Anaheim Ducks, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 comments

Burke no longer GM of Ducks?

By on November 12th, 2008

It seems that in about 20 minutes or so that the Ducks will announce that Brian Burke is no longer GM of the Ducks and that Bob Murray will take over. This isn’t really all that surprising considering that it has been rumoured for a long time that Brian Burke has a desire to work on the east coast closer to his family in Boston. Additionally, it has been rumoured for some time that Ducks ownership has had a very lucrative contract extension on the table for months now and it is likely that if Burke really wanted to stay in Anaheim he’d have signed an extension long ago.

So where does Burk end up now? Well, Toronto seems to be the likely choice if you believe all the reports that the Leafs really are waiting for someone like Burke, if not Burke himself. Plus with his good friend Ron Wilson as coach it seems to be a perfect fit. But there will be others interested in him as well. Let the rumours begin.

Anaheim Ducks, Toronto Maple Leafs Comments turned off

Leaving the Coop

By on November 12th, 2008

Brian Burke will not be returning as the Ducks’ GM next year, says ESPN. A press conference this afternoon will reveal the nature of his resignation and officially move Bob Murray, who is still at the moment the GM of the Iowa Chops, into Burke’s position. Under NHL rules a GM cannot take over another team in the same year without the former team’s blessing, and it’s been reported that Anaheim has been quite reluctant to do so.

Burke has publicly stated that family is one of the major factors in his decision, with children on the east coast from his previous marriage. Burke’s wife, reporter Jennifer Mather, was reportedly having difficulties finding work in California. A move to Toronto, as any other destination would come as a surprise, allows Burke to be closer to his children and provide new opportunities for his wife to find work.

The Ducks have the ability to prevent Burke from taking the Leafs’ GM position, but only until the summer.

More to follow.

FOLLOW UP: It seems as though Burke will stay on, and it’s not a sure fire deal that he will end up with the Leafs. There’s been speculation that Burke will stay as a consultant to Murray for the time being and then take over the Rangers after Glen Sather departs. Burke does have ties to New York, as his children from a previous marriage still reside in New England, and also previously worked for the NHL’s head office. It has also been revealed that Jim Rutherford was actually offered the Leafs job a year ago, but turned it down to stay in Carolina

With the transfer of power to Murray, you have to wonder where Dave Nonis, whom Burke hired shortly after he was fired in Vancouver, fits into the master plan. Nonis was groomed by Burke to be his successor after his departure in Vancouver, and it’s a little odd that Nonis wasn’t handed the reigns in Anaheim. Of course Murray is the more experienced of the two, but this non-move has also fueled speculation that Nonis will follow Burke to his next destination, wherever that may be.

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Hearts of Hockey

By on November 12th, 2008

The KHL is making sure another Alexei Cherepanov-like incident doesn’t happen again, and with more rigorous medical testing they’ve found 5 more players with problematic hearts.

This is a great move by the KHL and all other hockey leagues, be it minor, minor pro, or pro, need to get on this movement. The earlier the leagues can detect heart defects, the better off the league, teams, and most importantly, the player themselves, will be. It’s very unfortunate that it has taken 3 years, since the Jiri Fischer incident, for hockey officials to start taking this very seriously. Had the leagues started to look into this earlier you have to wonder if a couple lives could’ve been saved.

Other Links 4 comments

Joke Thing

By on November 10th, 2008

The NHL once again proves to the world that it’s a joke. Tom Kostopoulos was suspended 3 games starting from today for his hit on Mike Van Ryn. Van Ryn, acquired from the Panthers this year in exchange for Bryan McCabe, suffered facial lacerations, a broken nose and bone, and a concussion.

A year ago, Randy Jones hit Patrice Bergeron from behind along the end boards and Bergeron ended up missing the entire season with a concussion. The suspension? 2 games. I’ve seen the replays, and to me the hits look practically identical. A race to the puck at the end of the ice with 2 players going ahead full speed doesn’t usually end up looking too good. Mike Brophey certainly agrees and calls for harsher punishments because the lack of respect players have for each other these days. Brophey’s not directly pointing any fingers, but I think we all know where this is going.

