A look at free agent wingers Williams, Semin and Beleskey

I am sure this post will rattle some feathers in the Hockey Analytics community but hey, it won’t be the first time I have accomplished that. I have been looking through the list of potential free agents looking for players that are possibly under valued, possibly over valued, or otherwise interesting for one reason or another. There has been a fair bit of discussion around the three players that are the focus of this post. Justin Williams has been a favourite of the hockey analytics community posting outstanding Corsi numbers year after year. Alexander Semin, who was bought out by the

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TOI% Correlations with Rel Stats

Yesterday I looked at what statistics TOI% correlates with which will give us an indication of how coaches distribute ice time to their players. It has occurred to me that TOI% is really a “Rel” statistic in the sense that TOI% gets handed out to players based on how the players compare to the rest of the team and not the rest of the league. So, in comparing TOI% to overall stats such as GF%, CF%, Sh% I am not really comparing apples to oranges. TOI% is a statistic relative to the players teammates while those other stats are relative to

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What else does TOI% correlate with?

A few days ago I wrote a post looking at whether scoring chances and high danger scoring chances does a very good job at explaining variations in on-ice shooting percentages among NHL forwards. The short answer is that they do explain some of it (scoring chances better than high danger scoring chances) but is still a long way from being an ideal explanatory variable. We know that because I found that TOI% (the percentage of ice time the coach assigns to the player) had a far better correlation with shooting percentages. In this post I want to take a look

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Evaluating SCF and HSCF and our ability to quantify shot quality

This past season War on Ice introduced two new shot quality metrics – Scoring Chances (SC) and High Danger Scoring Chances (HSC) which are defined here.  Stephen Burtch has previously evaluated this scoring chances with respect to their ability to predict future goal scoring and goal differentials and found them to be a better predictor than traditional possession statistics. As a strong believer in shot quality I am not surprised by this conclusion but with this post I want to take a closer look at really how well these metrics are at measuring shot quality. The premise underlying this analysis is

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Persistence of Sv%RelTM and failure of statistical models in hockey analytics

Over the last several days I have tweeted several times (here, here and here) about my Sv%RelTM statistic which can be found on Puckalytics.com which generated some interest from my followers as well as some skeptics.   Seen Sv% rel team thrown out a few times in the past couple days–hoping to get a chance to dig into it more later this week, but an initial — Jason (@Jay32600) June 1, 2015 Obviously this is a miniture sample so I’m hoping to do multi year later this week, but I’m skeptical of the usefullness. — Jason (@Jay32600) June 1, 2015 The

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