Offense doesn't win in the playoffs…

With just one series remaining to be won in the second round there have been 11 playoff series won so far in these playoffs so I decided to take a look at which teams won those playoff series and the results seem to be quite telling. The team that had the better regular season goals against average has won 7 of the 11 playoff series and lost 4 of them. The team that had the better regular season save percentage has won 6 series and lost 3 while two series featured teams with nearly identical save percentages (PHI-PIT, LA-VAN). Most

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Zone Start effects on Goalie Save Percentage

While doing my earlier post on Luongo’s value I noticed that Luongo’s 5v5close zone start adjusted save percentage relative to the rest of the league is much more mediocre than his 5v5 save percentage.  I decide to look into this further and realized that this is in large part due to zone start effects, and not score effects.  This got me to look into zone start effects on a goalies save percentage further. I previously wrote an article where I described a simple and straight forward for adjusting for zone starts.  Basically you can fully account for zone start effects by

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Should anyone want Luongo?

One of the most significant stories of the first round of the playoffs is the early departure of the Vancouver Canucks and the resulting question mark surrounding Roberto Luongo’s future with the Canucks.  With young super prospect Cory Schneider out playing Luongo for arguably the second straight playoff it puts Luongo’s future with the Canucks in doubt.  As of now it seems apparent that Luongo is looking for a new start and the Canucks organization is probably looking more to Schneider than Luongo as their goalie of the future.  There is a lot of speculation about which teams might be

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On-ice shooting percentage is sustainable…

Prior to the season Gabe Desjardins and I had a conversation over at MC79hockey.com where I predicted several players would combine for a 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage above 10.0% while league average is just shy of 8.0%.  I documented this in a post prior to the season.  In short, I predicted the following: Crosby, Gaborik, Ryan, St. Louis, H. Sedin, Toews, Heatley, Tanguay, Datsyuk, and Nathan Horton will have a combined on-ice shooting percentage above 10.0% Only two of those 10 players will have an on-ice shooting percentage below 9.5% So, how did my prediction fair?  The following table tells all. Player

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State of the Leafs – Defense and Goaltending

Last week I took a look at the Leafs forwards, today I’ll take a look at their defense and goaltending.  As with the forwards, I’ll evaluate the defensemen using their 5v5 zone start adjusted HARO+, HARD+ and HART+ ratings but with goalies I will evaluate them using their 5v5 zone start adjusted HARD+ rating and save percentage.  I have included the past 5 individual seasons as well as the most recent 3 year rating and 5 year rating.  Personally, I like to use 3 year ratings as the best guide for player value as it gives a large sample size

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Head shots and player safety…

We are less than a week into the playoffs and it seems the main story line of the playoffs so far has been head shots and general player safety whether it was the Shea Weber non-suspension or the number of dangerous hits and other ‘goonery’ that took place last night and it probably all started with the hit and concussion suffered by Daniel Sedin a couple weeks ago. For me, I find the whole player safety debate interesting because it seems the most silent group in the debate is the players.  There is a lot of media outrage against head hits

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State of the Leafs – Forwards

With the Maple Leafs season having ended early once again a it is time to take an honest and unbiased look at what the team has and what the team needs to get to improve.  This will be a multi-post endeavour that will start with this post which will be a statistical evaluation of the Leafs forwards.  Included in each players evaluation is a table of their 5v5 zone start adjusted HARO+, HARD+ and HART+ ratings over the past 5 seasons (where available) as well as 3 and 5 year ratings.  These ratings provide an unbiased zone start, quality of teammate

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Thoughts on Burke press conference

Just listened to the Brian Burke press conference and I have to say it was a whole lot of nothing.  I’ll give Burke this summer to make some changes but based on that press conference I don’t have a lot of confidence in his assessment of the team. He talked a lot about how everything was fine with the club on February 6th before things unexpectedly fell apart.  Well, in reality it wasn’t that unexpected.  They had a good record from January 1st through February 6th but in that stretch only 6 of their 15 games were against teams that

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NHL Award Winners – Statistically Speaking

Here is my take on the major NHL awards from a statistical point of view.  To determine which players will get consideration an award I took a look at their 5v5 zone start adjusted HART+ and FenHART+ ratings.  These ratings are based on goal and fenwick stats respectively and take into consideration quality of teammates and quality of opposition.  To be considered, a player needs to rank highly in both. Norris Trophy The following table is the top 15 defensemen in my HART+ ranking system along with their FenHART+ rank.  Only defensemen with 1000 minutes are considered. Defenseman HARO+ HARD+

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How things have changed…

As we approach the end of the 2011-12 NHL regular season there will be a lot of analysis and looking back at the past seasons for the Leafs and then looking forward to the off season and beyond but before I get into that, I wanted to reflect how Leaf fans were feeling just one short year ago. A good starting point for that reflection would be Michael Langlois’ “10 reasons why Leaf fans can feel either encouraged or discouraged” post.  Let’s take a look at some of the reasons for optimism Michael pointed out and how we might feel

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