Zone Start Effects on Stats

Over the past week or so I have talked about a simple and straight forward method for taking into account variations in zone starts.  The method is to simply ignore the 10 seconds following an offensive or defensive face off.  By adjusting for zone starts in this manner we can see a fairly significant impact on stats and today I’ll take a look at what gets impacted and how. To do this I took a look at 3 year data using the 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons.  Using 5v5 data for players with at least 1000 minutes of ice time

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Stats.hockeyanalysis.com updated

Just wanted to let you know that I have finally updated stats.hockeyanalysis.com to include 2011-12 data though I have not yet included multi-year data that includes 2011-12. I have also included in this updated zone start adjusted data which adjusts for zone starts by not considering the 10 seconds following an offensive/defensive zone faceoff.  I have included both 5v5 and 5v5 zone start adjusted data and the 5v5 close, 5v5 tied, 5v5 up 1, 5v5 up 2+, 5v5 down 1 and 5v5 down 2 data are zone start adjusted.  It doesn’t make any sense to zone start adjust PP and

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Corsi vs Shooting %: Gomez vs Cammalleri

I have been having a discussion as to whether shot quality exists over at Pension Plan Puppets and more precisely whether certain players can drive a teams shooting percentage while they are on the ice.  As part of the discussion I brought up the on-ice shooting percentage differences between Scott Gomez and Michael Cammalleri and decided that it would be useful to present that comparison as a post here. First off, let me define shot quality as how I see it.  Shot quality is an ability for players to systematically drive (or suppress) shooting percentages when they are on the ice.

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Evaluating the Leafs Defensemen

With the re-signing of John-Michael Liles the Leafs now have an abundance of defensemen signed under control for a number of years, many with big dollar contracts too.  We all have our varying opinions on the relative values of each of these defensemen but I thought it would be an appropriate time to take a closer look at them statistically. Offensively 2011-12 HARO+ 2010-11 HARO+ 2010-12 HARO+ 2011-12 FenHARO+ 2010-11 FenHARO+ 2010-12 FenHARO+ JOHN-MICHAEL LILES 1.23 1.03 1.11 0.96 0.99 1.00 CODY FRANSON 1.20 1.06 1.10 1.05 1.05 1.03 LUKE SCHENN 1.10 1.08 1.08 0.85 1.02 0.99 DION PHANEUF 1.01

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Importance of Quality of Competition/Teammates

Whenever I get into a statistical debate over which player might be better than another the inevitable argument that comes up is “yeah, but player A plays against tougher competition and gets tougher assignments” which is a valid argument to make.  But how valid?  The other day I looked at a simple, straight forward method for accounting for zone start differences (which can be significant) and today I thought I’d take a look at quality of teammates and quality of competition. Whenever I browse through my stats.hockeyanalysis.com site or in my own database I have always been curious about the general lack

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Adjusting for Zone Starts

One of the biggest omissions in my player rankings is making adjustments for zone start differences.  We know that Manny Malhotra has a significant bias towards starting his shifts in the defensive zone and that his teammates Daniel and Henrik Sedin have a significant bias towards starting their shifts in the offensive zone.  The result is Malhotra will unfairly be penalized for giving up more shots and goals against simply because he starts more often in the defensive zone and the Sedins have a huge advantage in generating shots and goals because of how often they start their shifts in the offensive

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State of Brian Burke's Leafs

Brian Burke joined the Leafs in November of 2008.  When he joined the Leafs he insisted he has no interest in a 5 year rebuild and expected he could make the team competitive much sooner.  Let’s evaluate how Burke has done in his tenure as GM of the Maple Leafs. 2007-08 2011-12 GAA 3.08 (27th) 3.03 (27th) SV% 89.3 (29th) 90.1 (24th) GFA 2.74 (11th) 2.98 (6th) PP 17.8% (15th) 20.6% (4th) PK 78.0% (30th) 74.4% (30th) Points 83 (12th in east) 89 (projected, 9th) Their overall offense is slightly better but their defense is the same sad defense we

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History of Poor Defensive Teams making Playoffs

Not sure what led me to look into this but I took a look at poor defensive teams making the playoffs in the eastern conference.  Over the past 3 seasons there have been just 6 teams to make the playoffs in the eastern conference with goals against averages greater than 2.80.  They are: Tampa Bay Lightning (2010-11):  2.80 Ottawa Senators (2009-10): 2.80 Pittsburgh Penguins (2009-10):  2.82 Montreal Canadiens (2008-09): 2.88 Washington Capitals (2008-09):  2.89 Ottawa Senators (2007-08): 2.92 Over the past 4 seasons there have been a total of 26 teams with gaa’s above 2.80 and just 6 of those

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Schenn vs Van Riemsdyk: Do you make the trade?

There has been a lot of talk over the last 24 hours about the possibility of the Maple Leafs trading Luke Schenn to the Philadelphia Flyers for James van Riemsdyk?  Personally, I’d seriously consider it and probably do it, but lets take a look at the numbers. Luke Schenn HARO+ HARD+ FenHARO+ FenHARD+ Ozone% 2011-12 1.19 0.85 0.94 0.83 45.7% 2010-11 1.05 0.89 1.02 0.94 51.1% 2009-10 1.19 0.85 1.05 0.96 51.7% 2008-09 0.97 0.82 1.06 0.89 53.2% For those who don’t know what these numbers are they are my all-encompassing (mostly) hockey rating stats.  HARO stands for Hockey Analysis Rating

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Tim Thomas vs Tuukka Rask

There is a post over at Backhand Shelf today that lists 10 backup goalies that have out performed their #1 counterparts.  It is an interesting read but it may be a perfect example of how simple statistics don’t tell the whole story. The first pair of goalies on the list are the Bruins Tukka Rask vs Tim Thomas. Backup: Tuukka Rask (10-4-1, 1.59 GAA, .945 SV%) Starter: Tim Thomas (17-7-0, 1.99 GAA, .938 SV%) Now both goalies have exceptionally good numbers but on the surface you would probably conclude that Rask has superior numbers to Thomas and on the surface

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