Roles and Stats Part III: Roles and Defensive Stats – Forwards

This is part three of my series on how roles impact statistics. In Part I I looked at a brief history of the debate and also described the methods used in this research. The history section is optional but I recommend reading the methods portion as it describes the statistics and methods used which will not be discussed in great detail here. The second post in the series looked at the relationship between roles and offensive statistics (GF60 Rel, CF60 Rel, and Sh% Rel) for forwards. In this third post I will look at the defensive statistics (GA60 Rel, CA60 Rel and Sv% Rel)

» Read more

Roles and Stats Part II: Roles and Offensive Stats – Forwards

This is part two of my series on how roles impact statistics. In Part I I looked at a brief history of the debate and also described the methods used in this research. The history section is optional but I recommend reading the methods portion as it describes the statistics and methods used which will not be repeated in great detail here. This second post in the series will look at the relationship between roles and offensive statistics (GF60 Rel, CF60 Rel, and Sh% Rel) for forwards. Leading and Trailing TOI% The chart above looks at the relationship between leading and trailing ice

» Read more

Roles and Stats Part I: Background and Methodology

This is the first of what will be a series of posts on the impact of roles on stats with a particular interest in the impact of roles on shooting and save percentages. Background My involvement in hockey analytics has been somewhat outside of the main stream. I am a firm believer in shot quality and the ability of players to influence on-ice shooting and save percentages while hockey analytics has generally trended (almost exclusively) towards puck possession metrics like Corsi. As a result, over the years I have fought many battles with many people on shot quality starting first with

» Read more

Warren Buffett on Brandon Sutter

Yesterday I wrote about Brandon Sutter and his seemingly very good defensive ability in response to @DTMAboutHeart‘s comment that he was a below replacement level defensive player. The counter argument that @DTMAboutHeart (and others) put put is that Save % is all random and it infects goals against data with mass randomness that will inherently lead to outcomes like Sutter’s goals against stats that have no basis in talent. Exhibit A of this yesterday came in the form of a quote from Warren Buffett. Here is Warren Buffett’s take on the idea NHL players can influence SV% pic.twitter.com/LGwlozW3wD — DTM About

» Read more

The Brandon Sutter Litmus Test

Today on twitter @DTMAboutHeart made a comment that Brandon Sutter is a below replacement level defensive player. Every year since 2009 Brandon Sutter’s defense has rated below replacement level — DTM About Heart (@DTMAboutHeart) July 15, 2016 Based on this comment I would like to propose this as a litmus test for whether you are doing hockey analytics correctly or not. Before I get to that, let me put out a pretty simple claim. If you are a below replacement level defensive player it ought to manifest itself in a high goals against average, probably among the highest on your team. I don’t

» Read more

Who is Adam Larsson?

Let’s for a moment set aside the fact that the Oilers traded away maybe one of the top 5 offensive players in the league in Taylor Hall and lets take a look at what they acquired in Adam Larsson. Adam Larsson was drafted 4th overall in the 2011 NHL draft so he was a highly regarded defenseman entering the league. He immediately started his NHL career and played the majority of the 2011-12 and 2012-13 (lockout shortened) seasons with the Devils with decent but mixed results. He was probably rushed to the NHL too soon. In 2013-14 he split time

» Read more

Corsi vs Goals when predicting conference finalists

Every year I’ll see a tweet like the following and while they frustrates me it also shows me peoples biases. NHL teams that made conference finals ranked No. 2, 6, 7, 8 in score-adjusted Corsi% during regular season. pic.twitter.com/AhJTRQYMHg — Neil Greenberg (@ngreenberg) May 13, 2016 It shows peoples biases because clearly Neil is attempting to defend Corsi, something he has invested himself in over the years, by showing the value of Corsi in predicting conference finalists. It is frustrating because it isn’t really telling us the whole story. Sure, seeing #2, #6, #7, and #8 teams make the semi-finals seems

» Read more

Review of Beleskey and Williams impact on save percentages

Last off season two of the better wingers on the unrestricted free agent market were Matt Beleskey and Justin Williams. In the analytics community Williams is generally lauded as a possession king and and undervalued player while Beleskey was pointed out as the unrestricted free agent most likely to be over paid (turned out he ended up with a lower than expected deal but still some figured he was still over paid). At the time I wrote a summary of these two free agent wingers and said while Williams had dominant possession statistics he has generally had a negative impact on his

» Read more

Who Deserves the Norris Trophy?

The NHL award that seems to be generating the most interest and discussion this season is the Norris Trophy given to the best defenseman. In some circles Drew Doughty seems to be the favourite because he is having a great season in a great career on a team having a great year. Others are picking Erik Karlsson because of his dominant offensive season for a defenseman, one that few defensemen can match in the history of the game. Brent Burns is having almost as good of an offensive season but for a playoff team so his name gets thrown into

» Read more

Anecdotes and validating statistical models

I often get criticized by others in the hockey analytics community, particularly on twitter, when I through out a piece of data that runs counter to conventional analytical thinking and raise a question as to whether it means something or not. Sometimes I do it because I believe in what I am saying but other times I do it because I think we should constantly be challenging and testing current conventional wisdom. That is how we learn new things. We make observations, we ask questions about their relevance, we investigate and we either toss out the new idea or we

» Read more
1 2 3 4 106