and look at what teams will have to do in the second half if they are to make the post season.

I assumed that a team will need 94 points to make the playoffs which in most years post lock out has been enough though in any given season and conference it may not. Right now in the eastern conference the 8th place Sabres are on pace for 92 points and in the west the 8th place Wild are on pace for 88 points. Once playoff contenders stock up on extra talent at the trade deadline we should see these numbers increase so 94 seems like a reasonable goal if a team wants a really good chance of making the playoffs.

In the above table you will find how many games played (GP) and points (Pts) the team currently has and their points per game pace (Pts/Gm). Next you will see the number of games remaining (GR) and how many points they require (RPts) to reach 94 points total and their required points per game pace (RPts/GR) to reach 94 points. In the last column you will find the percentage of their current pace they must maintain over their remaining schedule to make the playoffs (%Pace = (RPts/GP) / (Pts/Gm) ).

Boston is all but a lock to make the playoffs not even needing to pick up points at half the pace they have been to reach the magic number of 94 points. Washington, Montreal and Philadelphia look to be in pretty solid positions if they can avoid any lengthy losing streaks while New Jersey and the Rangers look to be on fairly solid ground as well but should get too complacent. Then things get quite interesting as Buffalo, Carolina, Florida and Pittsburgh are all currently in a tight battle. All are in striking distance which one will pick up their game enough to grab that final spot, or will a pair of them really pick up their games and challenge the Rangers or Devils. My money is on either Pittsburgh or Buffalo as they have the most talent but Carolina is a balanced team and Florida plays a very good defensive game and has good goaltending.

Toronto would need to go on a real lengthy hot streak to get back in the race while the remaining four teams, Ottawa, Tampa, Atlanta and the Islanders, can all but book early spring vacations. Toronto would have to gain points nearly 50% faster in the second half than they did in the first half for them to make the playoffs and the remaining four teams would need to see a 75% improvement. In the Islanders case they need to get points two and a half times faster than they did in the first half of the year to make the playoffs. In short, they need to be as good as Montreal and Chicago were in the first half. Don’t be betting on that happening. I hope John Tavares likes Long Island.

Continue reading Playoff View at the Halfway Point →

The last original member of the Minnesota Wild will be switching jerseys next year. Doug Risebrough and his front office staff made a good run at trying to re-sign franchise star Marian Gaborik, and reportedly offered an 8-year, $64m contract but only to be spurned. Gaborik’s departure was clear, but with the Wild expected to make the playoffs it created an interesting situation. It didn’t make any sense to keep Gaborik past the trade deadline, but it also didn’t make sense to trade away the franchise’s most potent offensive weapon before the playoff run.

Gaborik broke out last year with a 42-goal, 77-games played effort, temporarily dispelling any tags of being injury-prone. But, as some expected, the injury bug bit the Slovak winger again and has only appeared in 6 games thus far. This does not bode well for a UFA-to-be winger who is going to ask for top dollar and a long-term contract. In 8 seasons in the NHL not once has the winger played a full 82-game season, and only 4 times in which he has played more than 70 games.

Sometime next week, Gaborik is expected to undergo hip surgery and will be out for at least 10 weeks, and even for Gaborik and the Wild that is wildly optimistic due to his past history. He came back briefly and unsurprisingly showed brilliance offensively, but was asked by management to take two games off to rest his groin. It made sense for the Wild – they’re playing well enough without its star and giving him extra rest means a less likelihood of him re-injuring or aggravating his groin. However, as local Minnesota reporter Michael Russo reports, it seemed fishy from the beginning.

Barring a miracle comeback, the Wild will not be able to trade Gaborik and even if they did they won’t be getting a package good enough for them to pull the trigger. There’s just simply too many question marks surrounding Gaborik. He’s only 26 and many experts believe that Gaborik’s just scratching the surface of what he can do and he’s worth every penny – if he plays. Earning just a shade over $6m this year, Gaborik will be looking for a pay raise, but unless Gaborik agrees to a contract with an injury clause much like Eric Lindros‘ (in which his pay was wholly dependent on how many games he plays), a lot of teams would be strongly cautioned to throw that much money at him. The stat that many GMs will use as a case to sign him though? The Wild are 42 games above .500 when he plays and 9 games under .500 when he doesn’t.

