Dion Phaneuf protecting a lead vs playing catch up

After last weeks untimely pinch by Dion Phaneuf in game 4 that led to an overtime goal and the Bruins taking a 3-1 lead in the first round series there was a lot of evaluation of Phaneuf as a defenseman both good and bad. I was intending to write an article to discuss the relative merits of Dion Phaneuf and attempt to get an idea of where he stands among NHL defensemen but in the process of researching that I came across some interesting Phaneuf stats that I think deserve their own post so here it is. My observation was

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How do high shooting percentage teams perform in playoffs?

With the win over the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night the Leafs have made the playoffs for the first time since the 2003-04 season and they are doing it largely on the backs of an elevated shooting percentage which currently sits at a lofty 10.52% (5v5 only). Here are all the teams with a 5v5 shooting percentage above 9.00% since 2007-08 season and how they have done in the playoffs. Season Team 5v5 Sh% Playoff Result 2012-13 Maple Leafs 10.52 Made playoffs 2012-13 Stars 10.04 Fighting for playoff spot (10th) 2011-12 Lightning 9.73 Missed Playoffs 2009-10 Capitals 10.39 Lost in

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Who are drags on the Maple Leafs possession game

Even though I am a proponent of shot quality and the idea that the percentages matter (shooting and save percentage) puck control and possession are still an important part of the game and the Maple Leafs are dreadful at it. One of the better easily available metrics for measuring possession is fenwick percentage (FF%) which is a measure of the percentage shot attempts (shots + shots that missed the net) that your team took. So a FF% of 52% would mean your team took 52% of the shots while the opposing team took 48% of the shots. During 5v5 situations

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Tyler Bozak by the numbers

If you follow me on twitter you know I am not a fan of Tyler Bozak and I have written about him in the past. As a Leaf fan I want to keep writing about his poor play because I really do not want to see him re-signed in Toronto. He isn’t a good player and simple does not deserve it, especially if he is going to be making upwards of $4M/yr on a 4+ year long contract.  Let’s take a look at how he ranks in a variety of categories over the previous 3 seasons combined as well as

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Toronto Maple Leafs shooting percentage is holding steady above 10%

The Toronto Maple Leafs shooting percentage has been predicted to fall for a couple of months now but it has held steady. I know that about 5-6 weeks ago the Leafs 5v5 shooting percentage was at 10.4% and I predicted it was sure to fall but as of this morning their 5v5 shooting percentage is even higher at 10.59%. Here is a graph of their 5v5 shooting percentage through out the season. League average 5v5 shooting percentage is normally just shy of 8% and the Leafs are about 33% higher than that which is incredibly high. Over the previous 5

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Visual WOWY representation of Jay McClement’s poor possession play

A few people didn’t like that I suggested that Jay McClement was a bad player in yesterday’s Mikhail Grabovski post so I thought I would provide a visual representation of McClement’s  mediocrity in the form of 5v5 Zone Start adjusted CF% WOWY charts for each of the past 6 seasons (this season included). Let’s start with this current season even though the sample size is relatively small and so the number of line mates with a reasonable number of minutes with McClement is relatively small. In this chart, it is better for McClement to have the bubbles below and to the

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Whats wrong with Mikhail Grabovski? Jay McClement!

Mikhail Grabovski is starting to get a little heat in Toronto. The other night against Winnipeg he benched for a good chunk of the game and people are starting to question what is wrong with Grabovski this season. Truth is, there is probably nothing wrong with Grabovski except for his line mate Jay McClement. When one looks at Grabovski’s stats this season you will actually see that his 5v5 Goals/60 is actually up this year to 0.946 goals per 60 minutes of play from 0.895 last year and 0.924 the year before so his 5v5 goal production is certainly there. It

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Clarke MacArthur Comparables…

Yesterday I posted an article on comparable players to Tyler Bozak so today I thought I’d tackle the Maple Leafs other key free agent forward, Clarke MacArthur. As with Bozak, I first looked at the offensive stats Goals/60, FirstAssists/60, Primary Points/60 and Primary Points % (percentage of goals scored while on the ice that the player had a goal or a first assist on). Here is a list of offensively comparable wingers: Player Name G/60 FirstA/60 PPts/60 PPts% TLUSTY, JIRI 1.094 0.501 1.595 53.01% PERRON, DAVID 0.991 0.521 1.512 55.75% MACARTHUR, CLARKE 0.979 0.513 1.492 55.20% SYKORA, PETR 0.916 0.593 1.509

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Tyler Bozak comparables…

There has been a fair bit of talk recently about Tyler Bozak and what the Leafs should do with him as he is clearly not suited for his #1C role but is set to be a UFA this summer and if the Leafs intend to keep him he’ll need a new contract.  To get an idea of his worth, I decided to see if I could identify a few comparable players. Let’s start off offensively. The first thing I looked at was primary points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time (primary points = goals + first assists). From last

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A Corsi vs Goal based evaluation of Francois Beauchemin

Over the past few years I have had a few discussions with other Leaf fans about the relative merits of Francois Beauchemin. Many Leaf fans argue that he was a good 2-way defenseman who can play tough minutes and is the kind of defenseman the Leafs are still in need of. I on the other hand have never had quite as optimistic view of Beauchemin and I don’t think he would make this team any better. On some level I think a part of the difference in opinion is that many look at his corsi numbers which aren’t too bad

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