The Value of Outliers

Ryan Stimson has been doing some valuable work tracking passes and this morning he posted an interesting analysis of the data he (and others) have collected thus far. It is a very interesting article and definitely worth a read. It is a valuable contribution to shot quality research but the article created some twitter discussion regarding one of the techniques that Ryan used. In particular, when Stimson was looking at the correlation between two variables (i.e. passing ability vs shooting percentage) he noticed that there was often an outlier team and he would subsequently look at the correlation between the two variables while

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Corsi, Shooting Percentage and Coaching Changes

On the weekend I posted an article looking at the relationship between Corsi and Shooting percentage and suggested that good Corsi teams are often poor Shooting Percentage teams and that there is generally a negative correlation between Corsi and Shooting percentage. This relationship seems to hold for most teams except for the elite teams or the truly bad teams. Yesterday over at MapleLeafsHotStove.com I looked at this relationship just prior to, during, and just after the Randy Carlyle coaching era and it seemed to hold true (to some extent) for the Leafs during that time period. These kind of relationships

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Possession, Shooting Percentage and Outlier Teams

Shot quality as a talent at the team or player on-ice level has long been a topic of great debate and I outlined some of that debate in an article I wrote earlier in the week. For those who don’t believe that shot quality is a significant factor in performance put a lot of stock in possession metrics such as Fenwick or Corsi. These are shot attempt based metrics and as such ignore shot quality altogether. For those, like myself, who believe shot quality matters (at least for some teams and especially some players) I consider a possession based analysis a (potentially)

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How important is shot location in shot quality?

Let me start off by first saying that this isn’t going to be a research post as much as it will be a commentary on the past, present and future of shot quality research. The History I have had more than a few battles on shot quality so I feel I have a more than decent understanding on the subject. As outlined in this post by Michael Schuckers there are two aspects of shot quality. These are, the quality of an individual shot and the average shot quality of all shots taken by a team or a player when on

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