Colin Campbell and the discipline office are a joke. If the length of a suspension is dependent on the act itself, this doesn’t make sense. If it’s dependent on the resulting injury, it makes even less sense. The fact that it’s only a one game difference makes it even more confusing. Had Kostopoulos not been suspended, or even been suspended longer than 3 games, it might’ve made more sense. There has been a complete lack of consistency when handing out suspensions, and I agree with Brophey – don’t be scared to hand out harsher punishments. A 3 game suspension is nothing over the course of an 82-game season and $900k salary (Kostopoulos loses roughly $33k).

OTR put Gary Bettman on the spot on the topic, and he had this to say:

“You know, it’s interesting to me that when we came back from the work stoppage a lot of our fans complained that we had taken the physicality out of the game by opening up the speed and skill. We didn’t do that – hitting is actually up. There are more body checks in the game than we had before the work stoppage. But if you say you can’t have contact with the head, you are going to reduce the amount of checking in the game and you are going to change the way the game is played. We don’t like any concussions. We don’t like any hits to the head, but before we run down this road, think about what the consequences to the game are going to be.”

And what are those consequences, Gary? More importantly, what are you doing to protect the players? Obviously there’s a certain amount of responsibility the players hold, but it seems like the league is preaching negligence. Bettman claims he’s opposed to change, but I guess the lockout was all for naught and NHL hockey hasn’t changed post-lockout. But then, of course, I realized the answer:

” …it’s not a question of logic.”

EDIT Nov. 12: Looks like the league is making noise already, dropping Brenden Morrow‘s suspension (and rightfully so) for instigating against the Kings and reviewing Jarkko Ruutu‘s high hit against the Habs.

Minnesota Wild, Philadelphia Flyers, Tampa Bay Lightning 1 comment

Pulling the Trigger

By on November 8th, 2008

Everyone knew that the Lightning’s defense would have a hard time keeping up with the rest of the league. After a poor offensive start, the Lightning did a little shake-up by swapping the tougher Shane O’Brien for Lukas Krajicek to get more mobile on defense. It was assumed that Andrej Meszaros, Paul Ranger, and Matt Carle, one of the key pieces in the Dan Boyle deal, would handle the puck-moving duties. However, the three of them have only combined for 9 points and a harmless -1 rating. Meszaros has yet to score this year, and Ranger and Carle both have one each. Tampa’s third-last 27 GF total is embarrassing, especially after the amount of offensive talent the Lightning horded this year – Boyle (9 points in 14 games) and the Sharks, on the other hand, have almost double that total with 50 GF.

While the problem on defense remains, it doesn’t help when your offense can’t get going either. Vinny Lecavalier has a pedestrian 10 points and Martin St. Louis has 9 – even if these two get going there’s still no indication of how well the rest of the team can do. Highly touted Steve Stamkos has started off slow, while Ryan Malone has only 3 points, all of them goals, in 12 games, and Gary Roberts has yet to register a point. Ironically, it’s Jussi Jokinen, who was planned to be dealt over the summer, and the forgotten acquisition Mark Recchi that are the ones chipping in offensively.

So, figuring that their offense requires an extra boost in (only) just 12 games, the Bolts decided to give up on the promising Carle in exchange for a chippy Steve Downie and less-mobile Steve Eminger. Eminger and Carle are both already on their second team this year. First, this is a great trade for the Flyers, because they got rid of a prospect they don’t need and who has a checkered history and a depth defenseman for a young player that could turn out to be really, really good. Carle will immediately take off some pressure off Kimmo Timonen (he’s averaging in the high-20s in ice-time) on the puck-handling duties, while I don’t really see how either Eminger or Downie are supposed to make the Lightning any better.

