Can last years statistics predict this years playoff teams?
As of last night games all 16 playoff teams have been determined. Before I get into any playoff predictions, lets take a look at how last seasons 5v5 close statistics do at predicting who would make the playoffs this season.
The above table shows last years 5v5close GF% and CF% and the teams in red are this years playoff teams.
There were 15 teams with a CF% above 50% last year, 9 of them made the playoffs this year while 6 missed. Of the remaining 15 teams that had sub 50% CF% last year, 7 of them made the playoffs this year while 8 missed. Seven of the top 10 CF% teams last year made the playoffs while 5 of the bottom 10 teams made the playoffs and 5 missed.
There were 18 teams last year with at least 50% GF% and 11 made the playoffs this season while 7 missed. Of the 12 teams that failed to reach 50% GF% last season, 5 made the playoffs and 11 missed. Seven of the top 10 GF% teams made the playoffs last season while 7 of the bottom 10 missed the playoffs.
Difficult to say one was significantly better than the other. Truth is, neither was particularly good but with 7 of the bottom 9 GF% teams last year missing the playoffs this year that might be enough to give GF% a slight edge. That said, the better predictor might have been last seasons point totals.