Second, thanks for putting something in perspective that I had a gut feeling about all along. People keep talking about the Carter trade being the reason for the Kings’ post-trade-deadline success. However, I think it’s actuall the Johnson trade that did it, which allowed the highly-skilled Voynov to emerge.

People will still deny how bad JMFJ is because he had a Kool-Aide-esque fanbase. But there is such a large discrepancy between him and the other defensemen. Having said all that, I think JMFJ has the skill set to improve.

http://theleafsnation.com/2012/3/5/who-made-who-kessel-and-lupul

The reality is shots within 10 seconds of a face off are easier to save. Every goalie in the league has a higher save percentage on these shots than shots that occur more than 10 seconds after the face off.

The other reality is that there is a huge discrepancy among goalies in the percentage of shots they face that occur within 10 seconds of a face off. So, for a goalie that faces a high percentage of such shots they will have a higher percentage of easy shots faced and for those goalies that face a low percentage of such shots will have a higher percentage of tough shots faced. This will have an impact on a goalies save percentage that has nothing to do with the goalies individual talent level.

Those are the facts. There are a number of ways to deal with those facts and one such way is to not consider the type of shots that results in the bias or unfairness as I have done. Hockey stats guys do this all the time when they consider even strength save percentage instead of overall save percentage because it has been shown that shots faced while short handed (i.e. shots taken by the team on the power play) are tougher to save. My goal is to do the best I can to compare goalies under similar circumstances the best I can and to do so I need to some how eliminate the 10 seconds after face off shot difficulty bias.

And this sort of thing is why people don’t take stats only analysis of players seriously. You completely discount a viable hockey play to change the numbers to prove your point.

I have a lower opinion of Luongo than you so I am not even saying this to defend him.

First: lets compare Lui to Lundqvist (the best goalie over this time period?)

7th, 15th, 16th, 17, 12
only once in top ten & ave 13.2
Lui ave 15th

Not a huge difference? Would Lundqvist be worth it?
Not much to choose (using yr method) btw top goalie and “middle of the road”

Also, Lundqvist playoff record is much worse than Lui

Before this year, Lui has been the most valuable to his team in playoffs since lockout

His goal support in playoffs is a ridiculous ~2.38
Thomas Fleury 3.1+

check full post /arguments here:
http://www.nucksmisconduct.com/2012/3/23/2884880/behind-the-numbers-playoff-goaltending

also, there is issue of shot quality Since 2008 Lui has played behind much worse defence and a team that is constantly looking to score
for example Ken K. found in 2010 report (below)
Vancovuer 5th worst?

http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/SQ-RS0910-Krzywicki.pdf

Lui can play 60+ games each and every season and maintain solid/consistent numbers
for most non-playoff teams this is 10-12 points
the differnce btw missing and making playoffs
With the east being as weak as it is one could easily see Lui taking TB or even Toronto to 2 or 3 rounds worth $$ to a team like toronto.

His age is an issue but he is very hard worker and I feel a team would get 4-5 years of value.