Apr 162013
 

If you follow me on twitter you know I am not a fan of Tyler Bozak and I have written about him in the past. As a Leaf fan I want to keep writing about his poor play because I really do not want to see him re-signed in Toronto. He isn’t a good player and simple does not deserve it, especially if he is going to be making upwards of $4M/yr on a 4+ year long contract.  Let’s take a look at how he ranks in a variety of categories over the previous 3 seasons combined as well as this season.

Statistic 3yr 2012-13
5v5 G/60 219/324 130/310
5v5 A/60 168/324 144/310
5v5 Pts/60 199/324 139/310
5v5 IGP 265/324 195/310
5v5 IAP 202/324 221/310
5v5 IPP 288/324 268/310
5v5 FF20 155/324 173/310
5v5 FA20 319/324 309/310
5v5 FF% 275/324 291/310
5v4 G/60 116/155 57/147
5v4 A/60 144/155 98/147
5v4 Pts/60 150/155 89/147
5v4 IGP 76/155 66/147
5v4 IAP 131/155 110/147
5v4 IPP 139/155 114/147

The above are his rankings among other forwards (i.e. 219/324 means 219th among 324 forwards with >1500 5v5 3yr minutes, >300 5v5 2012-13 minutes, >400 5v4 3yr minutes and >75 5v4 2012-13 minutes.  2012-13 stats for games up to but not including last nights).  For 5v5 ice time we are essentially talking the top 10-11 forwards on each team, or their regulars and on the power play we are talking the top 5 forwards in PP ice time per team.

In 3-year 5v5 goals, assists and points per 60 minutes of play Tyler Bozak is ranking approximately the equivalent of a good 3rd line player. The thing is, he is doing that while playing on the first line but his terrible IGP, IAP, and IPP numbers indicate he is doing a terrible job keeping pace with his fellow first line mates.  If you look at his 3 year fenwick numbers (FF20, FA20 and FF%) which are on-ice stats you see when Tyler Bozak has been on the ice the Leafs have been mediocre at shot generation and terrible at shot prevention. Only a handful (literally, just 5 players) have a worse shot prevention record when they are on the ice.

On the power play things aren’t much better. He is second powerplay unit material at best but he is near the bottom of the pack in every assist and point generation and only a bit better in goal production.

Overall his numbers look a little better in 2012-13 but they certainly aren’t much to write home about, especially his IGP, IAP and IPP. He still looks to be a 3rd line offensive player with terrible defensive ability.

Another thing we can look at is his WOWY numbers with his most frequent line mate Phil Kessel.

Bozak w/Kessel Bozak wo/ Kessel
3yr GF20 0.874 0.648
3yr GA20 0.995 1.297
3yr GF% 46.8% 33.3%
3yr CF20 19.60 17.43
3yr CA20 20.89 20.82
3yr CF% 48.4% 45.6%
2012-13 GF20 0.956 0.000
2012-13 GA20 0.918 0.419
2012-13 GF% 51.0% 0.0%
2012-13 CF20 19.50 8.38
2012-13 CA20 21.53 25.55
2012-13 CF% 47.5% 24.7%

When Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak are on the ice together they are not even breaking even. When Tyler Bozak is on the ice without Kessel they are significantly worse. Individually, Tyler Bozak has scored just 3 of his 26 5v5 goals (11.5%) and 8 of his 68 points (11.8%) over the previous 3 seasons when separated from Kessel despite playing nearly 20% of his ice time apart from Kessel. When not with Kessel his goal and point production drops significantly and as we know from above it wasn’t all that impressive to start with.

Not shown are Phil Kessel’s numbers when he isn’t playing with Tyler Bozak but they are generally better than when they are together. Phil Kessel when not playing with Tyler Bozak has a GF% of 50.4% and a CF% of 51.5% over the previous 3 seasons. Tyler Bozak appears to be a drag on Kessel’s offense.

The only argument you can for keeping Bozak is that the Kessel-Bozak-Lupul/JVR line has been productive and is working so why break them up. To me that argument only works when Bozak is making $1.5M and is not a significant drag on the salary cap but you can’t be paying a player $3.5-4M to essentially be a place holder between Kessel and Lupul/JVR.

Related News Article: James Mirtle wrote an article on the tough decision Leaf management has regarding the re-signing of Tyler Bozak.

(I am going to try and include a glossary in my posts for advanced statistics mentioned in the post so those not familiar with advanced stats can find out what they mean but a full glossary can also be found here).

Glossary

  • G/60 – Goals scored per 60 minutes of play
  • A/60 – Assists per 60 minutes of play
  • Pts/60 – Points per 60 minutes of play
  • IGP – Percentage of teams goals while player was on ice that were scored by the player
  • IAP – Percentage of teams goals while player was on the ice that the player had an assist on
  • IPP – Percentage of teams goals while player was on the ice that player scored or had an assist on
  • FF20 – Fenwick (shots + missed shots) by team per 20 minutes of ice time
  • FA20 – Fenwick (shots + missed shots) against team per 20 minutes of ice time
  • FF% – % of all shot attempts (shots + missed shots) while on ice that the players team took – FF/(FF+FA)
  • GF20, GA20, GF% – same as FF20, FA20, FF% except for goals
  • CF20, CA20, CF% – same as FF20, FA20, FF% but also includes shot attempts that were blocked (corsi)

 

  4 Responses to “Tyler Bozak by the numbers”

  1.  

    Totally wrong, as Bozak plays so go the leafs, his effort has been the backbone of this team.
    When you conclude all the stats, offence and defence, he is among the top centers in the NHL.
    They have to resign him at $4.5.

  2.  

    P.S. now other leaf can score in the shootout.

  3.  

    Hello David, I’ve been working on a stat using your data. I’m looking for a player’s Corsi against opponents with positive Corsi and negative Corsi. That way I can tell who is a good two way player and who is simply bum-slaying.

    So I look at opponents Corsi when not against the particular player. I break that into the two groups, one for opponents with a positive Corsi and one with a negative Corsi. Then I look at what the player averages from actual results for each of the two groups.

    As an example, Tyler Bozak has a 41% adj for ZS Corsi against good Corsi players and a 48% Adj for ZS number against negative players. So Bozak is a negative Corsi player even against other team’s negative Corsi players. So your top line is NOT even out-possessing other teams when facing lower line opponents. And might not even stack up well, possession wise, to good quality checking lines.

    To me there are three groups of centers. Those that are quality two way centers, those that lose to the quality centers but can bum-slay against lower level competition and those that lose against everybody. Bozak is in the third tier.

    You might want to look at centers around the league and put them into each of those three categories. Then you can show Bozak’s performance compared to players with similar performance. Similar players to him are NOT in the top six and NOT in the 4M+ range. At least not on the good teams.

  4.  

    You can come to the same conclusion just by watching him play but its nice to have some statistical data to back that up.

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