Post Lockout Team Save Percentages

Looking at this chart, I think only Lightning fans can sympathize with the torture that Leaf fans have suffered through with regards to their goaltending, but at least the Lightning have made the playoffs a few times and even had some success. Update:  For interest sake, here are the post lockout shooting percentages and PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage).    

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Downie trade good for Stastny/Duchene?

Steve Downie was traded from the Tampa Bay Lightning to the Colorado Avalanche today for Kyle Quincey (who was later shipped to Detroit).  I featured Downie in a post I wrote on the weekend about mixing toughness with skill and how having a big, physical winger can make a skilled center more productive, especially a smaller skilled center.  Downie did this with Stamkos, St. Louis and to a lesser extent with Lecavalier.  The beneficiary of Downie’s toughness in Colorado will be either Paul Stastny or Matt Duchene. Until last years trade deadline Stastny played with another big, physical winger named

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Zone Starts: Why We Shouldn't Care

There was a twitter conversation between Gabe Desjardins and David Staples last night in which Gabe suggested that Daniel Sedin’s heavy offensive zone start bias resulted in an additional 7-9 points that he would not have gotten if his zone starts were more evenly split between offensive and defensive zone.  When I saw this I immediately though that seemed like a really high number so I decided to take a look though the play by play sheets and see how many of Daniel Sedin’s even strength points came from a faceoff in the offensive zone.  Of all of Daniel Sedin’s

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Mixing in toughness with skill.

The other day at Pension Plan Puppets there was a discussion about the merit so Steve Downie and whether the Leafs should go after him if Tampa made him available.   In it I brought up the fact that when Steven Stamkos or Martin St. Louis or Vincent Lecavalier play with Downie their offensive numbers increase, sometimes dramatically.  The following table shows each players goals for per 20 minutes of ice time in 5v5 zone-start adjusted situations with and without Steve Downie on the ice with them. Teammate With Without % Impr. 2011-12 Stamkos 1.481 1.19 24.5% St. Louis 1.441

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What is Rick Nash?

So word has come out over the last day that Rick Nash is, at least on some level, available in a trade from the Blue Jackets.  So, the question is, who is Rick Nash and would you want him on your team? Nash has been a Blue Jacket from the day he was drafted first overall in 2002.  He has played 648 regular season games and has scored 277 goals and 527 points.  Since the lockout he is 10th in goals (only Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, Heatley, Iginla, Staal, Lecavalier, Marleau, Vanek and Hossa) and 25 in points.  He has a pair

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Defenders effect on Save %

It has been shown on numerous occasions that players can influence their own teams on-ice shooting percentage be that through their talents or their style of play.  An example is the PDO vs Luck article I posted the other day.  In that article there is a table that clearly shows that shooting percentage varies across players and that players who are given more ice time (presumably because they are better players) have higher shooting percentages.  The same was not true for on-ice save percentage though.  On-ice save percentages were not ‘stratified’ according to ice time. That study looked at forwards and I

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Thoughts on PDO and Luck

One of my beefs in the analysis and evaluation of hockey players is the notion that PDO (on-ice shooting percentage plus on-ice save percentage) can be used as a proxy for luck.  A perfect example of how PDO is used as a proxy for luck is this article by Neil Greenberg about the Washington Capitals. For example, when Alex Ovechkin has been on the ice during even strength this season, the team has a shooting percentage of 8.2 percent and has saved shots at a rate of .917. So that makes his PDO value 999 (.082+.917=.999), which is almost exactly

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Zone Start Effects on Stats

Over the past week or so I have talked about a simple and straight forward method for taking into account variations in zone starts.  The method is to simply ignore the 10 seconds following an offensive or defensive face off.  By adjusting for zone starts in this manner we can see a fairly significant impact on stats and today I’ll take a look at what gets impacted and how. To do this I took a look at 3 year data using the 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons.  Using 5v5 data for players with at least 1000 minutes of ice time

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Stats.hockeyanalysis.com updated

Just wanted to let you know that I have finally updated stats.hockeyanalysis.com to include 2011-12 data though I have not yet included multi-year data that includes 2011-12. I have also included in this updated zone start adjusted data which adjusts for zone starts by not considering the 10 seconds following an offensive/defensive zone faceoff.  I have included both 5v5 and 5v5 zone start adjusted data and the 5v5 close, 5v5 tied, 5v5 up 1, 5v5 up 2+, 5v5 down 1 and 5v5 down 2 data are zone start adjusted.  It doesn’t make any sense to zone start adjust PP and

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Corsi vs Shooting %: Gomez vs Cammalleri

I have been having a discussion as to whether shot quality exists over at Pension Plan Puppets and more precisely whether certain players can drive a teams shooting percentage while they are on the ice.  As part of the discussion I brought up the on-ice shooting percentage differences between Scott Gomez and Michael Cammalleri and decided that it would be useful to present that comparison as a post here. First off, let me define shot quality as how I see it.  Shot quality is an ability for players to systematically drive (or suppress) shooting percentages when they are on the ice.

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