Leafs, Kings and Devils – Rush goals and shooting percentage
Tyler Dellow has an interesting post on differences between the Kings and Leafs offensive production. He comes at the problem from a slightly different angle than I have explored in my rush shot series so definitely go give it a read. These two paragraphs discuss a theory of Dellow’s that is interesting.
That’s the sort of thing that can affect a team’s shooting percentage. To take it to an extreme, teams shot 6.2% in the ten seconds after an OZ faceoff win this year; the league average shooting percentage at 5v5 is more like 8%. Of course, when you win an offensive zone draw, you start with the puck but the other team has five guys back and in front of you.
I wonder whether there isn’t something like that going on here that explains LA’s persistent struggles with shooting percentage (as well as those of New Jersey, another team that piles up Corsi but can’t score – solving this problem is one of the burning questions in hockey analytics at the moment). It’s a theory, but one that seems to fit with what Eric’s suggested about how LA generates the bulk of their extra shots. It’s hard for me to explain the Leafs scoring so many more goals in the first 11 seconds after a puck has been carried in, particularly given that I suspect that LA, by virtue of their possession edge, probably enjoyed many more carries into the offensive zone overall.
Earlier today I posted some team rush statistics for the past 7 and past 3 seasons. Let’s look in a little more detail how the Leafs, Kings and Devils performed over the past 3 seasons.
The Leafs scored the most goals on the rush despite the fewest rush shots due to a vastly better shooting percentage (nearly 50% better than the Devils and Kings) on the rush. They do not generate more shots on the rush, but do seem to generate higher quality shots.
The Kings generate by far the most shots in non-rush situations but have the poorest shooting percentage and thus do not score a ton of goals. The Devils don’t generate many non-rush shots and don’t have a great non-rush shooting percentage either and thus posted the fewest goals. The Leafs have had the same number of shots as the Devils but a significantly higher shooting percentage than the Devils and thus scored significantly more non-rush goals.
The Leafs scored 34% of their goals on the rush compared to 32% for the Kings and 30% for the Devils.
Are the Leafs a good rush team? Well, only Boston has scored more 5v5 road rush goals than the Leafs so probably yes but it is mostly because of finishing talent, not shot generating talent. They are 4th last in 5v5 road rush shots.
The Ducks have very similar offense to the Leafs. They don’t get many rush shots but post a really high rush shooting percentage. Anaheim generate a few more non-rush shots than the Leafs but they are very similar offense.
The Kings are a slightly better rush team than the Devils but neither are good and both are weak shooting percentage teams regardless of whether it is a rush or non-rush shot. The Kings make up for this though by generating a lot of shots from offensive zone play where as the Devil’s don’t.