I’m a big World Juniors fan. I think it’s one of the best tournaments in the world in terms of showcasing the best international talent. I’ve held off commenting about Canada until now, and only because they haven’t really been challenged until tonight against USA. It was the marquee tilt before the new year, and it didn’t disappoint.

This Canada squad is arguably one of the weaker ones in the past five years. Other than John Tavares, there really is no clear-cut gamebreaking forward. In past years, Canada has really been able to depend on at least two scorers. This is not taking anything away from Cody Hodgson, who has been outstanding in his own right, but offensively he is not nearly as gifted as Kyle Turris or Steve Stamkos, both members of last year’s squad.

Going into the tournament, even strength was a problem because of this. Tavares was obviously going to tear up the tournament on the powerplay, but even strength offense fell to the shoulders of Hodgson’s line with Jordan Eberle and Zach Boychuk. When your most offensively gifted player is expected to have problems 5-on-5, it’s a little worrisome, but fortunately for Canada they have incredible depth in all positions. Early on in the game the Americans took advantage, jumping out to an early 3-0 lead with two even strength goals by Kevin Shattenkirk and Jim O’Brien. Dustin Tokarski, the “big game” goalie, looked rusty after 9 days of rest, but after allowing just one goal for the next 48 minutes of play he certainly earned the win.

Penalties abound in the game, but USA put themselves in a pickle two straight penalties from Matt Rust and Blake Kessel. Perhaps it’s because international hockey rules are more stringent about stick infractions and hits, but it seemed as though both teams had some trouble early on adjusting to referees Vyacheslav Bulanov and Tom Laaksonen. With Canada on the powerplay the floodgates opened, with two quick goals from Tavares, the second one a beauty (as if he hasn’t filled the highlight reel enough). In all the Canadians scored 4 of their 5 goals (excluding the empty netters) on the powerplay. With the Canadians’ speed and tenacity it’s easy for the other team to take penalties and it occurs more often at this age because players are a little less mature and composed. James van Riemsdyk was a clear victim of this after snapping his stick after taking a slashing penalty. Not surprisingly van Riemsdyk was held off the scoresheet despite being one of the tournament’s top scorers. Even when Canada has trouble scoring, they’ve traditionally always been able to take out their opponent’s stars. This year it was holding van Riemsdyk, along with Colin Wilson (who was robbed by Tokarski when he was alone in front) off the scoresheet. Jordan Schroeder was limited to one helper. Instead I thought it was the speedy Tyler Johnson and Aaron Palushaj who were USA’s best forwards. Drayson Bowman was solid as well but I don’t feel he stepped up his play against such a tough opponent. Remember even Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin were held to moderate effectiveness in their world junior appearances against Canada.

No doubt this team is heads and shoulders above the rest of the competition, despite boasting relatively less known players like Stefan Della Rovere and Patrice Cormier, but both who are quickly making a name for themselves for their strong forecheck and physical play. Both players responded immediately when Chris Di Domenico was hit in the face by a stick when skating by the American bench. The ensuing scuffle really strained the tension between the two teams. While it can be argued that the Americans were unsportsmanlike for doing this, the same can be said for the Canadian players who rubbed it into USA a bit by skating so close by their bench. Regardless, the incident sets the stage for future Canada-USA battles, which will no doubt always be as tense, if not tenser. After an American boom with Mike Modano, USA Hockey remained quiet but have yet again returned to prominence with guys like future USA ambassador Patrick Kane leading the way in the NHL. Canada will face much tougher competition from USA in the future – sorry, USA, but you can’t deny the fact that Sweden and Russia have been better in the past 2-3 years. Clearly the player who high sticked Di Domenico was thinking about setting the stage for future battles in mind…

Ryan Ellis has been a revelation on the blueline. The diminutive 18-year old has been a force on the powerplay, and his poise with the puck is incredible. Him and PK Subban has anchored a incredible Canadian powerplay which is clicking at close to 70%. However, I think one of the bigger disappointments for this team, in my mind, is Alex Pietrangelo. The St. Louis first rounder is an excellent puck mover and I don’t think he looked too out of place in his short stint with the Blues. However, I was a little surprised when Pat Quinn named Ellis as the the top powerplay quarterback instead of Pietrangelo. Pietrangelo has been limited to the second powerplay unit and spot duty on even strength – I think a little disappointing for him and the Blues, who were no doubt expecting Pietrangelo to play a key role for Canada. I think for the Blues Pietrangelo will be a long-term project, as opposed to Erik Johnson who had a great rookie season and seemed to make the transition without much trouble.

