TOI% Correlations with Rel Stats

Yesterday I looked at what statistics TOI% correlates with which will give us an indication of how coaches distribute ice time to their players. It has occurred to me that TOI% is really a “Rel” statistic in the sense that TOI% gets handed out to players based on how the players compare to the rest of the team and not the rest of the league. So, in comparing TOI% to overall stats such as GF%, CF%, Sh% I am not really comparing apples to oranges. TOI% is a statistic relative to the players teammates while those other stats are relative to

» Read more

What else does TOI% correlate with?

A few days ago I wrote a post looking at whether scoring chances and high danger scoring chances does a very good job at explaining variations in on-ice shooting percentages among NHL forwards. The short answer is that they do explain some of it (scoring chances better than high danger scoring chances) but is still a long way from being an ideal explanatory variable. We know that because I found that TOI% (the percentage of ice time the coach assigns to the player) had a far better correlation with shooting percentages. In this post I want to take a look

» Read more

Evaluating SCF and HSCF and our ability to quantify shot quality

This past season War on Ice introduced two new shot quality metrics – Scoring Chances (SC) and High Danger Scoring Chances (HSC) which are defined here.  Stephen Burtch has previously evaluated this scoring chances with respect to their ability to predict future goal scoring and goal differentials and found them to be a better predictor than traditional possession statistics. As a strong believer in shot quality I am not surprised by this conclusion but with this post I want to take a closer look at really how well these metrics are at measuring shot quality. The premise underlying this analysis is

» Read more

Persistence of Sv%RelTM and failure of statistical models in hockey analytics

Over the last several days I have tweeted several times (here, here and here) about my Sv%RelTM statistic which can be found on Puckalytics.com which generated some interest from my followers as well as some skeptics.   Seen Sv% rel team thrown out a few times in the past couple days–hoping to get a chance to dig into it more later this week, but an initial — Jason (@Jay32600) June 1, 2015 Obviously this is a miniture sample so I’m hoping to do multi year later this week, but I’m skeptical of the usefullness. — Jason (@Jay32600) June 1, 2015 The

» Read more

Is Hockey Analytics altering outcomes yet?

Hockey analytics is well behind analytics in other sports, particularly baseball, but we are now several years into what I will call modern (or current) hockey analytics which has largely focused on possession statistics such as Corsi and Fenwick. Last summer we even saw a number of teams publicly adopt analytics by picking up some prominent people from the public domain. Toronto, Edmonton, Carolina, Florida, and New Jersey to name a few. Results for those teams have clearly been mixed thus far but the greater question is whether hockey analytics, and possession analytics in particular, has had a greater impact on

» Read more

Is 4v4 overtime hockey a crap shoot we can or should ignore?

Since the Los Angeles Kings have been eliminated from the playoffs there has been a lot of discussion about why a team with such a good possession game failed to make the playoffs. This included my article from yesterday which generated a fair amount of discussion as well. A lot of the discussion can be summarized by the following tweet by Sunil Agnihotri referencing a comment by Walter Foddis. Nice summary by @Waltlaw69 on why the Kings missed the playoffs. You can imagine the flak he got on FB. pic.twitter.com/O7GVCdbh2p — Sunil Agnihotri (@sunilagni) April 13, 2015 The last paragraph

» Read more

Kings, Flames, Avalanche and Possession Analytics

The other day I posted the following twitter comment after the Flames defeated the Kings to gain a playoff position while simultaneously eliminating the reigning Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings from the playoffs. In the hockey analytics ledger be sure to add #Flames in playoffs and #Kings out to the “what possession analytics didn’t predict” column. — David Johnson (@hockeyanalysis) April 10, 2015 I posted this comment for two reasons. First because I think if you are being honest about evaluating possession analytics you have to consider the failures on an equal ground as the successes. I am certain

» Read more

Zone starts and impact on players statistics

The other day on twitter I was called out by Sam Ventura who does some great work on war-on-ice.com. Specifically he did not like my article on zone starts that I wrote the other day. The second article is this, which I fundamentally disagree with on so many levels: http://t.co/IVoAOqkxAi — Sam Ventura (@stat_sam) March 18, 2015 First, let’s throw numbers and data out entirely and just focus on the issue at hand, in the context of a hockey game… — Sam Ventura (@stat_sam) March 18, 2015 Does where the faceoff takes place have an affect on how likely each

» Read more

Zone Starts, Corsi, and the Percentages

Matthew Coller has an interesting article on Puck Prospectus about Shea Weber and his poor Relative Corsi. His conclusion was that Weber’s poor Relative Corsi is largely due to his playing time with Paul Gaustad in which he posted a very poor CF% along with having a very heavy defensive zone start. His conclusion was that Weber’s poor Corsi with Gaustad is in a significant way caused by the heavy defensive zone start bias. This is a case of correlation not causation as I outlined in the comment section of that article. I recommend you take the time to read both the article

» Read more

The Coaching-Corsi dilemma

The other day I wrote about Bozak-Corsi dilemma which basically goes as follows: The coaching change in Toronto from Carlyle to Horachek resulted in Tyler Bozak and the rest of the Leafs top line posting dramatically improved Corsi (5v5 tied CF%). Does this mean Bozak et al. suddenly got good or does it mean that Corsi is largely driven by playing style which one can change and thus the value of Corsi in player evaluation is greatly minimized. Today I will look at the rest of the Leafs 5v5 Tied CF% from Carlyle to Horachek as well as three other

» Read more
1 2 3 4 5 6 34