The Lightning are actually a modest 4-4-4 on the season, and there’s no indication that they’re in for a free fall either, considering the play of Mike Smith and how Stamkos is finally getting some quality ice-time to showcase his abilities. The only reason I can theorize is that Brian Lawton (probably under orders from Len Barrie and Oren Koules) pushed the “panic” button. There’s no upside in giving up on a young player just 12 games in to the season, especially if the players you get in return don’t have half the potential of Carle’s.

Considering how early this trade went down I would not be surprised if the Lightning made even more moves regarding their defense, but judging by their roster moves I can’t help but think the next one will be yet another sideways step. Already we’ve seen three new faces in twelve games which mathematically speaking means that we’ll be seeing 20 different defensemen to wear a Lightning jersey this year. This team needs more time to gel, and every time they acquire a new player it’ll set them back. The Lightning are becoming, if not are, the laughing stock of the league.

Congratulations to Mark Parrish, who successfully makes his comeback to the NHL with a hat trick in a 5-2 win over the Ducks. The former Minnesota forward is the second player this year (the other being, surprise, teammate Fabian Brunnstrom) to make his season debut with a hat trick. The Stars have been one of the worst teams thus far this year and scoring isn’t a problem, but if Marty Turco can’t pick up his play they’re not going anywhere fast, although it should help when Jere Lehtinen and Sergei Zubov come back later next week.

EDIT: Just giving both teams a quick cap space run through and it amazes me how Philly continues to pile on the salaries even they have less a million in cap space. How are they going to fit Carle in? Is Randy Jones headed toward the LTIR? With Carle it’d put the Flyers roughly $2m over the cap.

Anaheim Ducks, Boston Bruins, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Vancouver Canucks, Washington Capitals Comments turned off

Quick Hit Rumours

By on November 2nd, 2008

- Add a new team into the Mats Sundin sweepstakes: the Ducks. That’s right, the perpetually financially strained team is reportedly making a pitch to Sundin, and with the Ducks so close to the cap they’re going to have to shed salary (again). This time, the casualty may be Chris Kunitz, the former Ducks alternate captain who hasn’t quite lived up to his $3.5m price-tag since signing it. No doubt that the Ducks would prefer to trade Kunitz to an Eastern Conference team, but Brian Burke continues to put himself in situations in which he has absolutely no leverage – Mathieu Schneider was dealt for close to nothing, Ken Klee and Ilya Bryzgalov were lost through waivers, but the Ducks continue to spend, most recently Bret Hedican. I think Sundin is a long shot to land on the Ducks, because the Ducks’ offer won’t come close to the Canucks’ offer in terms of money and length. However, should the Ducks find themselves atop the Pacific come Christmas time (unlikely considering the way the Sharks are playing), it is a very attractive option.

- After Brendan Shanahan gave up hopes in returning to the Rangers, especially after their hot start, he’s starting to look at other options, and those teams include Philadelphia, New Jersey, Washington, Montreal, and Boston, all of them east teams, but all of them close to the cap. Colorado has also figured into the mix, and I think that’s where we may see Shanahan end up. The Avs have always been an enticing franchise for veteran free agents to play for, and although that may not be the case these days, don’t forget that the Avs still have Joe Sakic, who still has a considerable amount of pull, and the two played together at Salt Lake.

- The Jackets have tried everything, including moving Rick Nash to centre during practise, but it still hasn’t ignited a potentially high-octane offense. Since the first days of the franchise the team has always lacked a playmaking centre for Nash to play with, even though RJ Umberger (I predicted he would be a bust alongside Nash) and Kristian Huselius were signed, it still didn’t work. Derick Brassard is playing well, but he’s not quite ready for number one centre duties yet. This has prompted the Jackets to revive their search for a number one centre… and I don’t think it’s going to happen this year.

- Nikolai Khabibulin is making a strong case for himself to stay, and the Hawks must be giddy about his rising stock. The Hawks seem to be fairing well with both Khabibulin and Cristobal Huet, which means that another $6m on the Hawks’ roster, Martin Havlat, could be out the door instead. The injury-prone winger will be an UFA this summer, which makes him an attractive trade bait, especially if (a big one at that) he manages to stay healthy at least until the trade deadline.

