Persistence and Predictability

There seems to be some confusion, or lack of clarity, about my post on corsi vs shooting percentage vs shooting rate the other day so let me clear it up in as straight forward a way as I can. “Hawerchuk” over at BehindTheNetHockey.com writes the following: “I’m not totally sure what he’s getting at. People use Fenwick because it’s persistent, and PDO because it’s not. Over the course of a single season, observed shooting and save percentage drive results, but they are not persistent.” Dirk Hoag over at OnTheForecheck.com writes: “Here’s an example of when NOT to use correlation as

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Goal Rates better than Corsi/Fenwick in Player Evaluation

The general consensus among advanced hockey statistic analyzers and is that corsi/fenwick stats are the best statistic for measuring player and team talent levels.  For those of you who are not aware of corsi and fenwick let me give you a quick definition.  Corsi numbers are the number of shots directed at the goal and include shots, missed shots and blocked shots.  Fenwick numbers are the same except it does not included blocked shots (just shots and missed shots).  I generally look at fenwick and will do that here but fenwick and corsi are very highly correlated to the results

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Player Evaluation Model Improvements

On Monday I outlined an all-encompassing player evaluation model that allows us to evaluate every forward, defenseman and goalie under the same methodology.  In short, the system compares how many goals are scored for and against while a player is on the ice and compares it to how many goals scored for/against one should expect based on the quality of his line mates and opposition.  That model, I believe, makes a reasonable attempt at evaluating a players performance, but it can be improved. The first method of improvement is to utilize the additional information we have about the quality of

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Draft Picks on Current Rosters

I am a believer that most people over-rate the draft as a tool to building a successful team. This is not to say that I don’t think it is an important tool, but rather that it isn’t the only tool and probably not the most important tool. Successful teams, even in the post-lockout NHL, can and have been built significantly through trades and free agent signings. I looked at every teams current rosters and added up how many players on the roster was drafted by that team. For forwards and defensemen the player must have played 20 games this year

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Re-introducing stats.hockeyanalysis.com

Well, after a couple of days of work I have managed to re-design my stats website which to be honest, was pretty much non-existant and/or non-usable before this update. I have put the power rankings, player rankings, and adjusted hits/giveaways/takeaways, and player on ice/off ice and with/without teammate and against/not against opponent data on that website. In a few days I will migrate much of that off of this blog site and move it there where it will be easier to update which means far more frequent updates. For the regulars to this website, please head over there and take

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Evaluating defence and goaltending revisited

A couple weeks ago I posted an article about the Leafs defence and how it isn’t as bad as many people think. Well, since then I have been working on trying to improve on the methodology by including shot type (slap shot, wrist shot, snap shot, tip in, backhand, wraparound) and in that process I found a few mistakes/issues in what I did previously. First, I found a bug in my program that caused a number of powerplay goals to be considered even strength goals. When I fixed this the general conclusions of that article remained in tact though the

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Draft Day Tomorrow

It is draft day tomorrow so I figured it would be a good idea to refer everyone to a simple draft analysis I conducted a year or so ago. It basically gives everyone an indication of what to expect from players based on where they are drafted (i.e. top 5, top 10, mid first round, late first round, etc.) but everyone should remember that this is supposedly a weak draft so the chances of a player making an impact in the NHL are probably even lower (at least for first round picks).

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Leafs Defence Doesn’t Suck

Note: I have produced a followup article to this one that corrects some small mistakes I made with respect to counting some PP goals as even strength goals, factors in shot type, and better deals with some biases that are present in the NHL statistics. Feel free to read the article below but be sure to also read the followup article which I would consider a much more reliable evaluation of defence and goaltending in the NHL. I don’t know how many gazillion times I have heard people say that the Leafs defence sucks big time and is the reason

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Introducing stats.hockeyanalysis.com

I had been planning on doing this for a while but finally got around to it the past few days. I have set up a new subdomain at stats.hockeyanalysis.com where I am going to post all sorts of statistics. The first statistics are for the 2006-07 season and contain team goals for and against data for players while that player was on the ice. If you then click on a players name you can find out who that player has played with and against and how much ice time they played together or against each other. Also contained in the

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Goalies stealing or giving away games

One can look at team goals against average and save percentage to get an idea of how good or bad a teams goaltending is but I wanted to get a better idea of how much each team has been affected by good or bad goaltending. As a quick and easy way of doing this I defined as either of the following: a game in which the team scored 2 or fewer goals, allowed 30 or more shots and won a game in which the team scored 3 goals and allowed 35 or more shots and won. It is a pretty

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