With the win Canada advances to the semis, and will face the winner between Russia and the Czech Republic. Good luck to the boys.

Another note: I wonder if it’s a warning flag for some teams when Tavares can’t score on even strength. Sure, he broke Wayne Gretzky‘s scoring record in the OHL, but I don’t even remember Gretzky being so night and day on the powerplay or 5-on-5. He’s no doubt a top end talent, and he would be my first pick, but since Sidney Crosby a lot of Canadian kids (especially top 5 picks) have been, well, overhyped. Turris is having trouble adjusting to the NHL game and by all accounts should’ve stayed at another year in the NCAA, but I think he was rushed and it doesn’t help with the Great One throwing so much praise and support on him.

With a still ongoing investigation, it’s been reported that Alexei Cherepanov, the Rangers prospect who died tragically in October, was apparently blood doping which may have caused his death. Blood doping refers to a practise which involves boosting the number of red blood cells. Oxygen is carried in red blood cells, and increasing the number improves athletic performance, specifically, aerobic capacity.

Blood doping has become increasingly more common as sports science has progressed. First, it is quite difficult to detect, considering that one of the first methods to find evidence of doping was to look for syringes in the athletes’ homes. It was not until recently that urine was used as a sample and with it the testing for a hormone called erythropoietin (EPO). EPOs stimulates the formation of red blood cells, but excess of EPO can cause polycythemia, in which the red blood cell count becomes abnormally high and causes the blood to become quite viscous, straining the heart. This is the most likely cause, reportedly, of Cherepanov’s death, who was also suffering from myocarditis.

The hockey world is treading on ice now. I think over the past 3 years we’ve seen an abnormally high amount of heart-related deaths for well-conditioned athletes, and while a part of it is because of the strict diet and exercise regimens the athletes follow, this is a little alarming. Blood doping is hard to detect because EPO is a natural growth hormone and also because there have been numerous cases of mix-up by anti-doping agencies. Things become a little murky here because 1) the NHL and IIHF are not involved in investigations, and 2) it’s still preliminary. There hasn’t been much information released so we’ll have to sit tight and see what other things come to light in the next couple weeks and months.

Remember Dick Pound, the crazy anti-doping activist that claimed a third of all NHLers were doping? Expect him to make a return sometime soon.

Ilya Kovalchuk has been the subject of rumours for the most part of the summer, reportedly unhappy with the direction the team is going. With no bright future in sight, and with free agency looming in 2010, odds are that Kovalchuk will be leaving Atlanta soon. Rumours have somewhat quieted down, but it seems like two teams in particular, Ottawa and Edmonton, are making a strong push. Ottawa has made blockbusters with Atlanta before and there is an amount of familiarity there. Steve Tambellini, just hired a couple of months ago, could be making his mark on the Oilers squad soon, and apparently the names being tossed around are Shawn Horcoff and Andrew Cogliano.

Add Nathan Horton to the long list of players that don’t really like playing under Jacques Martin‘s management. The Panthers are hot of late, with 7 wins in their last 10, no thanks to Craig Anderson‘s strong play, but Horton, who is the new centrepiece of the Panther offense this year, has struggled and only has 6 goals this year. Relations between Martin and Horton are so strained that Horton has reportedly contemplated retirement. This is a little surprising, considering that Martin is no longer behind the bench and Horton just signed a long-term extension over the summer.

Mats Sundin is finally expected to make a decision tomorrow about his hockey career. It has all been confirmed that he will be back this season but has only 4-5 teams on his radar. Both Ontario teams have been eliminated from consideration and so have the Blackhawks after Dale Tallon confessed that he can’t create enough cap room to accomodate him. However, it has been consensus amongst hockey pundits that Sundin will most likely land in Vancouver.