- Mathieu Garon is also playing fairly well, despite the Oilers’ recent cold streak. There haven’t been any public grumblings from Dwayne Roloson, but it’s common knowledge that the 39-year old veteran doesn’t like playing second fiddle. There have been, unsurprisingly, no takers so far, and it’ll be a long season for Roloson from the bench. The Oilers are eager to get Roloson’s $3.667m cap hit off their books, paving the way for Jeff Deslauriers to handle backup duties full-time.

Rumours courtesy of Bruce Garrioch from the Ottawa Sun.

Minnesota Wild, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals 3 comments

Thoughts…

By on October 31st, 2008

1 – Alexander Semin had some choice words for the NHL’s poster boy, Sidney Crosby. The Caps forward is off to a hot start and with the team being hailed as favourites to win their division again, didn’t hold back any punches. In short, Semin believes Crosby’s overrated – and that Chicago’s Patrick Kane is the superior player. He believes that stats, in particular Crosby’s, have made him out to be a better player than he actually is. I’m never turned off by some good sound bytes, but this sort of personal trash talk doesn’t really stoke any fires for the Pens-Caps rivalry, and I also believe that the Caps needs to reach the finals before they say anything more.

2 – Adam Proteau at THN thinks Gary Bettman needs to go. I agree… as do many others. Does Bettman?

3 – I think Doug Weight‘s hit on Brandon Sutter was clean. I don’t think Weight had any other choice than to lay him out – if he hadn’t it would’ve created an offensive rush for the Canes. Sutter’s concussion was unfortunate, and I hate to say it, but it was his fault. He had his head down in a prone position, reaching for the puck in the neutral zone. What did he think was going to happen? The players have to protect themselves – I don’t think there’s an easier way to put it, and getting rid of the instigator rule is a step in the right direction.

4 – Marian Gaborik‘s been a staple in the rumour mill since the end of last year. However, despite losing him to injury, the Wild are 6-2-1 and at the top of their division… which makes you really wonder if Gaborik is worth the reported $85-100 million the Wild have apparently offered him. There’s no mistake that Gaborik’s a world-class player, and even though I am attributing Antti Miettinen‘s recent scoring surge as a flash in the pan, I don’t think the Wild need him, especially at that price. Jacques Lemaire plays a system that doesn’t require a bona fide offensive player, although it is nice to have one. The Wild are just as happy winning games 2-1 than 6-1. Gaborik has proven himself to be injury-prone and seems to be intent on testing the waters on the market, and if that is indeed the case the Wild should just trade him.

Other Links 13 comments

Leafs bloggers respond to being called losers

By on October 31st, 2008

Toronto Maple Leaf fans across the blogosphere are responding to a recent Howard Berger post in which he called Leaf fans ‘losers’. In a coordinated response several Leaf related blogs have responded with the following post:

Dear Most Valuable Losers

Yesterday, continuing a long-standing trend, another Toronto reporter took his shot at Leaf fans. This time it was Howard Berger calling us “losers” but we’ve seem the same cookie-cutter article before from virtually everyone who covers the team.

Quite frankly, we’ve had enough.

As fans, we believe that those most deserving of our praise and our scorn are directly inolved in the game, whether it’s on the ice, in the press box or in the executive corridors. Fans don’t pencil in the starting five, make bad trades, or write the headlines of the day and shouldn’t be blamed (or praised) for the totals in the wins and loss column.

Hockey may be just a game but it’s also a passion. If you’re looking for passionate hockey coverage that offers insight and humour and you’re sick of being blamed for supporting a team you’re passionate about, you have a better option.

It’s time to leave the media superstars behind. There’s compelling, timely, wide-ranging content waiting just for you online in the Barilkosphere.

Many have found this better way of following the Leafs, but not every Leafs fan has been so lucky. Please send this message to your fellow Leaf fans via e-mail or postings on message boards and let them know that they do have a choice.

We hope you’ll join us here in the Barilkosphere and become regular readers.

