More on anecdotes, evidence and Corsi

Last night Tyler Dellow criticized me for using ‘anecdotes’ to come up with an idea (not a conclusion or a proof, more of a hypothesis) that by improving Corsi it might have a negative impact on your shooting percentage. Also last night James Mirtle retweeted an April tweet of his looking at the relationship between possession and Corsi and it was retweeted several times. Here is that tweet: On the surface it sounds like pretty resounding evidence. Corsi is king! Corsi rules the NHL! Long live Corsi! The problem is, this is solely backward looking and is only focused on

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Anecdotes, evidence, and open mindedness

Within a couple of minutes of posting my last article on the Corsi and shooting percentages of Carolina and the Maple Leafs there were a couple of back-handed attacks to the post from Tyler Dellow. First, clearly Dellow didn’t fully comprehend the article because I didn’t include any direct commentary on the goal scoring of the Hurricanes and in no way did I imply anything had a correlation of -0.98 with goal scoring at 5v5. Specifically, the correlation was between CF% and shooting percentage and both those statistics include a component that factors into goal scoring. In fact, CF% and shooting

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Corsi and Shooting Percentage of Hurricanes and Maple Leafs

I have frequently wondered if there is an inverse correlation between Corsi and Shooting percentage and have written about it several times in the past specifically with how coaching changes impact these statistics. For example, last season and investigated how coaching changes impacted the teams Corsi and shooting percentage. In the summer though I looked at three teams that we know employed analytics at the coaching level – Toronto, Carolina and Edmonton. In that article I showed that each of those teams improved their Corsi in 2014-15 over 2013-14 but that they also all saw a drop in their team shooting percentage.

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A word on NHL.com’s Enhanced Stats

For those that follow hockey analytics you are probably fully aware of Travis Yost’s recent comments on the enhanced stats pages on NHL.com. Today Greg Wyshynski chimed into the debate with a summary of the situation along with more comments from Yost as well as from Chris Foster of the NHL. The comments from Foster has generated a fair bit of buzz from the hockey analytics community and in particular his comments about “close” stats which Yost railed on earlier. “Years ago, smart people recognized that simply throwing out data for the sake of correcting for score effects was inefficient.

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