2014-15 vs 2013-14 Rush Shots and shooting/save percentages

I have mentioned on twitter how I was looking at rush shots as a percentage of overall shots and how teams have fared compared to last season. Here is how the teams have done from an offensive perspective.

Team RushShot% For Diff Sh% Diff
NY Rangers 7.24% 2.47%
Arizona 6.07% 0.92%
San Jose 5.89% -0.01%
Edmonton 5.64% -1.23%
Buffalo 5.02% 2.70%
Washington 3.64% 0.65%
Anaheim 3.10% -2.09%
Calgary 2.83% -0.33%
Pittsburgh 2.71% 0.72%
Columbus 2.51% -0.23%
New Jersey 2.37% 1.57%
Vancouver 2.31% 1.32%
Winnipeg 2.21% -1.71%
Montreal 1.52% -0.11%
Los Angeles 1.43% 1.09%
Minnesota 1.21% 1.12%
St. Louis 1.20% -1.16%
Ottawa 0.96% -0.04%
Florida 0.88% -2.26%
Dallas 0.81% 0.89%
Tampa Bay 0.48% 1.90%
Detroit -1.35% 0.08%
Carolina -1.64% -1.04%
Philadelphia -1.68% 0.91%
Chicago -1.71% 0.71%
Colorado -2.79% -2.84%
Boston -3.35% 0.88%
NY Islanders -3.37% 1.31%
Toronto -3.77% 1.62%
Nashville -3.97% 1.13%

In this table RushShot% For Diff is the difference between this seasons 5v5 road RushShots/TotalShots – last years. A positive number indicates a higher percentage of their shots are coming on the rush this season and a negative number indicates a lower percentage. Sh% Diff is the difference in 5v5 Road shooting percentage between this season and last season (positive means improved shooting percentage).

Rush shots are generally tougher shots and thus one would expect a higher percentage of rush shots for would boost team shooting percentage. For some teams like the Rangers, Arizona and Buffalo this is true while for others like Edmonton this hasn’t held up. Certainly sample size and randomness are an issue here as are roster changes. Overall the correlation between the two stats is 0.067 which isn’t great.

Here are comparable stats from a defensive standpoint.

Team RushShot%Against Diff Sv% Diff
Colorado 6.33% -0.37%
Minnesota 4.13% -1.41%
Montreal 4.05% 1.69%
Chicago 3.82% 1.61%
Carolina 3.10% -2.74%
Boston 3.08% -1.65%
Pittsburgh 3.01% 1.82%
Los Angeles 2.74% -2.37%
Edmonton 2.55% -2.29%
Anaheim 2.55% 0.68%
Toronto 2.09% -0.38%
Arizona 2.06% -1.87%
Washington 2.05% 1.78%
Nashville 1.07% 3.53%
Ottawa 0.94% -0.09%
San Jose 0.82% 0.95%
Columbus 0.50% -0.06%
Winnipeg 0.49% 1.33%
Dallas 0.21% -0.66%
Vancouver 0.10% -0.01%
New Jersey -0.08% 1.87%
Philadelphia -0.42% 0.41%
Tampa Bay -1.38% -1.93%
Detroit -1.66% 1.05%
Buffalo -1.76% -0.69%
Calgary -2.41% 1.55%
NY Rangers -2.93% 0.13%
St. Louis -3.36% 0.22%
NY Islanders -3.66% -0.44%
Florida -6.51% 3.28%

Here we would expect a higher RushShot Against Differential to lead to a lower save percentage as more rush shots against should lead to a higher average shot quality against. We see a higher correlation here than on the offensive side of things as the correlation between the two stats is -0.275.

I’ll revisit these tables as the season progresses to see if the correlations improve but the observations are interesting nonetheless.

(Note: See here for all my articles on rush shots from the summer. Of particular interest is the introduction to rush shots and why, with how I have defined rush shots, we are limited to using road data.)