I have been very critical of the media from time to time in the past but this is one of the first real coordinated responses to the media. It’ll be interesting to see how it develops and whether Howard Berger posts a counter response.

Business of Hockey, David Johnson 3 comments

League Revenues, the Loonie and the Salary Cap

By on October 29th, 2008

On Monday NHL Players Associations Executive Director Paul Kelly was on Prime Time Sports with Bob McCown discussing several topics but of particular interest was the light he shed on NHL revenues, the contribution of Canadian teams to those revenues, and the impact of the Canadian dollar on those revenues. You can listen to the complete interview but let me summarize.

He stated that 27% of all league revenues are generated by the 6 Canadian NHL franchises and that of the 12% revenue growth the league saw last season, one quarter, or approximately 3% growth, was attributed to the rise in the Canadian dollar. This to me was the clearest statement I have heard from anyone in regards to the percentage of league revenues generated by Canadian teams and the extent of impact it had on the league wide revenue. He went on to say that the rise in the Canadian dollar contributed approximately $75 million to league revenue increase in 2007-08 over 2006-07.

From these numbers, which I believe are pretty accurate, and with the salary cap numbers, which we know exactly, we can estimate what actual league revenues over the past two seasons.

The 2008-09 salary cap was set at $56.7 million which according to the CBA is $8 million above the ‘midpoint’ which is what is calculated from 2007-08 league revenues plus 5%. Crunching the numbers we get $56.7 million less $8 million less 5% multiplied by 30 teams gives us $1391 million, which is what the 2007-08 players share of revenue should have been. This would then put the total league revenues at approximately $2.62 billion. Doing the same calculations for the 2006-07 season I have calculated the 2006-07 total league revenue to be $2.32 billion.

From those numbers we can determine that league revenues rose $300 million from 2006-07 to 2007-08 which is a 12.9% increase in revenues which seems a bit higher than Paul Kelly’s statement of 12% revenue increase but the rise of $300 million matches exactly with his claim that the rise in the Canadian dollar accounted for 25% of the increase in revenue as 25% of $300 million is $75 million. I haven’t seen or heard any firm numbers but rumours were that last years revenue was in the $2.6 billion range so my numbers seem reasonable.

It should be noted that in calculating the salary cap the formula takes into account player benefit costs. I do not know what the player benefit costs are but I estimated them based on a sample formula found in the CBA and scaled it at the same rate of increase as player compensation which may or may not be correct and may lead to some of the disparity with the numbers.

So, what does all this mean looking forward and how much the salary cap be affected? Lets take a few scenarios while assuming that the Canadian-US dollar exchange rate for the 2007-08 season was parity (i.e. one Canadian dollar equals one U.S. dollar) and that the players choose to adjust upward the salary cap by 5% for the 2009-10 season.

Scenario: The Canadian dollar drops to an average of $0.80 US while there is an across the board revenue increase of 5% not accounting for the exchange rate. Based on this scenario, the Canadian portion of revenue would be cut by 20% from the dollar and then increased by 5% for estimated revenue growth while the U.S. revenues would simply increase by 5%. Under this scenario total league revenues would be $2.602 billion or a drop of about .67%. This would result in the salary cap dropping slightly to $56.5 million per team.

Here are some other scenarios.

Exchange
Rate 		Revenue
Growth		 Estimated
Revenue 		Estimated
Salary Cap
0.75 3% 2.516 54.5
0.75 5% 2.565 55.6
0.75 7% 2.614 56.7
0.75 9% 2.663 57.9
0.80 3% 2.553 55.3
0.80 5% 2.602 56.5
0.80 7% 2.652 57.6
0.80 9% 2.702 58.7
0.85 3% 2.589 56.2
0.85 5% 2.64 57.3
0.85 7% 2.69 58.5
0.85 9% 2.74 59.5
0.90 3% 2.626 57
0.90 5% 2.676 58.2
0.90 7% 2.728 59.3
0.90 9% 2.779 60.3

Revenues are in Billions of dollars and salary cap is in Millions of dollars.

