One of my beefs in the analysis and evaluation of hockey players is the notion that PDO (on-ice shooting percentage plus on-ice save percentage) can be used as a proxy for luck. A perfect example of how PDO is used as a proxy for luck is this article by Neil Greenberg about the Washington Capitals. [...]
Over the past week or so I have talked about a simple and straight forward method for taking into account variations in zone starts. The method is to simply ignore the 10 seconds following an offensive or defensive face off. By adjusting for zone starts in this manner we can see a fairly significant impact [...]
Just wanted to let you know that I have finally updated stats.hockeyanalysis.com to include 2011-12 data though I have not yet included multi-year data that includes 2011-12. I have also included in this updated zone start adjusted data which adjusts for zone starts by not considering the 10 seconds following an offensive/defensive zone faceoff. I [...]
I have been having a discussion as to whether shot quality exists over at Pension Plan Puppets and more precisely whether certain players can drive a teams shooting percentage while they are on the ice. As part of the discussion I brought up the on-ice shooting percentage differences between Scott Gomez and Michael Cammalleri and decided [...]
With the re-signing of John-Michael Liles the Leafs now have an abundance of defensemen signed under control for a number of years, many with big dollar contracts too. We all have our varying opinions on the relative values of each of these defensemen but I thought it would be an appropriate time to take a [...]
Whenever I get into a statistical debate over which player might be better than another the inevitable argument that comes up is “yeah, but player A plays against tougher competition and gets tougher assignments” which is a valid argument to make. But how valid? The other day I looked at a simple, straight forward method [...]
One of the biggest omissions in my player rankings is making adjustments for zone start differences. We know that Manny Malhotra has a significant bias towards starting his shifts in the defensive zone and that his teammates Daniel and Henrik Sedin have a significant bias towards starting their shifts in the offensive zone. The result is Malhotra [...]
Brian Burke joined the Leafs in November of 2008. When he joined the Leafs he insisted he has no interest in a 5 year rebuild and expected he could make the team competitive much sooner. Let’s evaluate how Burke has done in his tenure as GM of the Maple Leafs. 2007-08 2011-12 GAA 3.08 (27th) [...]
Not sure what led me to look into this but I took a look at poor defensive teams making the playoffs in the eastern conference. Over the past 3 seasons there have been just 6 teams to make the playoffs in the eastern conference with goals against averages greater than 2.80. They are: Tampa Bay [...]
There has been a lot of talk over the last 24 hours about the possibility of the Maple Leafs trading Luke Schenn to the Philadelphia Flyers for James van Riemsdyk? Personally, I’d seriously consider it and probably do it, but lets take a look at the numbers. Luke Schenn HARO+ HARD+ FenHARO+ FenHARD+ Ozone% 2011-12 [...]
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David Johnson