Leafs Off Season: Search for a Defenseman

As it stands right now the Leafs have six NHL experienced defensemen under contract and another three who are restricted free agents.  Assuming all three of the RFA’s get re-signed it leaves the Leafs with 7 defensemen, five of which will be regulars (Phaneuf, Schenn, Gunnarsson, Aulie and Komisarek) and two that are more along the lines of depth defensemen (Lebda and Lashoff).  Phaneuf and Schenn are the top two guys (though they may not end up playing together) and depending on where you see Gunnarsson and Aulie fitting into the mix the Leafs will be looking for a #3,

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Persistence and Predictability

There seems to be some confusion, or lack of clarity, about my post on corsi vs shooting percentage vs shooting rate the other day so let me clear it up in as straight forward a way as I can. “Hawerchuk” over at BehindTheNetHockey.com writes the following: “I’m not totally sure what he’s getting at. People use Fenwick because it’s persistent, and PDO because it’s not. Over the course of a single season, observed shooting and save percentage drive results, but they are not persistent.” Dirk Hoag over at OnTheForecheck.com writes: “Here’s an example of when NOT to use correlation as

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Goal Rates better than Corsi/Fenwick in Player Evaluation

The general consensus among advanced hockey statistic analyzers and is that corsi/fenwick stats are the best statistic for measuring player and team talent levels.  For those of you who are not aware of corsi and fenwick let me give you a quick definition.  Corsi numbers are the number of shots directed at the goal and include shots, missed shots and blocked shots.  Fenwick numbers are the same except it does not included blocked shots (just shots and missed shots).  I generally look at fenwick and will do that here but fenwick and corsi are very highly correlated to the results

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Diary of a Rumour Monger

There is a good chance that Mats Sundin will make an announcement on his future within the next week or so so lets check out some earlier chatter from the internets most notorious (and hugely inaccurate) rumour monger Eklund. May 25: I am told very clearly that Mats looks like he wants to play again. And he should. He looked very good last year and the heart he showed down the stretch was phenomenal. The stuff of movies. Although several sources are saying Mats wants to stay in Canada, he may opt for the Border cities of Buffalo and Detroit.

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Avery, Laviolette, Maurice, Toskala, Flames Blogger and more…

Just wanted to make a few comments on several recent happenings in the NHL and here at HockeyAnalysis.com. Sean Avery: It is time that someone really put this guy in his place and I think it is really going to happen. Everyone is getting tired of his act and most importantly his teammates and his teams owner is getting tired of his act. His main ally within the Stars organization was Brett Hull and Hull is now saying his antics of yesterday stepped over the line and goes beyond hockey. I am not sure what the Stars franchise will do

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What might Burke do?

So Brian Burke is set to officially, and finally, take over the Leafs general manager position this afternoon. So, what does that mean in the short, medium and long term? Let’s take a look at what Brian Burke might do. When Brian Burke took over the GM position of the Anaheim Ducks in 2005 he inherited a relatively bad team, not unlike the Leafs. But, unlike the Leafs, there was a lot of high end talent in the system like Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Dustin Penner, etc. and he also had an elite level goalie which went a long way

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Toronto Radio Interview

Just want to let everyone know that I will be doing a radio segment on The Bill Watters Show today at 5:10 eastern on AM640 in Toronto, Home of the Leafs, to discuss HockeyAnalysis.com and maybe some other hockey related stuff. Bill Watters is off on vacation this week so I will be chatting with guest host Bill Hayes, who apparently is a fan of the site. For those in Toronto you can tune in at AM 640, those elsewhere should be able to get a live feed at http://640toronto.com. Update: You can hear the AM640 interview here.

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League Revenues, the Loonie and the Salary Cap

On Monday NHL Players Associations Executive Director Paul Kelly was on Prime Time Sports with Bob McCown discussing several topics but of particular interest was the light he shed on NHL revenues, the contribution of Canadian teams to those revenues, and the impact of the Canadian dollar on those revenues. You can listen to the complete interview but let me summarize. He stated that 27% of all league revenues are generated by the 6 Canadian NHL franchises and that of the 12% revenue growth the league saw last season, one quarter, or approximately 3% growth, was attributed to the rise

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Tough times for Canadian teams

I have written here several times before but I think it deserves repeating because this is could be a major issue in the months and possibly years to come and could have a significant negative impact on the smaller Canadian NHL franchises. The issue is the falling Canadian dollar. A season ago the dollar averaged fairly close to parity. Right now the Canadian dollar has dropped below 79 cents in US dollar terms. This is real bad news for teams like the Calgary Flames, Ottawa Senators and Edmonton Oilers, all of whom struggled for their survival in the late 1990’s

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Koules Satisfied, Parrish Likes Vancouver

Despite the fact that the Lightning defense still seems a little suspect, boasting little veteran presence or even a big name, Oren Koules maintains that he is satisfied with his current defensive corps. The Lightning still have to get under the cap enough to ensure that they can accommodate Steven Stamkos‘ cap hit, which would be 3.75 should he reach all performance bonuses. Remember that this upcoming season is the last year of the current CBA agreement, and that there will be no performance cushions. Nashville, as noted in the article, remains a very enticing trading partner, with 13 draft

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