If my projections are accurate, so long as the league can increase revenues (not including currency factors) then the salary cap isn’t likely to be impacted negatively in any significant way and could increase by a couple million dollars if the Canadian dollar rebounds measurably (it has jumped a couple of cents today). But in a worst case scenario where the league cannot grow at the same pace as it has and the Canadian dollar remains where it is today the salary cap is likely to fall by up to a couple million dollars.

In the Paul Kelly interview there were a couple of other tidbits that I found interesting and might signal the direction the players want to go in future CBA negations. When asked if he thought the NHL-NHLPA is really in a partnership he responded “I think it is clear the answer to that is no.” He went on to say “It would be a fallacy to call it a partnership because we don’t have an equal voice on a number of issues.” He mentioned expansion and re-location of franchises as a couple of examples where the players have no input. Expect this to be a bargaining point or a bargaining chip during the next CBA negotiation.

When discussing expansion and relocation he praised RIM CEO Jim Balsillie and stated that having someone like him and his wealth in the NHL would be a positive but also mentioned that he believes that there are people within the NHL that do not want him to be a part of the league. Paul Kelly was also very positive and receptive to the idea of having another NHL team in Toronto or southern Ontario and eluded to the fact that he thinks the Toronto area could probably support 3 teams.

It’ll be interesting to see how the NHL-NHLPA relationship develops over the next year or two but it is becoming clear to me that the next great battle might the players to push for expanding the ‘partnership’ beyond just revenue sharing but into all areas of revenue development including franchise relocation and expansion.

Other Links 3 comments

Man Down

By on October 26th, 2008

For those of you who don’t know already, one of the world’s most popular blogs, “Covered in Oil,” will be inactive for an indefinite amount of time. Known as “DMFB,” on his site, Dave Berry was employed to cover the Oilers and get a quote or two after the games. He was given a pass into the press box, and to break up the monotony of the game, he does live web-blog coverages, until he was informed by an Oilers official that he was not allowed to do so and will have his press pass revoked. You can read the entire (ridiculous) account here.

I think what the Oilers did to Berry was complete bull. I don’t think I can sum it up any better than that. If the mainstream media (the papers, magazines, radio, and TV) continues to be so fearful of change and evolving technology I don’t think this will be the last incident until some rules are made clear. Tom Benjamin and Matt Fenwick think the Oilers do have grounds to ask Berry to leave, but only because the Luddite Oilers, as a business, are protecting their interests.

As bloggers we’re separate from the influence of corporate and commercial identities, which makes our writings as good, if not better, than some of the mainstream media out there. Bloggers have been regularly criticized for their (un)accountability, but as long as we have readers and users who leave comments that will never be the case. I don’t think it’s completely a stretch to even say that perhaps we’re more accountable than mainstream media, if only because we don’t have ties to any corporate sponsors or employers. The bias in our blogs is inherently different than those who are officially employed by a team or the NHL to cover games (have you ever noticed how boring NHL.com blogs are?).

Going back to Berry, I think it’s quite universal that everyone feels bad for him (except, perhaps, the Oilers). I alo think it is completely unfair that his pass was revoked because he didn’t let the Oilers know that he was doing a live blog. What’s stopping a guy from bringing his laptop to games and doing a live blog in the stands? What are the paranoid Oilers so afraid of? I think in an increasingly integrating society, especially technologically, any blow to the blogosphere is a blow to the fans.

Berry leaves us with this final thought…

“At the same time, though, it would be disingenuous for me to say that this was the sole reason why I’m taking an extended hiatus. Truthfully, there’s a lot about the professional sports world that bothers me that really came into focus during this whole thing. I could list examples, but basically it all boils down to the fact that I’m uncomfortable with the amount of attention paid to what are basically games, and I no longer want to be a part of it. I don’t want to tell anyone how to spend their free time, but the fact simple entertainment has grown to this level of import bothers me too much to continue with it.”

It seems to me that the Oilers are more interested in other things than their fanbase.